Monday Night Showdown- Lions @ Packers

Lines:

Lions @ Packers (-11.5)

o/u = 48

 

DVOA

Packers against the run #21
Packers against the pass #32
Lions against the run #30
Lions against the pass #30

The Packers were embarrassed last week in Jacksonville against the Saints.  Both their offense and defense were a mess and they were uncompetitive the entire game.  If ever there was a perfect bounce back game, a home game against the Detroit Lions would be it.  The oddsmakers are of the same belief as me in that the Packers are going to bounce back in a big way on Monday night and are thus an 11.5 point favorite.  The Packers have won their last four meetings with the Lions.

Items to note: Ty Williams has already been ruled out for Monday night.  Filling in for him will be Quintex Cephus to go along with Kalif Raymond (questionable) and Amon-Ra St. Brown.  In a game where the Lions will likely be playing from behind most of the game, I am thinking one of these guys could be a big sleeper and help win the slate for somebody.  If we can identify who will get coverage from Kevin King (RCB) and Chandon Sullivan (slot) the majority of the time and stay out of Jaire Alexander’s coverage, we will be much better off.

 

Favorites:

DaVante Adams, $11,800

• Absolute smash spot for Adams. Lions allowed 9/189/1 to 49er #1 Deebo Samuel last week
• Even with as big of a disaster as GB was last week, Adams still caught 5 balls on 7 targets.
• My favorite Captain this week. 50%

Aaron Rodgers, $11,400

• The perfect bounce back spot against the Lions who ranked 6th worst against the pass last year DVOA and 3^rd worst last week.
• Threw for 530 yards and 5 tds against the Lions last year.

TJ Hockenson, $9,600

• Had 11 targets last week (8/97/1) and will continue to see massive volume because the Lions wide receiver talent is so thin.
• Adam Trautman had 6 targets last week against the Packers
• Negative game script for the Lions has them passing a lot in this game.
• Possibly a sneaky/contrarian Captain pick.

Value:

Robert Tonyan, $6,400

• Awful game last week, but is a redzone monster. Caught 11 tds last season.

Marquez-Valdes-Scantling, $5,600

• 9/149/1 in the two games vs the Lions last year
• Saw 8 targets last week. Big play potential

Sleepers:

AJ Dillon, $3,000

• Good spot for Dillon to get a lot of carries being heavy home favorite.
• Lions allowed 127 rushing yards to runningbacks last week.

 

Amon-Ra St. Brown, $2,400

• Played almost exclusively in the slot last week, which will take him out of Jaire Alexander’s sight.
• Had 2 catches for 23 yards on 4 targets.
• Likely recipient of some garbage time catches underneath.

Randall Cobb, $2,000

• Washed up, but Aaron Rodgers demanded the Packers sign him in the offseason. Rodgers is going to try and force him the ball in games like this, just so he does not look like a complete jackass.

 

Also: Quintez Cephus

 

 

Possible lineups:

C- Adams/Rodgers/Hockenson/Scantling/Dillon/St Brown

C-Adams/Rodgers/Tonyan/Cobb/Hockenson/St Brown

C-Rodgers/Adams/Scantling/Cobb/Hockenson/Cephus