The Albatross – FanDuel DFS Golf Preview – WGC Mexico Championship

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Fantasy Golf Insider Beat the Experts FanDuel Contest

 

Before I breakdown the World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship and the 65 golfers that will tee it up in Mexico City, Mexico, be sure to click on the “Fantasy Golf Insider Beat the Experts FanDuel Contest” link above and get an entry into this exclusive FGI contest over on FanDuel.  FanDuel continues to give the contest a nice bump from 75 total entries initially to 150 so it is important that it fills.  This is a great contest to gauge your PGA DFS skills competing against the team here at FGI without putting too much at risk with your bankroll.  Furthermore, FanDuel has been running decent contest sizes and hopefully they will continue to grow with more interest because frequent readers of this column know that I have a pretty decent track record of identifying quality player pools that gives Team FGI a significant advantage over the competition.  This week should be no different for the World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship.

The World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship returns to the Club de Golf Chapultepec for the second straight year.  Played at 7,500 feet above sea level, the course plays longer than the 7,345 yards it measures at so distance control will be key for golfers looking to be in contention come Sunday afternoon.  A solid tee-to-green game is necessary since tall trees surround most of the holes and landing the ball close to the pin will help reduce the pressure of putting on the stingy greens here.  Overall, the golfers who figure out their distances the quickest and also convert on their scoring chances within 10 feet will be the ones at the top of the leaderboard.

The FGI PGA Interactive Model is going to assist us with our lineup building process because it identifies the best golfers with solid Current Form and whose Key Stats set up nicely for the Club de Golf Chapultepec.  It also allows us to factor in Course History as well as an emphasis on Vegas (odds to win).  Below are the FGI PGA Interactive Model Overall weights I will be using this week along with the Key Stats weights for the World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship provided by our friends at Fantasy Golf Metrics:

 

FGI PGA Interactive Model Overall weights:

                Current Form: 30%

                Key Stats: 40%

                Vegas: 20%

                Course History: 10%

 

FGI PGA Interactive Model Key Stats weights:

                SGT2G: 30%

                SGOTT: 5%

                SGP: 20%

                PROX: 15%

                PAR5: 5%

                BOB%: 15%

                SCRAM: 10%

               

Dustin Johnson leads the field this week in salaries at $12,800 and is the World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship defending champion.  His game translated to the Club de Golf Chapultepec especially on the Par 5s where he led the field scoring average.  Justin Thomas checks in next at $12,500 and it would be surprising if he did not finish similar or better than his T5 last year.  He is fresh off a win in the Honda Classic last week and his experience from last year should help him get out of the gate running.  John Rahm and Justin Rose round out the $12k salary tier and both are in line for quality fantasy performances in the World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship.  Jon Rahm fared better of the two last year but Justin Rose admittedly is much further along with his game this time around and should also benefit from his experience last year.  As always in a no-cut event, a “Stars and Scrubs” lineup is a viable approach.

Below are 10 golfers in my personal player pool for the World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship that I am considering for both Cash games and GPPs:

Dustin Johnson – $12,900:  Dustin Johnson returns to the World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship with another title defense opportunity.  He was unsuccessful his last time out after a disappointing T16 finish in the Genesis Open.  His form has been top notch to begin his 2018 season though.  A win in the Sentry Tournament of Champions was followed up by a T9 finish in the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship and then a T2 finish in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.  DJ has a great track record in WGC events and should have no problem adjusting his game once again on the Club de Golf Chapultepec.

Justin Thomas – $12,500:  Justin Thomas continues to show top level form with his latest win in the Honda Classic last week.  He simply continues to produce quality fantasy performances for anyone investing in him.  JT had a top 5 finish here last year and something similar should be what is expected this time around.  On another course where pars are typically a great score, having the leader in BOB% is never a bad thing.

Jon Rahm – $12,100:  Jon Rahm returns to action after making four starts in a row that included a win in the CareerBuilder Challenge.  He is another prime candidate to give DJ a run for his money this week in the World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship.  His top 5 finish last year shows that his game adapts to the Club de Golf Chapultepec and that experience from last year can only be viewed as a positive for the Spaniard.  Par 5 Scoring and BOB% are two of the Key Stats for the World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship and Jon Rahm is a leader in both.

Jordan Spieth – $11,900:  Jordan Spieth showed a lot of positives his last time out in the Genesis Open where he had a top 10 finish.  That followed up a top 20 in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am after a rare missed cut in the Waste Management Phoenix Open the week prior.  Making another appearance in the World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship, the former World No. 1 is close to his form here last year when he finished T12.  For those willing to take the chance that DJ is unable to repeat as champion or simply using the “Stars and Scrubs” lineup approach this week, Jordan Spieth offers salary relief at the top which allows you to spend up elsewhere in your lineup.

Paul Casey – $10,900:  The stars are aligning for Paul Casey for a possible breakthrough win in the World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship after a solid start to his 2018 season.  He is a leader in strokes gained: tee-to-green and proximity to the hole, both of which will be extremely important this week on the Club de Golf Chapultepec.  The Englishman’s T16 finish last year shows that when his complete game is on, he can be a factor over the weekend.  The biggest thing for Paul Casey has been getting into the winner’s circle but his $10,900 salary offers enough of a discount that simply a top 10 finish would pay it off.

Webb Simpson – $10,200:  Webb Simpson is making his debut on the Club de Golf Chapultepec this week but he has shown in the past that his game translates to these types of courses.  Last week in the Honda classic Webb Simpson hung around all tournament but ultimately had to settle for a T5 finish.  Other than a MC in the Waste Management Phoenix Open, his 2018 PGA TOUR season is off on the right foot with a T4 finish in the Sony Open in Hawaii and a T36 finish at the CareerBuilder Challenge.  Webb Simpson is one of the best ball strikers on the PGA TOUR and now that he has figured out his putting game, he should continue to reward those who play him in their PGA DFS lineups.

Patrick Cantlay – $10,000:  Patrick Cantlay’s great form continues from last season and has finally caught up with FanDuel’s pricing algorithm.  With a win already during the fall season at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open, his $10,000 salary is a little higher than what we are accustomed to.  He is the former #1 ranked amateur in the world though who has been able to overcome adversity since returning to the PGA Tour after more than three years removed.  Patrick Cantlay has backed up that former #1 ranked amateur status with zero missed cuts so far again this season along with two top 15 finishes, a top 5 finish and his win.  $10,000 provides a little bit a value with Patrick Cantlay and will probably be lower owned in contests this week over on FanDuel.

Chez Reavie – $9,000:  Chez Reavie returns to action this week in the World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship.  The last time out he made the cut in the Genesis Open but before that he was on quite the run.  Back-to-back runner-ups in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and Waste Management Phoenix Open shows that he is really close to finding the winner’s circle and the Club de Golf Chapultepec could just be the course that gets him there.  Chez Reavie’s accuracy off the tee will and ability to land the ball close to the pin will at the minimum put him in the mix come Sunday afternoon.  $9,000 is a great price for Chex Reavie’s potential upside on FanDuel this week.

Xander Schauffele – $8,800:  Xander Schauffele proved last year as a rookie that he can perform at a high level in stacked fields much like the one this week in the World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship.  After a T9 finish in the Genesis Open his last time out, his form is peaking at the right time for a quality finish in his debut on the Club de Golf Chapultepec.  With not a whole lot of options below $9k this week, $8,800 for Xander Schauffele offers enough salary relief to fit a couple top tier golfers in your lineup.

Joost Luiten – $7,600:  Joost Luiten returns to the World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship and his form is in great shape.  The Dutchman is fresh off a win in the NBO Oman Open two weeks ago over on the European Tour and after showing top 25 upside here last year, he must be considered as a value play under $8k.  With four rounds of golf almost a certainty, Joost Luiten has the ability to pay off his $7,600 salary and still offer upside for finishing points which will be at a premium this week.

 

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