The Albatross – FanDuel DFS Golf Preview – The Open Championship
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The 147th Open Championship will be played at Carnoustie Golf Links in Scotland for the 8th time in the tournament’s history. Back in 1999, a 6-over 290 was good enough to get you into a playoff for the Claret Jug. Then in much calmer conditions, 2007 saw Padraig Harrington and Sergio Garcia each shoot a 7-under 277 in regulation to ultimately battle it out in another playoff. This year the conditions at Carnoustie Golf Links are firm and fast due to recent dry weather in the area. It will plays as a par 71 that measures 7,402 yards in length. Accuracy off the tee will be required in order to avoid the pot bunkers where sometimes chipping out sideways is the only option. Previous leaderboards of The Open Championship show that golfers coming in with good recent form and positive results from previous Open Championships typically go well here. This year should be no different. Finally, the current weather forecast for Angus, Scotland calls for light 5 mph winds starting off on Thursday morning that gradually increase to the 10-15 mph range through the afternoon. Friday will likely see morning rain showers and 10-15 mph winds throughout the day. Saturday and Sunday should be mostly dry in breezy conditions.
The FGI PGA Interactive Model is going to assist us with our lineup building process because it identifies the golfers with solid Recent Form and whose Key Stats set up nicely for Carnoustie Golf Links. It also allows us to factor in Tournament History as well as an emphasis on Vegas (odds to win). Below are the FGI PGA Interactive Model Overall weightings I will be using this week along with the Key Stats weightings for The Open Championship provided by our friends at Fantasy Golf Metrics:
FGI PGA Interactive Model Overall weights:
Recent Form: 25%
Key Stats: 25%
Vegas: 25%
Course History: 25%
FGI PGA Interactive Model Key Stats weights:
SGT2G: 30%
SGOTT: 10%
SGP: 20%
PROX: 10%
SPROX: 10%
BOB%: 10%
BOW%: 10%
Dustin Johnson leads the field this week in salaries at $12,500 and should be well rested after his solo 3rd place finish at the U.S. Open last time out. Justin Rose slots in next at $12,200 and recently teed it up at the Scottish Open and finished T9 in preparation for The Open Championship. Brooks Koepka rounds out the $12k salary tier and the U.S. Open champion should be in line for another quality fantasy performances in The Open Championship.
Recommended golfers for The Open Championship for both Cash games and GPPs:
Dustin Johnson – $12,500: Dustin Johnson has the ability to overpower Carnoustie Golf Links and with all facets of his game currently working, he will surely be in contention. DJ also seems to have his killer instinct back after briefly losing his #1 ranking in the OWGR. He won the FedEx St. Jude Classic prior to his solo 3rd place finish at the U.S. Open to regain that status and does not appear ready to relinquish it anytime soon. It should surprise no one if DJ is lifting the Claret Jug Sunday afternoon.
Justin Rose – $12,200: Justin Rose will also be a threat to win The Open Championship this week. He warmed up last week at the Scottish Open with a T9 finish in hopes of improving on his T10 finish at the U.S. Open a month ago. Rose has been golfing on another level for almost a year now and appears to be close to adding another major championship to his trophy case.
Also consider:
Brooks Koepka – $12,100
Rickie Fowler – $11,400: If there is going to be another first-time Major winner this week at The Open Championship, Rickie Fowler has as good shot to do it. He has been threatening in majors for a while now, and did so earlier this year with a solo 2nd in the Masters Tournament. Fowler also enjoys the challenge of links-style golf, and proved that he ready for the difficult test that lies ahead at Carnoustie Golf Links with a T6 finish at the Scottish Open last week. The Open Championship remains his best chance of a major of all four.
Also consider:
Rory McIlroy – $11,500
Patrick Reed – $11,400
Jon Rahm – $11,300
Francesco Molinari – $10,400: Francesco Molinari is in career form right now after a win at the BMW PGA Championship on the European Tour and more recently his breakthrough PGA TOUR win at the Quicken Loans National. He followed that up with a T2 finish at the John Deere Classic last week and is all systems go for The Open Championship. The Italian has the tee-to-green game to be in the mix all week and just needs to stay hot with the putter to be a serious threat to win.
Branden Grace – $10,000: Branden Grace last teed it up at the U.S. Open and finished T25 there. The South African should be well rested for The Open Championship, and his experience playing in firm and windy conditions back home should be a nice advantage this week. Grace also has experience playing at Carnoustie Golf Links highlighted with a win at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in 2012. He also has shown a liking for seaside golf on the PGA TOUR so things are setting up nicely for him at this year’s edition of The Open Championship. Grace showed last year in this event that he is able to contend so he must be strongly considered at $10,000.
Alexander Noren – $9,800: Alexander Noren recently won the HNA OPEN DE FRANCE over on the European Tour, and prior to that had a T25 finish at the U.S. Open. He clearly is in outstanding form going into The Open Championship in pursuit of the Claret Jug. Carnoustie Golf Links in Scotland, host of The Open Championship, will be no easy task for the Swede to conquer, but he does have previous experience playing here. Since 2001, Carnoustie Golf Links has co-hosted the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, also over on the European Tour. In that event, Noren has made eight starts and finished in the top 20 three times. When his top 10 finish at The Open Championship last year is also considered, it is difficult not seeing him being in the mix this year. His $9,800 FanDuel salary presents a solid value with the upside for finishing points as well.
Zach Johnson – $9,700: Zach Johnson is an Open Championship specialist having won at St. Andrews in 2015, and has five top 15 finishes in his last six appearances. He is also showing good form with a T16 finish at the John Deere Classic, a T19 finish at the Travelers Championship and T12 finish at the U.S. Open. ZJ should continue to be one of the safest Open Championship plays that also has the upside for finishing points as well.
Marc Leishman – $9,800: Marc Leishman enjoys golf when the conditions are difficult and that will definitely be the case at The Open Championship this week. The Aussie has the game to go well in windy weather and has been playing on firm conditions all throughout his career. He also has three top 10 finishes over the last four years at The Open Championship. Winning a major championship is something Leishman desperately wants and The Open Championship is going to be his best chance.
Also consider:
Ian Poulter – $9,400
Matthew Fitzpatrick – $9,100
Russell Knox – $9,000
Tyrrell Hatton – $8,900: Tyrrell Hatton is underpriced on FanDuel for The Open Championship because their salary algorithm does not properly account for recent performances over on the European Tour. Since his T6 finish at the U.S. Open, he finished T16 at the HNA OPEN DE FRANCE and then T9 at the Scottish Open last week. When you also consider that he won the previous two Alfred Dunhill Links Championships, $8,900 seems extremely underpriced. Hatton still comes with some risk though as his temper has often gotten himself in trouble on the course. He appears to have gotten that under control though and ready to contend in majors.
Also consider:
Thomas Pieters– $8,800
Kevin Na – $8,700
Emiliano Grillo – $8,700
Jason Dufner – $8,600
Keegan Bradley – $8,600
Matthew Southgate – $7,700: Matthew Southgate enjoys links-style golf and arrives at The Open Championship ready to be in the mix again. He recently finished T5 at the HNA OPEN DE FRANCE and T23 at the Scottish Open, both links-style golf tests. Southgate’s recent finishes in The Open Championship are also notable because of the difficulty of the course and strength of field. A top 10 finish last year backed up a top 15 in 2016 so he should be up for the challenge at Carnoustie Golf Links. Being a member there since he was 16 should definitely help his confidence this week as well.
Also consider:
Thorbjorn Olesen– $7,800
Chris Wood – $7,700
Ryan Fox – $7,500
Alexander Bjork – $7,300
Danny Willett – $7,100
“FanDuel Fades” for The Open Championship:
Note: These golfers are my personal fades this week however I would not put anyone off that wanted some exposure to them in GPPs.
Henrik Stenson – $11,600
Tommy Fleetwood – $10,900
Louis Oosthuizen – $9,900
Both Henrik Stenson and Louis Oosthuizen are dealing with injuries which more than likely will limit their upside this week. Tommy Fleetwood has questionable form leading into The Open Championship since his solo 2nd place finish at the U.S. Open, and historically has not been in the mix during this event.
Good luck.
-Erik Dantoft
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