The Albatross – FanDuel Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – FedEx St Jude Classic
Last week was a successful week for The Albatross with only Billy Horschel and Keegan Bradley missing the cut from the entire list of write-ups and Honorable Mentions. FGI readers of this column should have found themselves within the cash lines of most Cash games and by properly assessing the field and golfer salaries, many of us should have successfully navigated around the baffling missed cuts by both DJ and John Rahm which allowed to climb further up the leaderboards in a lot of GPP contests. I have to admit, both DJ and Rahm missing the cut together in the same event will not happen very often and will probably not happen again for the rest of the season. This was one of those high variance weeks in DFS Golf where the opposite seemed to be happening early and often. It was also confirmed that in order to win a big GPP contests, you will need to have an 8/8 lineup with the winner along with several strong finishers and fantasy scorers. For Cash games, a 6/8 lineup with a few strong finishers was enough to cash but I believe a lot of that had to do with high ownerships of both DJ and Rahm. DFS players are going to start making adjustments to the new FanDuel roster format so it behooves us to stay one step ahead of our fellow competitors. Fortunately for FGI subscribers, you have access to the best DFS Golf tools and industry experts to help you with your weekly DFS Golf process.
This week the PGA Tour makes its annual visit to TPC Southwind for the FedEx St. Jude Classic. It is weaker field relatively compared to last week’s because many of the world’s best golfers are already at or will be arriving shortly to Erin Hills in preparation for the U.S. Open. With that in view, FanDuel has properly adjusted their salaries and I believe there are some good values to be had across the different salary ranges to unlock two of the top priced golfers. In fact, rostering two of the top priced golfers would be a strategy with a lot of merit this week as long as you picking the right two and are also rostering the appropriate golfers with them. That is where this FanDuel preview column and the FGI PGA Model come into play to assist you with another solid bankroll building week.
The FGI PGA Model is a great DFS Golf tool because it helps us identify the best golfers with solid Current Form and whose Key Stats match up nicely for this course. Course History is also taken into consideration as well as emphasis on Vegas. Below are the FGI PGA Model Overall weights I will be using this week along with the Key Stats weights for the St. Jude Classic courtesy of our friends at Fantasy Golf Metrics (@FGMetrics on Twitter):
FGI PGA Model Overall weights:
Current Form: 35%
Key Stats: 35%
Vegas: 15%
Course History: 15%
FGI PGA Model Key Stats weights:
SGT2G: 25%
SGP: 25%
DA: 10%
P150-175: 10%
BOB%: 25%
SCRAM: 10%
Rickie Fowler is the favorite this week and is $1,300 cheaper than DJ last week when he was the favorite and $10,500 for Rickie is a fair price and I suspect he will be a popular play coming off a fresh T2 finish at the Memorial Tournament. I am personally going to wait one more week to roster Rickie where he should see a nice salary decrease in an elite field for the U.S. Open. Adam Scott checks in next at $10,300 but has shown a propensity to not take events just before a major as serious as I would like to see for a golfer of his caliber. Adam Scott would purely be a GPP pivot from Rickie Fowler this week in my opinion. The value in the quality of golfers right below the top two golfers is just too difficult once again for me to ignore.
Brooks Koepka – $10,100: Brooks Koepka appears to be back in form and is coming off of a T31 finish at the Memorial Tournament last week. His T11 finish at the Masters has propelled him to four straight made cuts and appears to be getting ready for a strong summer of golf. Koepka’s Course History here at TPC Southwind is terrific with two recent Top 5 finishes and a Top 20 finish in 2014. This is the type of field where Koepka excels in and I expect another strong showing from him once again this year at the St. Jude Classic.
Phil Mickelson – $9,700: This is going to be Lefty’s U.S. Open this week since he will be missing the actual U.S. Open next week to attend his daughter’s graduation ceremony. Even if that were not the case, Mickelson makes for a strong DFS play due to his ability to make cuts and upside in events where he has shown solid course form at. Three Top 5 finishes over the last four years at TPC Southwind shows he is very comfortable here and I think he will be in the mindset to go for the win this week.
Francesco Molinari – $8,700: Molinari checks back in to the PGA Tour after a solid solo 2nd finish at the BMW PGA Championship over on the Euro Tour. Molinari has been a steady cut maker this season and I believe his game fits very well at TPC Southwind. Having posted consecutive Top 10 finishes on both tours, I believe we are getting a slight discount for Molinari at $8,700.
Charl Schwartzel – $8,100: Charl Schwartzel’s showed gamers last week that his wrist was fine for the Memorial Tournament and is finding his form prior to the US Open in next week. The South African does not have any Course History over the last five years but he is just too talented of a golfer to not put up a strong showing this week.
Russell Henley – $7,600: Henley has been having a strong season but had an unusual missed cut the last time out at the AT&T Byron Nelson. He is in a nice bounce back spot this week after getting a little rest and coming back to an event where he finished T7 last year. Henley really has the Key Stats in his favor this week at the St. Jude Classic and I fully expect him to make the cut and hopefully is able to provide some finishing points as well.
Kevin Chappell – $7,400: Kevin Chappell has been on a nice little run since he finished T7 at the Masters. He followed that up with his first PGA Tour win at the Valero Texas Open and a T35 finish at THE PLAYERS and then a so-so T52 finish at the Memorial Tournament. At $7,400 I think we getting a golfer who is in great overall form that also has shown the ability to make the cut at TPC Southwind with Top 25 upside.
Ian Poulter – $7,100: Like him or hate him, Ian Poulter is a great DFS Golf play this week over on FanDuel. After thinking he lost his PGA Tour card a mathematical error was able to grant it back to him. Poulter’s Key Stats line up nicely on courses where DA is a premium. You combine that with a Top 10 finish back in 2014 and I think you found a great value in a $7,100 priced golfer.
Peter Uihlein – $7,000: Peter Uihlein continues his strong season by making 13 straight cuts on both the PGA and Euro Tours. With a T25 finish at the Memorial Tournament last week he is showing that his form is steady and if he improves his iron play, he could be in for another Top 25 finish at the St. Jude Classic.
Kyle Stanley – $6,800: Kyle Stanley is playing some really good golf right now and we are starting to see his upside when his putter is working. He has two Top 10 finishes in his last three events played and I do not anticipate him slowing down this week at the FedEx St. Jude Classic. Kyle Stanley may not have the best course history at TPC Southwind but this is a weaker field than what we have seen recently and he should be able to put on another ball striking clinic. At $6,800, Kyle Stanley is a great value because he can rack up the fantasy points quickly and also allow for other high caliber golfers to make your FanDuel roster.
Brian Gay – $5,700: Brian Gay is a great salary relief option this week priced at just $5,700. The 2009 winner here has been displaying solid Current Form and has the scoring Key Stats we want this week at TPC Southwind. With a little luck he could provide some finishing points too, maybe even rediscover that glory from 2009.
Honorable Mentions:
Daniel Berger – $9,000
Ryan Palmer – $7,700
Danny Lee – $7,500
Stewart Cink – $7,100
Chad Campbell – $5,600
Good luck again this week and hopefully Team FGI is at the top of the leaderboards over at FanDuel!
-Erik “Statboy” Dantoft
@edantoft | edantoft@yahoo.com
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