Bonus Model Targets – Travelers Championship

 

The PGA seasons final major is now in the rear view mirror as we go full steam ahead into the final few events prior to the FedEx Cup playoffs and Ryder Cup. Dustin Johnson disappointed many last week as he came in at a whopping 30+% ownership across all contests. Kisner, McGirt and Lingmerth worked well in our plays and all of our fades, outside of Brooks Koepka, helped us at the PGA Championship.

This week we’re back to a lot of course history and many guys that have historically played very well at TPC River Highlands in Cromwell, Connecticut for many years. Outside of those usual names, I’ll pick a few outliers that I think will perform well this week along with the usual golfers I’ll be fading.

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Top Plays

 

Bubba Watson: It’s an obvious play but he had to be listed. He will likely be the highest owned in the top tier of golfers this weekend. His upside, even at the highest salary of the week, is obvious with two victories and two additional top-ten in his last six starts here. With a decent amount of “punt play” value down below, it’s hard to overlook Bubba.

Paul Casey (Updated, 8/3 @ 4:30PM EST): Casey was our top play in the model for the PGA last week and it worked out perfectly as an under 2% owned play with his top-ten finish. He will go under-owned again this week with his salary bump. He’s an accuracy and GIR monster and one of the best in the field this week. ** News broke late Tuesday night that Casey is battling with an injured left toe / foot. After gathering more news, I will personally be playing Casey the same amount as prior to the news. However, we wanted to let our subscribers know of the injury and increased risk. **

 Jamie Donaldson: Jamie is extremely underpriced for his upside this week. Ranking in the model 55^th, he still has shown flashes of his top-thirty world ranking in previous weeks. He allows for salary relief and the high upside GPP plays us tournament players look for.

 Other plays I like (in order of preference):

• Ryan Moore
• Kyle Reifers
• Soren Kjeldsen
• Jon Curran

 

Fades?

 Branden Grace: Grace gets the title of “high price fade” this week. He missed the cut in his only start here last year. We know about his stellar record in majors, but with more golfers with better course history playing this week, I’ll look elsewhere in pivoting off Grace.

 Russel Knox: Another one that has struggled at the Travelers in his four career starts. Carding only one top-twenty finish over that time he’s an easy fade for me this week.

Shane Lowry: I don’t see what DraftKings sees in terms of his inflated salary again this week. Outside of his strong showing at the US Open, Lowry hasn’t performed well in a mostly inconsistent season. Another one with zero course history coming into this week, he’s easy to avoid with the value this week.

Others I will be avoiding:

• Russell Henley
• Patrick Reed
• Louis Oosthuizen
• Patton Kizzire (Withdrew)

 

Best of luck this week!

 

 
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