The Albatross – FanDuel Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – Arnold Palmer Invitational by Erik Dantoft

FanDuel has finally launched their PGA product so that means it’s time for FGI members to spread a little bit of their bankroll over there and dominate those leaderboards!!!  It’s a unique format with a little different scoring than we’re accustomed to, but hopefully I can help you navigate through this process and identify the best golfers to consider when building your lineups.  My goal each week with this column is to give FGI members the best possible edge when playing DFS Golf over at FanDuel.

A lot of you already know me as “Statboy” here at FGI because I’m the one that builds and calibrates the FGI PGA & EURO Models each week.  Since that is my specialty and also an integral part of my lineup building process, most of my insights will be derived straight from that.  The FGI PGA Model continues to produce quality results and is something I encourage you all to use while you’re doing your weekly DFS Golf research here at FGI.  I would also recommend reading all of the other expert columns here at FGI because even though they might not be FanDuel specific, the way we each feel about certain golfers is unique and allows the FGI community to really use the “wisdom of the crowd” approach with their DFS Golf process.  Personally, I know I’m in a good spot when the initial lineups I build straight from the FGI PGA Model also line up with the expert picks here at FGI.  Lastly, be sure to check out FanDuel’s Golf Training Guide to get a complete understanding of the roster format and scoring (www.fanduel.com/golf?t=lobby).

Starting this week you should see a “FD Salary” column in the FGI PGA Model.  Since we will be drafting a total of 8 golfers with 4 golfers for Rounds 1-2 and then 4 different golfers for Rounds 3-4, we have to make the necessary adjustments in the FGI PGA Model to determine which slot is best when deciding between golfers.  When Zach and I chatted about FanDuel’s PGA format a couple weeks ago we both immediately thought the “Stars & Scrubs” approach was the way to go.  This approach is similar to how we normally treat a No Cut event over at DraftKings.  In other words, we’re able to take more risks with inexpensive golfers in Rounds 1-2 because we’re only getting those two rounds of scoring from them whether they make the cut or not (there is the potential to get finishing points from your Rounds 1-2 golfers if they finish within the Top 25 at the end of Round 4 but I would not recommend building your lineups with this in mind because the overall impact of those additional points will be minimal most of the time to your lineup’s overall score).  I also think that working backwards would be shrewd of us so let’s take a look at some of my favorite golfers to consider for Rounds 3-4…

 

Rounds 3-4 FanDuel Strategy:  We absolutely cannot miss on these guys.  Plain & simple.  There’s not going to be a much worse feeling and something that could ruin your overall FanDuel PGA experience then having a “dead” lineup with golfers selected for Rounds 3-4 that fail to make the cut.  For this reason we are going to spend up for golfers we carefully identify as “safe” with the upside necessary to win FanDuel contests by the end of the tournament.  How these golfers perform in Rounds 1-2 are meaningless AS LONG AS THEY MAKE THE CUT!  Of course we want strong finishers with scoring capabilities but again making the cut has to happen first before anything else with these golfers.  The FGI PGA Model should come preloaded with the “Overall” weights in a good spot for identifying the golfers we want for Rounds 3-4.  I’ve also listed them below and these will be the weights I’ll be using this week when building my FanDuel lineups.  All of the other weights throughout the model will remain consistent throughout this process.  I’m personally going to be extra cautious this opening week of DFS Golf at FanDuel and hopefully will be able to take advantage of people who truly don’t grasp the concept initially here.

 

FGI PGA Model “Overall” weights:

                Current Form: 40%
                Key Stats: 30%
                Vegas: 15%
                Course History: 15%

Rory McIlroy – $10,700:  Rory is probably going to be the highest owned Rds 3-4 golfer and rightfully so.  He doesn’t appear to be affected by his rib injury as evident by his T7 finish at the WGC – Mexico a couple weeks ago and seems to be on a mission this season.  Lock him in and move on.

Henrik Stenson – $10,200:  Stenson is another golfer that will probably be highly owned for Rds 3-4.  If you take away an unpredictable WD at the WGC – Mexico, Stenson has been grinding out Top 10s on both the PGA & Euro Tours.  Stenson also rates the highest in Course History this week and anything less than another Top 10 would be disappointing.

Hideki Matsuyama – $10,000:  Matsuyama might get overlooked this week for Rds 3-4 with the masses gravitating towards Rory and Stenson, however Hideki fits all of the criteria we’re looking for as a golfer for Rds 3-4.  Take away a weather induced Rd 2 80 at the Genesis Open and Hideki has been nothing but consistent this season while also showing the ability to win.

Rickie Fowler – $9,500:  A lot of people might say Rickie is not an ideal Rds 3-4 golfer but his Key Stats this week in the FGI PGA Model along with excellent Current Form I believe tell a different story.  I won’t argue with anyone who wants to leave him off their Cash game roster but there’s ton of merit for him making it onto your GPP roster.

Tyrrell Hatton – $7,800:  Tyrrell has been one of my favorite Euro Tour golfers over the past season and he’s showing already he can adjust quickly and compete on the PGA Tour with two Top 10’s in a row.  Hatton was a leader in Stroke Average last season on the Euro Tour and excellent at Scrambling, something that will surely factor in this week.

Francesco Molinari – $7,700:  Molinari is another golfer from the Euro Tour that has found success over on the PGA Tour.  Molinari is very accurate off the tee and was a leader in GIR% & Putts Per GIR last season on the Euro Tour.  Combine that skillset along with outstanding Course History and you have the making for a safe and cost effective Rds 3-4 golfer with Top 10 upside.

 

Rounds 1-2 FanDuel Strategy:  This is where we can take on more risk with our golfer selections because we’re guaranteed points as long as they don’t WD during Rounds 1-2.  Depending on how you picked your Rounds 3-4 golfers will determine how much of your overall $60,000 salary budget remains.  My initial impression of these FanDuel salaries is that anything between $21,000-$25,000 Salary Remaining to pick your final four golfers for Rounds 1-2 is definitely doable.  We’re going to try to identify golfers who rate somewhat high in Key Stats and/or have solid Current Form heading into the tournament.  Vegas will have very little to do with this part of our research and we’ll also be tuning down Course History since we don’t want to overlook an inexpensive golfer who might be ready to take that next step but doesn’t currently have positive Course History (i.e. Adam Hadwin last week).  It doesn’t hurt however to take a glance with our Rounds 3-4 weights and see if anybody “pops” in the lower salaries that we’re seeking for our Rounds 1-2 golfers.  Below are the “Overall” weights I’ll personally be using when identifying golfers to be considered for Rounds 1-2 in my lineup.  If any of these golfers end up in a finishing position that rewards points at the end of the tournament we’re going to view that just as an extra bonus for now.

 

FGI PGA Model “Overall” weights:

                Current Form: 45%
                Key Stats: 45%
                Vegas: 5%
                Course History: 5%

Wesley Bryan – $6,700:  Still using the “Overall” weights from our Rounds 3-4 golfers, Wes Bryan is the first guy that stood out to me as a sub $7k golfer that would be an ideal candidate for Rds 1-2.  Wes has been on a Top 10 tear since the WM Phoenix Open and is showing no signs of slowing down.  He is however still a rookie with no Course History to go off of so he carries some risk in a stacked field.  If there’s going to be any Top 25 finishing points awarded to our Rds 1-2 golfers, it’s probably going to be going to Wes.

Lucas Glover – $6,200:  Lucas Glover is another golfer that “popped” using the Rounds 3-4 “Overall” weights.  He’s coming into this event with solid Current Form having made 5 straight cuts with two recent Top 25 finishes.  Glover’s Strokes Gained: Putting (SGP) Key Stat is far from ideal and he’s been inconsistent with how he’s performed here recently but we’re only concerned with his Rds 1-2 scoring capabilities.

Chris Kirk – $6,000:  Using the Rounds 1-2 “Overall” weights now, Chris Kirk immediately jumped out in the model.  He’s got the Key Stats ratings we’re looking for and also has shown Top 20 upside at this event.  If he can bounce back from last week’s MC and produce quality Rds 1-2 scoring we’ll be very pleased.

Jason Kokrak – $5,400:  Kokrak is a great Rds 1-2 golfer this week.  He’s coming into this event with OK Current Form but not really the Key Stats we’re looking for but he seems to really enjoy playing this course.  Over the last three years here he’s produced a Top 20 and two Top 10’s.  Sign me up!

David Hearn – $5,000:  David Hearn would normally never make any of my DraftKings lineups but I’m willing to give him a shot as a Rds 1-2 FanDuel golfer this week.  The Canadian has respectable Key Stats ratings and has made the cut here four years in a row showing Top 20 upside last year.  We also might be catching him on the upswing after posting a T18 finish at the Valspar Championship.

Roberto Castro – $4,800:  The sub $5k guy I really like this week as a Rds 1-2 golfer is Roberto Castro.  He’s another guy with respectable Key Stats but the specific one that stood out was his rating in Bogey or Worse % (BOW%).  FanDuel scoring isn’t as nice as DraftKings with Double Bogeys or Worse scoring and in this price range we’re hoping to get a golfer who can avoid the “blow-up holes” and at the very least string together a bunch of Pars with an occasional Birdie or two.  Castro also made the cut last year but only had a T46 finish.

 

Thanks for checking out my introductory FanDuel FGI column and good luck this week! Please give me a follow on Twitter and hit me up with any questions directly there or through email: edantoft@yahoo.com

-Erik ‘Statboy’ Dantoft – @edantoft