The Albatross – FanDuel Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – Wells Fargo Championship
Sometimes in DFS Golf you are going to be presented with certain situations and depending on how you react to them will be the difference between cashing or not in contests that week. I believe this is one of those weeks where if you are not adjusting your lineup building process to factor in the weather and tee times, you are probably going to lose. In fact, I scrapped over half of this column once Zach let me know what to expect in regards to the weather on Thursday and Friday. Being part of the FGI team means you are going to get the most accurate information and golfer picks to give you the best possible edge when playing DFS Golf. Due to windy and wet conditions expected later on Thursday afternoon and early Friday, my primary focus will be on golfers with Thursday AM tee times but there are a few in the PM who are just too good to ignore.
Overall FanDuel Strategy for the Wells Fargo Championship: With DJ back in the field this week, he is the clear favorite and overall pricing is the tightest I have seen all year over at FanDuel. There is also no Course History to go off of this week since Eagle Point Golf Club is temporarily hosting this event while Quail Hollow Club can continue to get ready for the PGA Championship later in the year. Despite these circumstances, we will use one set of optimal Overall weights in the FGI PGA Model when selecting golfers for Rd 1-2 and 3-4. For Rd 3-4 golfers, we want the top end guys with solid Current Form and whose Key Stats match up nicely for this course. I think a little bit of input from Vegas can help make up for not having Course History. For Rd 1-2 golfers, we need to find some value plays as well as some salary relief options so we can get the best golfers for Rd 3-4. Below are the FGI PGA Model Overall weights I will be using this week along with the Key Stats weights for the Wells Fargo Championship courtesy of our friends at Fantasy Golf Metrics (@FGMetrics on Twitter):
FGI PGA Model Overall weights:
Current Form: 40%
Key Stats: 45%
Vegas: 15%
Course History: 0%
FGI PGA Model Key Stats weights:
SGT2G: 35%
SGP: 20%
P150-175: 5%
PAR5: 15%
BOB%: 20%
SCRAM: 5%
Round 3-4 FanDuel Strategy: As I mentioned earlier, pricing is much tighter this week and it starts with DJ and Rahm at the top. Getting one of these top tier golfers in as one of your Rd 3-4 golfers will probably be necessary for cashing in contests this week. With weather being a big factor, I will mostly be siding with golfers with Thursday AM tee times for my Rd 3-4 golfers this week. Again, Rd 3-4 golfers carry the least amount of risk in terms of making the cut but also have the upside to win the event.
Dustin Johnson – $11,500: DJ is making his return from a back injury that caused him to WD from the Masters a few weeks ago. If you watched him warm up there you could tell he was close but he ultimately decided it was not worth the risk and withdrawing was the best option. Oddsmakers apparently have no issues with DJ’s back as he has been installed as a heavy favorite this week. DJ is the best golfer on the planet and should be able to play his way into form after a few holes as he said he has done in the past with little to no practice between longer stretches away from the golf course. When you factor in his Thursday AM tee time, DJ is my lock as a Rd 3-4 golfer this week.
Adam Scott – $9,900: Scott is one of the best golfers in the world and I like his salary this week. He is returning to action after posting a T9 finish at the Masters so he is clearly in form. His Ball Striking and scoring capabilities along with a Thursday AM tee time should find himself to be in contention come Round 4.
Kevin Kisner – $9,000: Kisner is one Thursday PM tee time golfer I simply cannot ignore this week. If you did not already see his hole out Eagle on 18 at the Zurich Classic to force a playoff, you need to. Kisner has been one of the hottest golfers on tour this year and has had several close calls for taking home the top prize. He also excels at coastal golf courses and if he can navigate himself through the wind on Thursday afternoon and throughout the rest of the tournament, he should be in contention once again this week.
Francesco Molinari – $8,300: Thursday AM tee time, check. SGT2G leader, check. Molinari is in a great spot to be in contention this week at the Wells Fargo Championship. He has several Top 25 finishes this season and has also shown Top 10 upside most recently at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The Italian is a steady cut maker on both the PGA & Euro Tours and his $8,300 salary is just right.
Webb Simpson – $7,300: Webb is way too cheap over on FanDuel. He is one of a couple golfers this week that has a membership at Eagle Point Golf Club so course familiarity is going to come into play. Webb also has the Thursday AM tee time that we are looking for and I fully expect him to have his putting under control. This is a “home game” for Webb so you know he is going to take this event seriously since many of his friends and family will be there cheering him on.HHHjj
Round 1-2 FanDuel Strategy: Since we are spending up in most of Rd 3-4, we are going to need to find a few Rd 1-2 golfers that offer us salary relief but that can also put together a couple decent early scoring rounds. These golfers carry a little more risk in terms of making the cut but our primary focus is their scoring capabilities in Rounds 1 and 2. Thursday AM tee times will be key since this is when there will be optimal scoring chances for these golfers.
JT Poston – $6,100: JT was probably going to make this list even if he did not have that precious Thursday AM tee time. He has only missed one cut since the Sony Open and has been improving all season with a few recent Top 20 finishes. JT has an above average approach game and that will come into play this week. I like JT for some finishing points this week as well.
Harold Varner – $6,000: HVIII is a usual suspect of my Rd 1-2 picks because he is notably a fast starter and sometimes is in contention for First Round Leader bets. This week is no different and with an early tee time Thursday, HVIII could actually be in contention come the final round. There are many flaws in HVIII’s game but he is an accomplished Par 5 scorer and that is one of our Key Stats this week.
Matt Jones – $5,400: Matt Jones is the only Thursday PM golfer to make my Rd 1-2 picks. This mainly due in part to his recent finish at the Valero Texas Open where he finished T13 in very windy conditions. Jones has several Key Stats going for him this week and if he can make the best of his tee time, he should be able to produce decent fantasy scoring as a Rd 1-2 golfer.
Brian Gay – $5,400: Brian is my preferred option at the $5,400 price range since he has the Thursday AM tee time and that he has been playing some really good golf recently. He has posted back-to-back T6 finishes at the Valero Texas Open and RBC Heritage. Brian has the scoring Key Stats we want this week and with a little luck he could provide some finishing points too.
Nick Taylor – $5,300: Nick Taylor is also flashing some decent form here recently with consecutive T22 finishes at the Valero Texas Open and RBC Heritage. Once again, a Thursday AM tee time should result in a few Par 5 scoring chances for a golfer who typically excels in this area. If Taylor is able to continue his mini streak of made cuts and Top 25 finishes, we would be more than pleased with the extra 5 fantasy points for a 11th – 25th Place finishing position.
Once again, I believe FGI subscribers are going to have the edge over at FanDuel this week. DFS Golf is a tricky sport to figure out and this week will be telling with how our competition is building their lineups considering there are so many more factors in play. If you have been reading and following my FanDuel column advice and strategy since I started this a few weeks ago for FGI, you should have positive EV (expected value) with your bankroll over there and I expect this week to be no different. Good luck and be sure to let us here at FGI know if you are competing for any top spots come Sunday!
-Erik “Statboy” Dantoft
@edantoft | edantoft@yahoo.com
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