Presidents Cup Preview
Welcome to Week 39 of the Golf Calendar Year!
There is a concurrent event on the DP World Tour and one that will get covered, but most of the golfing world will keep their eyes on the Presidents Cup this week. DraftKings has some offerings up and we will take a crack and see what we can do to make some scratch before the PGA’s Fall Swing resumes next week.
The 2024 Presidents Cup, set to unfold at Royal Montreal Golf Club, marks another chapter in golf’s biennial team competition, where the United States faces off against an International Team composed of the world’s best golfers outside of Europe. This event, while not carrying the historical weight of the Ryder Cup, offers a unique blend of competitive golf and strategic betting opportunities, especially when viewed through the lens of current team dynamics, player form, and historical trends.
Historically, Team USA has dominated the Presidents Cup, winning 12 out of 14 encounters with one tie. This year, the odds again heavily favor Team USA, with betting markets suggesting a better than 70% chance of retaining the cup. This dominance is not just statistical; it reflects the depth of talent within the U.S. roster, featuring players like Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele, who have been in scintillating form throughout the year. This year, with Mike Weir leading the International Team, there is an added layer of national pride, especially with three Canadian players on the roster, trying to help lead the charge of the underdog’s pursuit of a return to greatness. Weir’s record in the event was an impressive 13-9-2. Weir played for the Internationals here in 2007 and rose to the occasion with a 3-0-1 mark, which includes a singles victory over Tiger Woods. There is value that can be found with the Internationals as the home country players have done well in the 6 matches that have been held in their home country. Should history repeat itself here, that should spell good things for Conners, Pendrith, and/or Hughes.
The Royal Montreal Golf Club, established in 1873 and recognized as North America’s oldest, has seen its current course, the Dick Wilson-designed Blue Course, operational since 1959. It has hosted 10 Canadian Opens, with its most recent in 2014. This week, it hosts the Presidents Cup for the second time, following a previous event in 2007 where the U.S. dominated. The course underwent a major renovation by Rees Jones before the 2007 event, and further tweaks were made this year, including bunker work, fairway narrowing, and lengthening some holes, to prepare for this prestigious event.
The Blue Course, set at 7279 yards with a par of 70, features varied hole lengths and strategic challenges. With 12 par 4s, 4 par 3s, and 2 par 5s, the tree-lined parkland course offers narrow, often dogleg fairways, bordered by challenging rough and strategic bunkering. The greens, small and elevated with mixed grasses, are tough to hit and maintain, accompanied by deep bunkers and tricky contours. The back nine intensifies, with water features in six holes, culminating in the challenging par 3 17th and a demanding par 4 18th. This layout should ensure a dramatic finish to many matches during the event.
The choice of venue plays a pivotal role in match play, as evidenced by historical precedents like the 2018 Ryder Cup. Royal Montreal, with its history of rewarding accuracy off the tee, presents a unique challenge. The course’s layout, unchanged significantly since the last Presidents Cup here, favors players who can navigate its narrow fairways and demanding greens. This aspect could influence team selections and strategies, with a premium on precision over power.
The Internationals have the experience edge in the event with their roster have played 128 matches in the cup to the 47 of the US Team; however, the US Team has performed better with a 15% better win record in the event.
Knowing all of this, how do we make money this week? The simplest answer is to key in on players that you think will do well here, but most importantly play in the most matches to maximize point scoring opportunities. The Internationals have set a precedent in doing that over the last 3 Cups and in the 2022 match, there were 5 Internationals that played in all 5 matches. There is likely to be an undefeated player from the winning squad, with the assumption being that they are American and your prime choices for that honor would be Scottie or Xander. In the case of Xander, you assume that he will partner up with Cantlay at least part of the time. While in the case of Scottie, you assume that he might partner up with Burns, but I do not think it is an absolute certainty that is the case the entire week.
The pricing is out for DraftKings as of now, but the opening matches are not. Once the matches are posted on Wednesday Afternoon, I will add an addendum as to which golfers I am leaning on, why and build directions that I would consider.
Wednesday Add-Ons:
Sometimes looking at the betting market is an effective way to get to your DFS picks, so let us start there.
Betting Market.
If you adjust the prior Presidents Cups final scores to the current year, you get a 17.25-12.75 US victory.
Correct Score: US/17-13, +1100; US/17.5-12.5, +1200; US/18-12, +1200. These are the directions I would go, but I would not fault you for a US/16.5-13.5 selection, but it feels a bit short to me. I will have exposure to the initial 3 in equal bet amounts.
Day Correct Score: Without knowing who is going out and when it’s hard to place this bet far in advance, but once the day’s individual pairings come out, it’s not a bad bet especially on the final day of singles and/or you believe a specific day will be dominated by one side or the other. Shop around.
Stat to Bet. The US has led after Days 1, 2, 3, and 4 in 7 of the last 8 Cups.
Top International Point Scorer: You can look at the history before 2015, but since the format was changed slightly that year, the last 4 years are the most relevant.
2015: Day, Scott, Oosty, and Grace all went out for 5 matches. Grace scored 5 points. (Oosty scored 4.5 points).
2017: Day, Leishman, Vegas, Oosty, and Grace all went out for 5 matches. Oosty scored 2.5 points. (Grace won 2 points).
2019: Scott, Leishman, An, Ancer, and IM all went for 5 matches. IM and Ancer both scored 3.5 points. (Scott won 2.5 points).
2022: Scott, T. Kim, C. Davis, Deki, and IM all went for 5 matches. SW Kim scored 3 points from just 4 matches. (IM won 2.5 points)
Takeaways: You have for sure that you have 4 golfers go out for all 5 matches, if not all 5. And it does not appear to be a given that a 5-match player is the optimal selection for the bet, but it is likely to be the case. Not everyone that goes out for 5 matches will necessarily be worth a bet or play in DFS either. Based on the history, once you figure out the 5, I would lean heavily on 2 and mix in a 3rd and fade the other 2.
In each of the last 4 Cups, a player from the home country has finished among the team’s top 4-point scorers (I am looking at you Conners, Pendrith, and Hughes).
2024/Prediction:
Scott (He has played 5 matches in 3 of last 4).
IM (fits the course and played in 5 in each of last 2).
Conners (Played in 4 as a rookie in 2019, the event is in Canada now, and he seems like a good course fit).
I think those 3 are locks, I think the remaining 2 are Tom Kim and Hideki Matsuyama.
The bet: Adam Scott/Hideki Matsuyama: +700 (I would act on both).
Top US Point Scorer: Again, you can look at the history before 2015, but with the format change in 2015, it is the latter 4 events that are the most relevant.
2015: Spieth, Watson, and JB Holmes(!!) went out for all 5 matches. Z. Johnson and Mickelson won 3.5 points each from just 4 matches. (Spieth and Watson won 3 points) (Watson and Holmes paired up for the 4 non-singles matches).
2017: Spieth, Thomas, Reed, and D. Johnson went out for all 5 matches. DJ won 4.5 points. (Spieth, Thomas, and Reed each won 3.5 points) (Spieth and Reed paired up for the 4 non-singles matches).
2019: Cantlay, Thomas, and Schauffele went out for all 5 matches. Thomas won 3.5 points. (Cantlay and Xander each won 3 points). (Cantlay and Schauffele paired up for the 4 non-singles matches).
2022: Spieth, Thomas, and Burns went out for all 5 matches. Spieth won 5 points. (J. Thomas won 4 points) (Spieth and Thomas paired up for the 4 non-singles matches).
Takeaways: Again, it is likely to be a narrow group of 3 golfers that go out for all 5 matches as there are plenty of alpha dogs on this team that want to get involved. And if history is any indicator, you will want to figure out which pairing will end up sticking together for the weekend and lean heavily on them.
2024/Prediction:
I would assume that Xander and Scottie both get run out for 5 matches here. The question really becomes do you think Xander rides with Finau all weekend or do they get broken up and he gets placed back with Cantlay at some point? And then does Scottie ride with Henley all weekend or does he get placed back with Burns or even Morikawa?
The Bet: Xander Schauffele: +450 (he is 2nd best behind Scottie and assuming he continues the partnership with Finau this feels like an edge here and seems likely to get at least 3.5 points here. Xander/Finau are the new JT/Spieth?)
Stat to Consider: If you examine the leaderboard of the last Presidents Cup here in 2007 as well as the last 2 Canadian Opens held here in 2001 and 2014 driving accuracy stood out. The top of the leaderboard in the two Opens as well as the two US Point Scorers were among the most accurate during that season on tour.
Based on Career Measured Rounds, best in DA of the 24 in the field: Morikawa, T-Kim, Conners, Henley, IM, and Harman.
Where does that leave us?
At face value that should leave you with a starting point of: Scottie, Xander, Finau, Scott, IM, Conners, T-Kim, H. Matsuyama. If you can jam in as many of those into a lineup as you can and filter down, you should have a great starting point for your lineups.
Based on the initial matchups if you are following my advice and my 5 Internationals are correct. I would go overweight on Deki/Conners.
I am not as convinced that Scottie and Xander will both carry 5 matches with either partner, but I do think you could build with that thought in mind. Scottie/Henley is a LOT better partnership than people will realize at least initially. I would not be stunned if they carried on, especially if they fare well in Thursday’s match.
Preferred Pool:
- $11,600/Scottie Scheffler – #20 in DA in ’24 through Tour Champ.
- $10,800/Xander Schauffele – Won 2 Majors in ’24. Has not missed a cut in 22 starts. 10-7 record in PC and RC combined.
- $9,800/Collin Morikawa – #3 in DA in ’24 through Tour Champ.
- $9,400/Hideki Matsuyama – .432 WP in PC with 7-10-5 record in 22 matches.
- $7,200/Sahith Theegala – Rookie. Did feature in 2018 Arnold Palmer Cup as Amateur. 9 Top 10 finishes this past season.
- $7,000/Adam Scott – .428 WP in PC with 18-25-6 record in 49 matches.
- $6,200/Brian Harman – 2-2-0 record in this past year’s Ryder Cup. Won 5 points in Walker Cup in ’05 and ’09. Made 21/23 cuts this past season.
- $6,000/S.W. Kim – #16 in DA in ’24 through Tour Champ.
- $5,800/Tony Finau – 6-5-3 record across PC and RC play.
- $5,600/Corey Conners – #33 in DA in ’24 through Tour Champ.
- $5,000/Russell Henley – #9 in DA in ’24 through Tour Champ.
- $4,600/Keegan Bradley – 6-5-1 record across PC and RC play.
Time to make some money together. It is a great course and should be excellent viewing. Best of Luck!
–Nik(@MrGuruNick)
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