The Albatross – FanDuel Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – RBC Canadian Open
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An event right after a major is always difficult to predict and the RBC Canadian Open will be no different. Fortunately for us the RBC Canadian Open returns to the Glen Abbey GC for the third straight year so we have a few years of course history to consider when making our selections this week for our FanDuel lineups. The field this week not overly strong and is a mix between golfers returning from Southport, England that participated in The Open, golfers who also played last week but in the Barbasol Championship, and others who are just returning to action after a week or two away from the PGA TOUR. This combination of golfers makes it a bit more challenging to judge because there really is no data that accurately quantifies fatigue, motivation, and/or rust. Everyone continuing the DFS Golf grind this week has the same obstacles to overcome so we just need to be better than them come Sunday evening.
As I previously mentioned, the Glen Abbey GC is once again the venue for this year’s RBC Canadian Open. It is not an excessively long course which allows for the more strategic golfer to factor in the equation but typically it is the bombers who are more likely to shoot the lower scores. There is a little bit of forgiveness off of the tee but it going to be accurate approach shots that can land on the smaller greens here that will be the difference. Par 5 scoring will also determine this week’s winner so that is another aspect of a golfer’s game I will be looking at.
As always, the FGI PGA Model is going to assist us with our lineup building process because it identifies the best golfers with solid Current Form and whose Key Stats set up nicely for the Glen Abbey GC. It also allows us to factor in Course History as well as an emphasis on Vegas (odds to win). Below are the FGI PGA Model Overall weights I will be using this week along with the Key Stats weights for the RBC Canadian Open provided by our friends at Fantasy Golf Metrics:
FGI PGA Model Overall weights:
Current Form: 30%
Key Stats: 35%
Vegas: 15%
Course History: 20%
FGI PGA Model Key Stats weights:
SGT2G: 30%
SGP: 20%
DA: 5%
P125-150: 15%
BOB%: 20%
SCRAM: 15%
Dustin Johnson is the heavy favorite for the RBS Canadian Open and I think it is a great time to invest in him again over on FanDuel. Their pricing algorithm has been generating some very fair prices at the top and the key thing for us is to know when it is time to jump on board much like we did with Spieth last week for The Open. Last year DJ was is a similar situation heading into the RBC Canadian Open and posted a T2 finish. Last year’s field also included Jason Day and a few other top end talents but this year his real only competition is Matt Kuchar who also plays this event at a high level. DJ and Kuchar stacks are definitely in play this week.
Dustin Johnson – $10,600: DJ had a disappointing finish at The Open but his 3rd round offered a glimpse that he is close to returning to top form. Unlike previous weeks, DJ might only need to be at 80% – 90% peak form in order for him to win this event that he has finished 2nd twice in on the Glen Abbey GC. As I previously mentioned, Matt Kuchar is really his only competition this week.
Matt Kuchar – $10,100: Matt Kuchar arrives at the RBC Canadian Open this year in what appears to be career form. He battled hard this past Sunday in an attempt to capture his first major but there really was no stopping Jordan Spieth. Kuchar is the utmost professional golfer and has consistently shown Top 10 upside at this event. I fully expect him to battle to the very end and he is obviously very close to winning once again. If Kuchar plays the way he did at The Open and DJ still can’t get his complete game together, this is as good as chance as any for him to get back into the winner’s circle.
Tony Finau – $9,200: Tony Finau sees another slight salary increase after a T27 performance at The Open. He is a big hitter off the tee that should feast on the Par 5’s at the Glen Abbey GC. If Finau is able to continue his strong iron play and avoid the double bogeys, he should have no issues duplicating another strong finish at the RBC Canadian Open.
Bubba Watson – $8,300: Bubba is finally back on my radar and I believe we are getting him at a price with a lot of value. He has slowly been creeping back into form that was highlighted last week at The Open with a T27 finish. Bubba is a big hitter and is very capable of shooting a low score here at the Glen Abbey GC. He finished a solo 2nd here back in 2015 so he is clearly comfortable playing here. This might be the point where Bubba really turns it on and we should be prepared to ride the wave if he does.
Patrick Cantlay – $7,200: Patrick Cantlay continues to be mispriced over at FanDuel and will continue to be an auto play for me until his price climbs significantly higher than the $600 it did since the last time he was in a field. He is the former #1 ranked amateur in the world who has thus far been able to overcome adversity since returning to the PGA Tour after more than three years removed. Cantlay last played at the Memorial Tournament where he finished a respectable T35. Before that he finished T22 at THE PLAYERS and T3 at the RBC Heritage. Do not be surprised if this is the last week we are able to get him under $7,500.
Jim Furyk – $7,100: The next Ryder Cup captain of the USA appears to finally have found some familiar form that we have all grown accustomed to. Furyk missed his The Open for the first time in 22 years but he played anyways last week at the Barbasol Championship in hopes of gaining some ground in the FedEx Cup Playoffs. He shot a -11 there good for a T35 finish. The Glen Abbey GC is a course that Furyk is very comfortable playing at. He has posted four Top 15 finishes here since 2008 and I expect that trend to continue this week.
Chad Campbell – $6,800: Chad Campbell is one of those golfers I do not target often but when I do it is usually at an event where he has shown good form at before. The Glen Abbey GC fits his playing style enough and he has the course history to show it. His recent form also suggests that his game is working right now so another Top 15 finish here is definitely possible. Campbell may not be able to sink enough putts to contend come Sunday but at $6,800, a respectable fantasy scoring performance along with the potential for some finishing points is all that we are looking for.
Chez Reavie – $6,600: Chez Reavie is a streaky golfer but he continues to display good form right now. He has made five straight cuts which includes a T16 finish at the U.S. Open and T4 finish at the St. Jude Classic. With a solid approach game, Chez is set for another quality fantasy scoring performance at the RBC Canadian Open. He won this event back in 2008 on the Glen Abbey GC so finishing points are definitely something he is capable of providing as well.
James Hahn – $6,500: James Hahn is a difficult golfer to predict but this week at the RBC Canadian Open he seems to be in a position to repeat his 2015 T11 performance. His overall form has been okay this year but has shown signs of that trending up recently. He made the cut at The Open last week and before that he had a T6 at the Memorial Tournament and a solo 3rd at the AT&T Byron Nelson. This form suggests that his complete game is starting to come together. At $6,500, simply making the cut with respectable fantasy scoring is all that we are looking for from James Hahn. However, the lack of top end talent this week could allow him to provide some finishing points too.
Luke List – $6,000: Luke List started off his season great but has naturally regressed as the courses became more difficult and the fields stronger. The RBC Canadian Open appears to be an event that he wants to circle now, especially when it is played at the Glen Abbey GC. A T21 finish back in 2013 and then a T14 finish last shows that Luke List’s elite Par 5 scoring capabilities translate very well here. Coming off a made cut at the John Deere Classic last time out should also be a confidence booster for him. The weaker fielder this week also presents an opportunity for Luke List to regain some of that early season success.
Also to be taken under advisement:
Charley Hoffman – $9,000
Danny Lee – $8,400
Ian Poulter – $7,400
Kevin Tway – $6,700
Cameron Percy $5,000
Good luck.
-Erik Dantoft
@edantoft on Twitter
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