The Albatross – FanDuel Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – AT&T Byron Nelson
The PGA Tour heads back to Texas and once again we have a nice field of golfers to build our lineups with. The TPC Four Seasons Resort is typically a bombers course so a bunch of golfers from last week will be getting one of their primary advantages back. There are some thunderstorms in the forecast but the worst is scheduled for Saturday. Overall the conditions will probably play more difficult than previous years but our primary focus this week should be on the big hitters. The FGI PGA Model does an outstanding job of identifying these golfers that will ultimately help us build winning lineups.
Overall FanDuel Strategy for the AT&T Byron Nelson: With a stronger field this week, we see more balanced pricing from FanDuel. There are some good salaries for a few of golfers that we are going to need to exploit to build winning lineups. DJ is once again the favorite but unlike last week, I really like his chances to win. Much like previous weeks, we will use one set of optimal Overall weights in the FGI PGA Model when selecting golfers for Rd 1-2 and 3-4. For Rd 3-4 golfers, we want exposure to the top tier golfers with solid Current Form and whose Key Stats match up nicely for this course. Course History will once again come into play and it is always wise to have a little emphasis on Vegas. For Rd 1-2 golfers, we need to find some value plays as well as some salary relief options so we can get the best golfers for Rd 3-4. Below are the FGI PGA Model Overall weights I will be using this week along with the Key Stats weights for the AT&T Byron Nelson courtesy of our friends at Fantasy Golf Metrics (@FGMetrics on Twitter):
FGI PGA Model Overall weights:
Current Form: 30%
Key Stats: 35%
Vegas: 15%
Course History: 20%
FGI PGA Model Key Stats weights:
SGT2G: 30%
SGP: 25%
DD: 10%
P100-125: 7.5%
BOB%: 15%
SCRAM: 12.5%
Round 3-4 FanDuel Strategy: Rd 3-4 starts at the top with DJ, Spieth, Day and Sergio all in play above $10k. Getting one of these top tier golfers in as one of your Rd 3-4 golfers will probably be necessary for cashing in contests this week. I still view Day more as a GPP play this week because I do not think we have seen his best golf yet and there will be other opportunities to play him later in the year. Spieth is in a great spot for a bounce back after a MC at THE PLAYERS and Sergio will be looking to defend his title from last year. Again, Rd 3-4 golfers carry the least amount of risk in terms of making the cut but also have the upside to win the event.
Dustin Johnson – $11,800: DJ finished a respectable T12 at THE PLAYERS on a course that took away his greatest advantage. Now he gets his distance off the tee advantage back on a course that he has had previous success at. DJ is the clear cut top golfer in the FGI PGA Model this week and is my lock for a Rd 3-4 golfer.
Brooks Koepka – $9,500: Brooks Koepka appears to be back folks. His T11 finish at the Masters has propelled him to a 2nd place finish at the Valero Texas Open and now a T16 finish at THE PLAYERS where like DJ, his greatest strength was neutralized. The fact that he did not find too much water tells me that the other facets of his tee-to-green game are working as well. Koepka lost in a playoff to Sergio last year after leading through three rounds and I am thinking he is looking to avenge that this year.
Jason Dufner – $8,000: Dufner is really “popping” this week in the FGI PGA Model and is only priced at $8,000. He won this event back in 2012 and so far this year he has been a steady cut maker with Top 20 upside. Dufner might not be the longest off of the tee but so many other parts of his game set up nicely to possibly be in contention again come Sunday.
Tony Finau – $7,700: Finau is a big hitter off the tee and should be excited to be back at a course that he can use that strength at. Prior to the MC last week at THE PLAYERS, he finished T3 at the Valero Texas Open that also featured less than ideal playing conditions. Finau finished T12 here last year and T10 before that so he clearly feels comfortable playing on this course. He is a leader in Par 4 and 5 scoring so hopefully he can rack up the fantasy points along with some finishing points by the end of the tournament for us.HHHjj
Russell Henley – $7,500: Henley continues his strong season with a T35 finish at THE PLAYERS and really has the Key Stats in his favor this week at the AT&T Byron Nelson. He did miss the cut here last year but the year before he finished T22. So many aspects of Henley’s game are working right now that I fully expect him to make the cut and hopefully is able to provide some finishing points as well.
Round 1-2 FanDuel Strategy: Since we are spending up in most of Rd 3-4, we are going to need to find a few Rd 1-2 golfers that offer us salary relief but that can also put together a couple decent early scoring rounds. These golfers carry a little more risk in terms of making the cut but our primary focus is their scoring capabilities in Rounds 1 and 2.
Bud Cauley – $6,400: Bud Cauley returns to competition this week and lately has been showing some really good form. If you include the team effort at the Zurich Classic, Bud Cauley has finished in the Top 10 in three straight events. He should have a decent shot at continuing that trend at the AT&T Byron Nelson where he finished T4 last year. As a capable Par 4 and 5 scorer, Bud Cauley should give you some decent fantasy scoring as a Rd 1-2 golfer with the likelihood of some finishing points as well by the end of the tournament.
Kevin Tway – $6,300: Tway is a leader in DD that has also shown some solid form here recently. If you include the team effort at the Zurich Classic, he has posted three straight Top 5 finishes. He did miss the cut here back in 2014 but his price and upside for $6,300 makes him a worthy Rd 1-2 golfer this week.
Graham DeLaet – $6,100: We are getting DeLaet at a nice discount this week after a MC at THE PLAYERS but before that he finished T6 the RBC Heritage. He has length off the tee we are looking for but does have some issues if he needs to resort to his scrambling abilities. DeLaet also missed the cut here last year but has shown Top 10 upside in previous years. Typically a fast starter, he is what we are looking for out of a Rd 1-2 golfer and if he has no issues making the cut, finishing points are definitely within reach.
Sung Kang – $6,100: Kang continues to “pop” on the FGI PGA Model and rightfully so after posting a T30 finish at THE PLAYERS and before that a T6 finish at the Valero Texas Open, a T11 at the RBC Heritage and a solo 2nd at the SHO. He finished T34 here last year and will be looking to improve upon that this year. The South Korean is on a nice little run and if he can stay hot, he should produce quality Rd 1-2 scoring with potentially some finishing points as well.
Jonathan Randolph – $5,000: It is hard to ignore Jonathan Randolph at $5k this week with the form he has been showing recently. A T27 finish at the Valero Texas Open followed up by a T8 at the Wells Fargo Championship shows that he is on top of his game. When you also consider he finished T34 at the AT&T Byron Nelson back in 2015 while shooting a 63 in Round 2, Randolph is the ideal salary relief option to allow us to spend up in Rd 3-4.
Last week was another successful week over at FanDuel for THE PLAYERS Championship and I hope the AT&T Byron Nelson brings us some more good fortune. If you find yourself in contention come Sunday be sure to let me and the rest of Team FGI know via Twitter. We like nothing more than seeing the FGI logo at the top of leaderboards. Good luck!
-Erik “Statboy” Dantoft
@edantoft | edantoft@yahoo.com
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