The Albatross – FanDuel Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – Wyndham Championship
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After an entertaining PGA Championship where Justin Thomas became the latest first time Major winner, the PGA TOUR stays in North Carolina this week for its final event before the FedExCup Playoffs. The Wyndham Championship provides an opportunity for many golfers already comfortably within the top 125 of the FedExCup standings to maintain their solid form and play stress free golf. It also marks the final opportunity for those on the bubble of the FedExCup Playoffs to make one final run at securing their PGA TOUR card for next season. As for us gamers, it is important for us to identify the golfers who are in great spots to produce fantasy points, regardless of the situation they are in. After analyzing the FanDuel pricing this week, both “balanced” and “Stars & Scrubs” lineup approaches are in play but I think the latter will reap the highest rewards.
The Sedgefield CC is a short, tree lined Par 70 course that accommodates the golfers who are the most accurate off of the tee. A solid approach game will also be necessary because the golfers who are able to land the ball closest to the pins will yield the lowest scores this week. With weather most likely not playing a major factor, a winning score close to 20 under par would not surprise me. With that in view, Birdie or Better percent will also be a key stat I will be focusing in on.
As always, the FGI PGA Model is going to assist us with our lineup building process because it identifies the best golfers with solid Current Form and whose Key Stats set up nicely for the Sedgefield CC. It also allows us to factor in Course History as well as an emphasis on Vegas (odds to win). Below are the FGI PGA Model Overall weights I will be using this week along with the Key Stats weights for the Wyndham Championship provided by our friends at Fantasy Golf Metrics:
FGI PGA Model Overall weights:
Current Form: 35%
Key Stats: 35%
Vegas: 20%
Course History: 10%
FGI PGA Model Key Stats weights:
SGT2G: 25%
SGP: 20%
DA: 15%
P150-175: 5%
PAR4: 10%
BOB%: 25%
Henrik Stenson was a late addition to the field this week because he wanted to take some pressure off of himself during the FedExCup Playoffs to reach the minimum number of 15 PGA TOUR starts to retain his TOUR status for next season. He has really put together his game together recently and I would not put anyone off playing him this week. At $9,800 though, I personally am having a difficult time looking past his two missed cuts here even though Sedgefield CC should be right up his alley with his elite ball striking ability. After Henrik Stenson, Kevin Kisner and Bill Haas round out the top of the market and I think both of them are firmly in play this week. They are course horses here and I expect to see their names at the top of the leaderboard once again this year.
Kevin Kisner – $9,600: Kevin Kisner has treated many of us well this PGA season and I do not see how he cannot come through once again. He was in contention all four rounds last week at the PGA Championship and even though he did not win, he has shown the tenacity to overcome physically and mentally tiring events all season long. Sedgefield CC rewards the exact type of golfer that Kevin Kisner is and the FGI PGA Model clearly shows that. His course history here also suggests that he does not take this event off which makes him one of the safest DFS plays this week in my opinion.
Webb Simpson – $8,800: Webb Simpson has another “home” game this week and he is another golfer whose course history suggests that he feels very comfortable playing here. He has been in form all season with several close calls and if he can keep his momentum going from the PGA Championship last week, he could easily find himself in contention this week. Accurate off of the tee accompanied by a solid wedge game is what Webb is and I fully expect him to reward those who play him in their lineups this week.
Keegan Bradley – $8,000: Keegan Bradley will not usually make this list of write-ups because of his blowup potential and poor putting statistics. This week is different though because Keegan has shown a recent run of great golf and his T33 finish last week at the PGA Championship shows that. He is long and accurate off the tee and the Sedgefield CC should reward him for that. Keegan made the cut in his debut last year and he should be looking to build off of that this year. Playing Keegan Bradley in DFS Golf does not come without some risk, but the strength of field decreases that a little bit this week.
Bud Cauley – $7,900: Bud Cauley has really put together a strong season this year and it has the chance to culminate this week at the Wyndham Championship. With two Top 10’s over the last five years playing year, he clearly shows that he has what it takes to contend when coming into this event in great form. Bud’s T33 finish last week at the PGA Championship preceded by a T12 finish at the John Deere Classic shows that he has found that great form again where he rattled off four Top 10’s in a row. I am also guessing that being around his friends and the Wanamaker trophy last week only makes Bud’s motivation going forward much stronger.
Chez Reavie – $7,500: Chez Reavie is a streaky golfer but he continues to display great form right now. He has made seven straight cuts which includes last week’s T22 finish at the PGA Championship as well as a T16 finish at the U.S. Open and T4 finish at the St. Jude Classic. With accuracy off the tee and a solid approach game, Chez is set for another quality fantasy scoring performance at the Wyndham Championship. He has shown Top 10 upside at this event back in 2011 on the Sedgefield CC so finishing points are definitely something he is capable of providing as well.
Billy Horschel – $7,000: Billy Horschel proved at the AT&T Byron Nelson that a golfer can find his elite game during a season with several missed cuts. This week he heads back to the Sedgefield CC where he has had some previous success at. A Top 5 finish last year shows that when he is in form, he can be that cut maker with finishing points upside that most of us know him as. At $7,000 we are getting a nice discount on a good golfer in a weaker field who already won an event this season.
James Hahn – $6,900: James Hahn is a difficult golfer to predict but this week at the Wyndham Championship he seems to be in a position to build off his made cut the last time here in 2014. His overall form has been okay this year but has really shown signs of that trending up recently. He made the cut at The Open and before that he had a T6 at the Memorial Tournament and a solo 3rd at the AT&T Byron Nelson. His T10 at the RBC Canadian Open and last week’s T13 at the PGA Championship suggest that his complete game has come together. At $6,900, simply making the cut with respectable fantasy scoring is all that we are looking for from James Hahn. However, the lack of top end talent this week could allow him to provide some finishing points too.
Chad Campbell – $6,800: Chad Campbell is one of those golfers I do not target often but when I do it is usually at an event where he is coming in with good form at. The Sedgefield CC fits his playing style enough and he has the course history to show it. His recent form also suggests that his game is working right now so another Top 25 finish is definitely possible. Chad Campbell may not be able to sink enough putts to contend come Sunday but at $6,800, a respectable fantasy scoring performance along with the potential for some finishing points is all that we are looking for.
Kevin Streelman – $6,700: Kevin Streelman is streaky golfer but he absolutely appears to be in great form right now. A T44 finish at the John Deere Classic the last time out preceded by a T29 finish at the Greenbrier Classic along with his streak of four consecutive Top 20’s shows that his game has come together at the right time as we approach the FedExCup Playoffs. Streelman will need to continue his great putting and ball striking at Sedgefield CC and if so, he should provide some decent fantasy scoring with potentially finishing points as well again. Priced only at $6,700 on FanDuel this week, this is a great value and should allow for a top tier golfer or two to fit in your lineup.
Sam Saunders – $5,600: Sam Saunders is one of the golfers on the FedExCup Playoffs bubble this week. Needing a finish of 41st or better, Sam will be golfing with a great deal of motivation in hopes of earning that ever important tee time at the Northern Trust next week. This scenario could not have actually come at a better time for the grandson of the late great Arnold Palmer because he has shown solid form recently. He has made four cuts in a row and three of those resulted in a Top 25 finish or better. Sam Saunders is capable of making a lot of birdies so as long as he can do that over four rounds at the Wyndham Championship, we will be very pleased with him in our lineups.
Also to be taken under advisement:
Bill Haas – $9,300
Ryan Moore – $8,600
Shane Lowry – $7,600
Chris Stroud – $6,600
Chesson Hadley – $5,100
Good luck.
-Erik Dantoft
@edantoft on Twitter
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