The Albatross – FanDuel Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – by Erik Dantoft

Well that was an interesting first event for FanDuel DFS Golf.  Henrik Stenson inexplicably misses the cut for the first time in nine appearances at the API but was as high as 75% owned as a Rd 3-4 golfer in most Cash games.  If you rostered him there but also followed the overall strategy I outlined last week you should’ve still found yourself within the cash lines of most Cash games and maybe even a few GPPs.  Stenson was my only dud as a Rd 3-4 golfer pick whereas Rory, Hatton & Molinari shined and even Rickie with his Rd 3 65 was a solid Rd 3-4 play.  Glover headlined the Rd 1-2 golfer picks after a strong start and an overall T7 finish at the event.  In the world of DFS Golf there isn’t much time to reminisce of what could’ve or should’ve been at the previous event so it’s time to shift our focus to the Puerto Rico Open while also applying our learnings from the API.

Every now and then in the world of DFS Golf we’ll have a high profile event like the Arnold Palmer Invitational followed up by a lower tier tournament like the Puerto Rico Open.  That’s the case this week as the world’s best golfers are in Austin, TX for the WGC – Dell Technologies Match Play event while the rest are on vacation in Puerto Rico competing for a few additional FedEx Cup Points before things really get going with the PGA Tour’s first Major right around the corner.  Personally, I love events like this because they’re similar to the volatility over on the Euro Tour and it really takes a sharp DFS Golf mind to sift through the Key Stats, Current Form data and Course History to find out which golfers actually want to be there.  In terms of bankroll management I would definitely recommend scaling it back this week, mainly due to the pure unpredictability of an event like this.

Taking a deeper dive into the FanDuel pricing this week I believe that its pricing is really soft with some serious discrepancies.  An easy way to get a gauge of this every week is to look at the FGI PGA Model that now includes the FanDuel salaries side-by-side the DraftKings salaries.  Any time you see a “greener” FD Salary by a “redder” DK Salary, you might want to seriously consider putting that golfer in your lineup.  The question then is whether it’s a Rd 1-2 or Rd 3-4 golfer.  FanDuel historically hasn’t been as sharp as DraftKings with its salaries for other DFS sports and I’m expecting that trend to continue with DFS Golf.  I also believe that since the pricing is so generous this week that we can use one set of FGI PGA Model optimal Overall weights.  In other words, there’s no real reason to dig at the bottom of the barrel for salary relief unless you’re really trying to be contrarian for GPP purposes.

Overall FanDuel Strategy for the Puerto Rico Open:  We’re going to be using one set of optimal Overall weights in the FGI PGA Model with a little more emphasis on Vegas this week and not as much on Course History.  With the variance usually associated with a field like this and roughly 33% not having any Course History from the past 5 years (I only incorporate the last 5 years when calibrating the Course History metric in the FGI PGA Model) we will have heavy emphasis on Current Form & Key Stats since those two metrics are going to be our best indicators for predicting success of a golfer each week.  Below are the Key Stats weights we’ll be using this week for the Puerto Rico Open courtesy of our friends at Fantasy Golf Metrics (@FGMetrics on Twitter) as well as the Overall weights for the FGI PGA Model: 

FGI PGA Model Key Stats weights:

                SGT2G: 25%

                SGOTT: 5%

                SGP: 20%

                PAR5: 5%

                BOB%: 25%

                SCRAM: 20%

FGI PGA Model Overall weights:

                Current Form: 40%

                Key Stats: 30%

                Vegas: 20%

                Course History: 10%

Round 3-4 FanDuel Strategy:  We’re going to target the top tier golfers coming into this event with solid Current Form, the Key Stats necessary to succeed on this course and that are also viewed favorably by Vegas.  I’m not as concerned with their Course History rating because quite frankly most of these guys haven’t played here yet or have significantly improved their skillset since the last time they competed in this event.

Graeme McDowell – $9,700:  McDowell is coming into the Puerto Rico Open having made all six cuts on both the PGA & Euro Tour events he’s played in since the beginning of the season.  He’s also showing the upside we’re looking for out of a Rd 3-4 golfer with Top 15 finishes in three of those events that were much more difficult fields than the one this week.  I fully expect McDowell to be in the mix come Sunday.

Graham DeLaet – $9,400:  DeLaet has shown much improved consistency from last season and already has two Top 10 finishes so far this season.  He’s a big hitter off the tee that can also putt but his lack of scrambling ability worries me somewhat for this event where it’s a Key Stat at a 20% weight.  For this reason DeLaet will be a GPP only play for me this week but it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s in the mix on Sunday if all other facets of his game are working. 

Wesley Bryan – $8,900:  Wes now makes the list as a Rd 3-4 golfer whereas last week he was one my Rd 1-2 picks.  This field should remind Wes of his Web.com Tour days back in 2016 where he racked up 3 wins and 7 total Top 10’s in 15 events played.  Why Wes isn’t the most expensive golfer this week with the recent form he’s been showing mind boggles me but we’ll gladly take the discount.  Fade Wes at your own risk and only do so if you’re trying to be contrarian in GPPs.  This is the perfect event for Wes to notch his first PGA Tour win.

Luke List – $8,600:  Luke List is another golfer I think is a little underpriced but just like with Wes, we’re more than happy to take the discount.  Luke has rediscovered his game recently after three missed cuts in a row.  In his last three events played he’s finished T52, T27 & a T17 last week at the API.  This is all trending for a Top 10 finish in Puerto Rico and Luke will be another highly owned Rd 3-4 golfer this week on FanDuel.

Alex Cejka – $6,200:  Alex Cejka is a great mid-priced Rd 3-4 golfer this week because he takes this event serious as evident by him winning this event back in 2015 and then followed up with a T11 last year.  He isn’t long off the tee but he’s got a decent iron game and can usually scramble his way out of trouble.  I also think we’re catching Cejka at the right time after posting a T14 at the Valspar Championship a couple of weeks ago and might get a little overlooked this week in Puerto Rico.

 

Round 1-2 FanDuel Strategy:  Since we’re using the same Overall weights in the FGI PGA Model this week we just have identify the top Rd 1-2 plays near the top of the rankings that fit with our remaining salary.  These golfers can carry a little bit more risk since our main concern is their Rd 1-2 scoring capabilities and if they miss the cut it shouldn’t derail our overall lineup.  Some of these Rd 1-2 golfers have merit to being a Rd 3-4 golfer so I won’t be surprised if I see a few of them in both slots this week.

Peter Uihlein – $7,200:  If you’ve been playing Euro Tour DFS over at DraftKings you already know who Peter Uihlein is.  The American has been on a tear over on the Euro Tour with three Top 10’s, a couple Top 20’s and finishing no worse than T49 in seven events played since an opening MC at his first event back in late November.  He has shown inconsistent form here in the past and that’s why I prefer to use him as a Rd 1-2 golfer but the upside is there too as he finished T6 back in 2013.

Seamus Power – $7,100:  Just say the name and you would think that this kid from Ireland is good at golf.  Well, it just so turns out that he’s been adapting pretty well on the PGA Tour having made 4/6 cuts so far this season after a strong fall season.  Seamus Power’s Key Stats are really “popping” this week in a weaker field and I think he could be in for a strong start with some finishing points upside at the end of the tournament.  His lack of Course History makes him a great Rd 1-2 golfer this week.

JT Poston – $6,500:  This is a great spot and price for JT.  His Current Form is trending in the right direction and has the Key Stats to score us some early Rd 1-2 points.  He’s also starting off events strong and fading a little bit over the weekend which makes him an even stronger Rd 1-2 golfer.  JT is one of the top rated golfers this week in BOB% which is a Key Stat I’m always looking at.

Matt Jones – $5,700:  This is one salary I was a little confused about once I got done calibrating the FGI PGA Model this week.  Matt Jones hasn’t golfed much this season but when he has he’s been making the most of it with a T23 finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and a T36 finish at the WM Phoenix Open.  But that’s not what really stood out to me because his Key Stats are exactly in line for what we’re looking for this week.  I’m expecting a little rust from Matt to begin with so he’s also a golfer to take into consideration for Rd 3-4.  Either way he should make you FanDuel lineup this week.

Brandon Hagy – $5,400:  Brandon Hagy is an ideal Rd 1-2 golfer this week on FanDuel.  His inexpensive salary first of all allows you to spend up for a top tier Rd 3-4 golfer, but more importantly, Hagy is in a great position to score you some early Rd 1-2 fantasy points with the likelihood of adding some finishing points at the end of the tournament as well.  Hagy has made 5/7 cuts since the Sony Open and with a recent T28 finish at the API last week he seems to have his form trending in the right direction.

Thanks again for checking out my FanDuel FGI column!  I also enjoyed getting a bunch of feedback from the FGI community on Twitter last week.  Be sure to give me a follow if you’re already not doing so and don’t be afraid to reach out to me if you have any questions about the FGI PGA Model.

 

Good luck this week!

 

-Erik “Statboy” Dantoft

@edantoft | edantoft@yahoo.com