The Albatross – FanDuel Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – The Memorial
FanDuel Golf 2.0 is launching this week for the Memorial Tournament and that means we will have to adjust our overall strategy to give us an edge over the competition. We will no longer be selecting golfers for Rounds 1-2 and 3-4. Instead we will be selecting 8 golfers the traditional way where each round will count for every golfer. This roster format is very similar to the format over at DraftKings except for the obvious 8 golfers versus 6. For those of you that have played DFS Golf over at DraftKings, you already know that it is not easy getting 6 golfers through the cut every week. That is where it will be interesting to see what it takes to cash early on and then later after players start making adjustments. I am fairly certain that in order to win a big GPP, you will need to have an 8/8 lineup with the winner along with several strong finishers. For Cash games, a 6/8 lineup with a few strong finishers might be enough to cash early on as players start to get a feel for this new roster format. Regardless, I will continue to give FGI subscribers my insights along with my favorite Cash and GPP plays for each DFS Golf event over at FanDuel. If all goes well, FGI subscribers should not miss a beat during this transition and continue to build bankroll much like we have done since the launch of DFS Golf at FanDuel.
It is another strong field this week as many of the world’s best golfers are trying to get into peak form for the U.S. Open just a couple of weeks away. Unlike previous events with strong fields, we are not getting the soft pricing from FanDuel that had some obvious pricing discrepancies. To help put this in perspective, if we were still operating under the old roster format, selecting DJ and Rahm as Rounds 3-4 golfers would have been very likely and we would find some value and salary relief plays when selecting our Rounds 1-2 golfers to make that work. That strategy was successful because we were not penalized as much if a Round 1-2 golfer missed the cut and having that strong upside in Rounds 3-4 was really the key for cashing. Under this new roster format, if we wanted to select DJ and Rahm this week that would leave an average of $6,233 for our remaining 6 golfers. Now there are definitely a few good golfers in that salary range this week, but I do not feel comfortable deploying this type of “Stars & Scrubs” approach unless it was for a bigger GPP contest. Simply put, there are going to be more mistakes made when selecting 8 golfers for an entire event and I would much rather prefer that our competitors make those mistakes than us. That is where I believe a balanced approach has a lot of merit this week and we should take advantage of some really good golfers that are priced fairly across the different salary tiers.
Similar to the old roster format at the end, we will use one set of optimal Overall weights in the FGI PGA Model for selecting our 8 golfers. We want the FGI PGA Model to identify the best golfers with solid Current Form and whose Key Stats match up nicely for this course. Course History will also come into play as well as emphasis on Vegas. Below are the FGI PGA Model Overall weights I will be using this week along with the Key Stats weights for the Memorial Tournament courtesy of our friends at Fantasy Golf Metrics (@FGMetrics on Twitter):
FGI PGA Model Overall weights:
Current Form: 35%
Key Stats: 25%
Vegas: 15%
Course History: 25%
FGI PGA Model Key Stats weights:
SGT2G: 30%
SGOTT: 10%
SGP: 20%
P150-175: 10%
BOB%: 20%
SCRAM: 10%
DJ heads the field and is priced at $11,800 and this seems to be the going rate for DJ on FanDuel while he is the favorite whenever he is in the field. I think there is better value below him though this week and here is why. After a dominating stretch to start off the season, DJ seems to working back up to that level and I am guessing he is zeroing in on his title defense at the U.S. Open in two weeks. That is when I want to play him again at this price but I will not turn anyone away from playing DJ this week. The value for elite golfers right below him is just too difficult for me to ignore this week. Rahm is $1,000 cheaper with Day and Spieth rounding out the $10k salary range. Rahm keeps proving that having no experience does not apply to him but I do get a little hesitant to play him whenever there is a field as strong as this. Spieth is the guy I would want at the top this week since it appears that he has started to sink some putts again and his price is not reflective of when he is truly dominating with the flat stick.
Jordan Spieth – $10,000: As I just mentioned, Spieth is finding his groove with his putter again and I think we are going to see a stretch where he is contending every week. He has been up and down here over the last four years but it is the T3 finish back in 2015 that has me thinking he is due for another run here at Muirfield.
Hideki Matsuyama – $9,800: Hideki will probably get overlooked this week like he usually does in DFS Golf and I think that would be a mistake this week. He won this event back in 2014 and followed that up with a T5 in 2015. It will be the MC last year that will leave people scratching their heads with what to do with him but his recent form is showing that he is dialed in and ready for the summer stretch of golf.
Matt Kuchar – $9,500: Kuchar has everything that we are looking for out of a golfer this week at the Memorial Tournament. He won this event back in 2013 and has shown the upside since then with most recently a T4 last year. Kuchar does not win a whole lot these days but if there is ever a course that will reward his overall game, it will be here at Muirfield. A T9 finish at the AT&T Byron Nelson followed up by a T12 finish last week at the D&D Invitational shows that he his finding his form and seems to be peaking at the right time for a quality DFS play this week.
Tony Finau – $8,600: Finau is a big hitter off the tee and should be excited to be on a course that he can use that strength at. A T11 finish last year and a T8 finish the year before shows that he is quite comfortable here and ready to be in contention come Sunday. Finau is a leader in BOB% and at the end of the day that is what scores points in DFS Golf.HHHjj
Emiliano Grillo – $7,700: Grillo is one of those DFS golfers that can be frustrating because of his inconsistency throughout an event but he continues to make the cut and has shown Top 10 upside when he can keep his game together for four rounds. He had no issues last year here with a T11 finish and I think we can expect something similar to that this year. At $7,700, Grillo is priced very reasonably for our DFS lineups this week.
Marc Leishman – $7,300: Leishman continues his strong season with a T34 finish at the D&D Invitational last week and before that a T13 finish at the AT&T Byron Nelson. He is “popping” in the FGI PGA Model this week and it is hard to find a good reason not to play him at $7,300. The Aussie has the cut making ability and the Top 10 upside we are looking for here and has shown the ability to win this year when the stars are in alignment. Play Leishman with confidence this week.
Billy Horschel – $7,100: Billy Ho proved two weeks ago at the AT&T Byron Nelson that a golfer can find his elite game after a string of MC’s. This week he heads back to Muirfield where he has had some previous success at. Two Top finishes in 2015 and 2014 shows that when he is in form, he can be that cut maker with finishing points upside. At $7,100 we are getting a nice discount on a good golfer in a strong field who recently won an event.
Keegan Bradley – $7,000: Keegan Bradley will not usually make this list because of his blowup potential and poor SGP statistics. This week is different though as Keegan has shown a recent stretch of form by making 6/7 cuts with a little bit of upside. It is actually his course form here that has me on him because two T8 finishes in a row is nothing to scoff at. Keegan will always be a great ball striker and that skillset seems to prevail here the most as there is difficulty surrounding the greens. If there is every a week to play Keegan Bradley in DFS Golf, this would be the week.
Charl Schwartzel – $6,900: Charl Schwartzel’s recent game log might shy people away from using him this week but all indications are that his wrist will be fine for the Memorial Tournament. He is a very talented golfer that will be looking to find his form prior to the US Open in two weeks so I like his chances of making the cut and playing into the weekend. The South African also has four Top 20 finishes at the Memorial Tournament over the last five years so finishing points are definitely possible as well. With FanDuel’s new roster format, you are going to need to find a few value plays and Charl Schwartzel fits the bill this week.
Kevin Chappell – $6,900: Kevin Chappell has been on a nice little run since he finished T7 at the Masters. He followed that up with his first PGA Tour win at the Valero Texas Open and a T35 finish at THE PLAYERS where a lot of elite golfers had difficulties playing at. At $6,900 I think we getting a golfer who is in career form that also has shown the ability to make the cut at Muirfield with Top 5 upside.
Patrick Cantlay – $6,600: Cantlay continues to be mispriced over at FanDuel and will continue to be an auto play for me until his price climbs significantly higher than the $600 it did since the last time he was in a field. He is the former #1 ranked amateur in the world who has thus far been able to overcome adversity since returning to the PGA Tour after more than three years removed. Cantlay recently finished T22 at THE PLAYERS and before that a T3 at the RBC Heritage, a T39 at the SHO and a 2nd place finish at the Valspar Championship. Do not be surprised if this is the last week we are able to get him under $7,000.
David Lingmerth – $6,100: I have a sneaky feeling about Lingmerth this week because his game is peaking at the right time and is going back to a course where he should have a great deal of confidence at. His only PGA Tour victory came here in 2015 and at $6,100, we are getting a great value for a golfer with that kind of upside. At the very least we are getting a steady cut maker here and that is exactly what we are looking for in this salary range.
Honorable Mentions:
Jason Day – $10,300
Patrick Reed – $8,800
Steve Stricker – $7,600
Stewart Cink – $6,600
Kyle Stanley – $6,100
Good luck this week and hopefully Team FGI is at the top of the leaderboards once again over at FanDuel!
-Erik “Statboy” Dantoft
@edantoft | edantoft@yahoo.com
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