The Albatross – FanDuel Daily Fantasy Golf Preview
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The Wyndham Championship provided us with some exciting drama as four golfers on the bubble of the FedExCup Playoffs were able to sneak in when it was all said and done. That also meant that four golfers got bounced and will head over to the Web.com Tour finals with another chance at becoming fully exempt on the PGA TOUR next season. FanDuel’s initial player pool excluded Rory Sabbatini, Harold Varner III, Martin Flores and J.J Henry, the four fortunate golfers that got in after the Wyndham Championship. They ultimately did a player pool update to make them available for PGA DFS contests this week but at the same time, they did not remove the unlucky foursome of Zac Blair, David Hearn, Seamus Power and Daniel Summerhays. Rostering any of these unlucky golfers will result in zero fantasy points for the week. With the 120 golfer field officially set for the first event of the PGA TOUR postseason, the Northern Trust will kick off at the Glen Oaks Club in Old Westbury, New York. This will be the first time the Glen Oaks Club will be hosting a playoff event and the players are already impressed with the course layout and scenery. Our task as gamers is to once again find any advantage we can get with our lineup building process and this week they will be a little more difficult to uncover without having any course history to work off of. The playoffs typically bring out the best in competitors though and I think targeting golfers with great recent form that are also equipped with skillsets for the Glen Oaks Club will be the formula for our success this week.
The Glen Oaks Club is a Par 70 course that measures 7,346 yards. There will be a little room off of the tee but as with typical Par 70 courses, the second shot is usually the most important one because landing the ball close to the pin will be key for setting up potential scoring opportunities. SGT2G is going to have an impact on the final leaderboard come Sunday evening and Par 4 scoring along with Birdie or Better % is going to tell us who is capable of scoring the most fantasy points along the way.
As always, the FGI PGA Model is going to assist us with our lineup building process because it identifies the best golfers with solid Current Form and whose Key Stats set up nicely for the Glen Oaks Club. It also allows us to factor in Course History as well as an emphasis on Vegas (odds to win). Since there is no Course History this week, our normal allotment there will be distributed to Current Form, Key Stats and Vegas. Below are the FGI PGA Model Overall weights I will be using this week along with the Key Stats weights for the Northern Trust provided by our friends at Fantasy Golf Metrics:
FGI PGA Model Overall weights:
Current Form: 35%
Key Stats: 40%
Vegas: 25%
Course History: 0%
FGI PGA Model Key Stats weights:
SGT2G: 35%
SGP: 20%
PROX: 15%
PAR4: 10%
BOB%: 10%
SCRAM: 10%
Hideki Matsuyama is finally getting the respect from the oddsmakers but it is DJ who tops the market with FanDuel pricing this week. DJ is close to putting his complete game together and I would not put anyone off from playing him this week. He is the #1 golfer in the world after all. At $10,000 though, I personally am having a difficult time looking past Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama, Rickie Fowler and Henrik Stenson right below him. With only a couple of Par 5 scoring opportunities, it will be these golfers whose skillsets gain the greatest advantage and they should be able to adjust the quickest to the new course conditions at the Glen Oaks Club because they are all in top form right now. With some great values on FanDuel this week, it should not be too difficult to fit two or three of these studs in your lineups this week.
Jordan Spieth – $9,900: Jordan Spieth followed up his T35 at the U.S. Open with a thrilling victory at the Travelers Championship. He then took home the Claret Jug at The Open in late July. He added another solid T13 finish at the WGC – Bridgestone Invitational and two weeks ago a respectable T28 finish at the PGA Championship on a course that doesn’t really suit his game. The Glen Oaks Club is absolutely a course that suits Jordan’s game and I fully expect him to get right back into contention this week after sharing the Major spotlight with his good buddy Justin Thomas at the PGA Championship.
Rickie Fowler – $9,400: Rickie Fowler appears to be in career form right now and the Northern Trust is as good of a chance as any at securing another victory this season. Last time out at the PGA Championship Rickie finished T9 and had a Sunday round of 67. He is going to need to continue that great golf right into the Northern Trust if he is looking to get the job done this week. Even if Rickie does not win this week, he still offers Top 5 upside and should be one of the leading fantasy scorers this week.
Paul Casey – $9,000: Paul Casey continues to show excellent form and should be ready to make a run in the FedExCup Playoffs and it starts with the Northern Trust this week. His T5 finish at the WGC – Bridgestone Invitational was backed up by a T13 finish at the PGA Championship last time out. Paul Casey see a significant bump in salary this week but $9,000 still offers value on FanDuel for a golfer who has been making cuts and putting up a lot of fantasy points all year long.
Matt Kuchar – $8,600: Matt Kuchar continues to get the job done for fantasy owners this season and the Northern Trust should be no different for the fan favorite. Another Top 10 at a Major this season shows that he is in complete control of his game and is very close to finding the winner’s circle once again on the PGA TOUR. A season leader in SG: Around The Green should come in handy at a course where sometimes saving par is considered a victory. Expect Kuchar to get going early though and feed off of the crowds in New York.
Kevin Kisner – $7,700: Kevin Kisner has treated many of us well this PGA season and I do not see how he cannot come through once again at the Northern Trust. He was in contention all four rounds at the PGA Championship and even though he did not win, he has shown the tenacity to overcome physically and mentally tiring events all season long. The Glen Oaks Club is another course that rewards the exact type of golfer that Kevin Kisner is. His recent form suggests that he is once again getting close to getting the job done.
Marc Leishman – $7,400: Marc Leishman continues to show solid form this season and that was once again confirmed his last time out with a T13 finish at the PGA Championship. Since his last missed cut in early May, Marc Leishman has added four Top 20’s, a Top 10 and another Top 5 to his 2017 PGA TOUR resume. The Aussie has the ability to score fantasy points in bunches and is priced only at $7,400 on FanDuel this week. This is a great value and should allow for a top tier golfer or two to fit in your lineup.
Francesco Molinari – $7,000: Francesco Molinari has played very well on both the PGA and Euro Tour this season. He is coming into the Northern Trust after posting a T2 finish at the PGA Championship and before that a T24 finish at the WGC – Bridgestone Invitational. Molinari did miss the cut at The Open but so did a lot of good golfers that week. The Italian has been a steady cut maker this season and has shown that at big events throughout his career as well. My hope is that he can continue his Top 10 form again at the Northern Trust and provide some much needed finishing points this week.
Charley Hoffman – $7,000: Charley Hoffman is having a career season on the PGA TOUR this year and he is once again underpriced on FanDuel this week. His respectable T48 finish at the PGA Championship was preceded by a 3rd place finish at the WGC – Bridgestone Invitational. Charley has been on a nice run of quality finishes and most importantly, he provides the upside we are looking for in big events. There should also be a little extra motivation during the FedExCup Playoffs as he is looking to secure his spot on the Presidents Cup roster.
Webb Simpson – $6,700: Webb Simpson almost got the job done last week at the Wyndham Championship and is now headed to the Northern Trust with positive momentum. He has been in form all season with several close calls and if he can keep that momentum going from, he could easily find himself in contention this week. Accurate off of the tee accompanied by a solid wedge game is what Webb is and I fully expect him to reward those who continue to play him in their lineups this week.
Chez Reavie – $5,700: Chez Reavie is a streaky golfer but he continues to display great form right now. He has made eight straight cuts which includes last week’s T37 at the Wyndham Championship, a T22 finish at the PGA Championship as well as a T16 finish at the U.S. Open. With accuracy off the tee and a solid approach game, Chez is set for another quality fantasy scoring performance at the Northern Trust. He has already shown Top 25 upside in stacked fields like this so finishing points are definitely something he is capable of providing as well.
Also to be taken under advisement:
Hideki Matsuyama – $9,600
Henrik Stenson – $9,300
Jon Rahm – $8,900
Ian Poulter – $6,300
Robert Garrigus – $4,500
Good luck.
-Erik Dantoft
@edantoft on Twitter
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