The Albatross – FanDuel Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – Hero World Challenge
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For the second year in a row, the Hero World Challenge has the feel of a big-time golf tournament despite the small 18 golfer field. The reason is simply because of the much anticipated return of Tiger Woods. This is his event that benefits the Tiger Woods Foundation and all indications are that he is feeling better than he has in a long time and is mentally in a good place. The Albany course in the Bahamas is the host for the third straight year for the Hero World Challenge and it is an ideal course for Tiger to test his game at with a scorecard in his hand. From a DFS Golf perspective, this is not a bankroll building week so scaling back your bankroll is strongly advised. Again, with only 18 total golfers to choose from, lineups will be extremely overlapped and any of the top GPP lineups will probably be splitting the pot a few times. Have fun with this event though and put together a few Tiger lineups and a few without him. After all, many of the top golfers in the world are competing here and there should be plenty of scoring.
The Albany course was designed by Ernie Els and will play a par 72 measuring a shade above 7,300 yards. It is very similar to a links style course that allows golfers to open up their game. There should be plenty of scoring opportunities especially for the golfers who can control their ball flight in windy conditions. Two years ago Bubba Watson used his big hitting abilities to take the title and last year Hideki Matsuyama used his elite ball striking and a hot putter to take home the top prize.
The FGI PGA Model is going to assist us with our lineup building process because it identifies the best golfers with solid Current Form and whose Key Stats set up nicely for the Albany course. It also allows us to factor in Course History as well as an emphasis on Vegas (odds to win). Below are the FGI PGA Model Overall weights I will be using this week along with the Key Stats weights for the Hero World Challenge provided by our friends at Fantasy Golf Metrics:
FGI PGA Model Overall weights:
Current Form: 40%
Key Stats: 15%
Vegas: 35%
Course History: 10%
FGI PGA Model Key Stats weights:
SGT2G: 25%
SGP: 25%
PROX: 10%
PAR5: 10%
BOB%: 20%
SCRAM: 10%
Jordan Spieth leads the way in salaries this week at a modest $9,100 and has two top 10 finishes here. He has all the tools to succeed here and if he arrives with a hot putter, this could be the year he wins it. Dustin Johnson checks in next at $9,000 and finished T3 last year here. DJ probably has the game best suited to win here but I wonder about his motivation especially after his 4th Round collapse at the WGC-HSBC Champions his last time out. Justin Thomas tops the $8k range and he is the golfer I prefer out of this top tier. Finally, with the Hero World Challenge being a no cut event, do not be afraid to build some unheard of “Stars and Scrubs” lineups.
Justin Thomas – $8,800: Justin Thomas gets to pick up the clubs again before his calendar year of golf is over and no one should be more excited than him to tee off for his first round since Tiger selected him to be his playing partner. The last time we saw JT was in South Korea where he won the CJ CUP and was ready for a break thereafter. Now with some rest and plenty of motivation, the reigning PGA TOUR Player of the Year will be ready to show Tiger and the rest of the field that last year was no fluke.
Rickie Fowler – $8,500: With two straight top 3’s on the Albany course, Rickie Fowler is probably the best play in the entire field for the Hero World Challenge. He is also continuing his great form from last season with a solo 2nd already at the OHL Classic. Rickie has also been “warming up” with Tiger in Florida leading up to this event and will surely want to prove to him that his game is capable of winning when the fields get strong. If he does not win, another top 5 seems likely for Rickie this year.
Hideki Matsuyama – $7,500: Hideki Matsuyama may not be in the best form right now but $7,500 for the defending champion is a great value. He needed a hot putter to go along with his elite ball striking to win the Hero World Challenge last year so even if he does not have the putter working like that again this year, his ball striking alone should be able to give him plenty of scoring opportunities and remain in the mix over four rounds. Hideki also has a history of stepping up amongst the world’s best golfers so a quality fantasy performance from him seems in order.
Tommy Fleetwood – $6,500: Tommy Fleetwood is my favorite value play on FanDuel this week for just $6,500. He is one of the hotter golfers on the Euro Tour right now and has to be ecstatic to be part of this event. The Englishman also has the game to compete on a track like the Albany course and has plenty of experience golfing in windy conditions. A few sub $7k golfers are probably necessary for FanDuel lineups this week and Tommy Fleetwood needs to be one of them.
Tiger Woods – $6,400: Normally it would not be smart to target a golfer making his first competitive start since February, but in this case the golfer is Tiger Woods. The other concern when considering Tiger Woods for PGA DFS this week is how well his back will hold up following a fourth procedure in April. All of the news regarding Tiger Woods leading up to the Hero World Challenge has been positive though. Specifically, he said that he does not have any pain in his lower back and completed a nine-hole practice round Monday where he walked the course and felt good afterwards. The Hero World Challenge is also a no cut event which means, barring a withdrawal, Tiger Woods will be assured four rounds of golf where he will try to be a leader in birdies once again this year. With little value placed on finishing points outside of the winner and top five, scoring is what is going to differentiate fantasy lineups this week over on FanDuel and $6,400 for Tiger Woods should help do that.
Also to be taken under advisement:
Justin Rose – $8,000
Henrik Stenson – $7,700
Patrick Reed – $7,300
Good luck.
-Erik Dantoft
@edantoft on Twitter
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