The Bullseye – BMW PGA Championship

Ryan Baroff
By Ryan Baroff May 22, 2018 14:17

It’s been a really stellar season thus far for the European Tour picks, capped off by picking a winner at last week’s Belgian Knockout with Adrian Otaegui (hopefully you guys follow me on Twitter!). Now we’re back to a regular stroke play event, and one of Europe’s biggest tournaments. The field is missing some regulars, but we still have plenty of star-power in Rory McIlroy, Paul Casey, Tommy Fleetwood, Alex Noren, Branden Grace, Ian Poulter, and Rafa Cabrera-Bello.

The European Tour’s flagship tournament returns to the West Course at Wentworth, where it’s been hosted for many, many years. There were some changes to the course last season worth mentioning, but the meat of the course is the same. They’ve removed some bunkers, changed a couple of green complexes, and are planning to firm up the greens a bit. Ultimately, the course is still a ball-striker’s paradise, and I expect the usual suspects to pop up on the leaderboard. Wentworth is a par-72 measuring nearly 7,300 yards, and has a lot of trouble lurking for the players. You’ll see everything from eagles (maybe a couple aces) to quadruple bogeys this season. Last year, Alex Noren stormed to a Sunday 62 to win the event and supplant himself as one of Europe’s biggest stars. This event has been a springboard for several players, including Matteo Manassero, Byeong-Hun An, Chris Wood, and Noren.

Because this is a ball-striker’s course, I’m going to focus on veterans instead of rookies. We tend to see a lot of the same names play well here every year, and this should be no exception. With the addition of European Tour strokes gained stats, we have some extra data to help us find guys who have been playing well of late. Statistically, here’s what I’m targeting at Wentworth:


  • Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green
  • Strokes Gained Approach
  • Greens in Regulation
  • Birdie Average

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Ryan Baroff
By Ryan Baroff May 22, 2018 14:17

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