Model Musings – The Masters

Model Musings – The Masters

By Erik Dantoft a.k.a Stats Guy

I’m a terrible golfer.  I have more X’s on my scorecard than Pars or Birdies and usually need to buy another bucket of golf balls after every round of golf I play.  It’s easy for me to admit that I’m terrible at golf and not worry about any backlash because I doubt I’ll ever make it in one of your DFS golf lineups.  But that’s where we as DFS golf players need to figure this out on our own with the golfers in a particular field as we are building our lineups.  At the end of the day, we’re trying to get as many golfers in our lineup that aren’t terrible at golf.  As most of you already know that is way harder than it sounds.  You might think you have the perfect lineup and then only have three golfers make the cut.  That’s where I want to help you identify certain golfers you might be overlooking as you’re building your lineups.  I’ll be using the FGI Model I put together for you every week to help you better understand the rankings and other key metrics in it.  Hopefully I can make the tool easier for you to use and also help you find some of your own sleepers.

This week for The Masters we have a field packed with studs.  It hard to argue that any of the top 10 ranked golfers in the model don’t have a realistic shot at winning it this year.  We have a few past winners and a few that have come really close.  We also have a few that are peaking at the right time and are ready to add the Green Jacket to their wardrobe.  One thing I take a lot of pride in when I’m building the model every week is getting it calibrated as precisely as I can with up-to-date 2016 Stats (blended with 2015 Stats as Team FGI sees best fit) and Current Form (using the proprietary “Who’s Hot” formula).  But those numbers can only tell you so much until you’re able to relatively compare them to each of the golfers in a particular field each week.  In other words, a golfer may be really good at PAR3 Scoring but we want to know where he ranks in the entire field each week for PAR3 Scoring versus where he’s ranked on the overall PGA stat leaderboards.

This week for The Masters I’m going to highlight a few golfers at the different salary tiers that rank high in Driving Distance (DD) and Scrambling (SCRAM).  I’m specifically interested in these ranks because our friends at FantasyGolfMetrics identified these stats as key metrics for success this week at The Masters.  Let’s get at it!

Using the FGI Model for The Masters and sorting the “DD” column from “Largest to Smallest” here’s a few names along with their DK salary and where they rank this week:

Top Tier:

Bubba Watson  $11,400 – #2

Dustin Johnson $10,200 – #3

Middle Tier:

Brooks Koepka  $8,100 – #5

J.B. Holmes         $7,400 – #1

Low Tier:

Daniel Berger     $6,200 – #9

Scott Piercy        $5,900 – #15

 

Now let’s look at “SCRAM” doing the same thing:

 

Top Tier:

Jordan Spieth    $12,300 – #10

Phil Mickelson   $10,500 – #2

Middle Tier:

Patrick Reed       $8,300 – #1

Bill Haas                $7,500 – #4

Low Tier:

Chris Kirk             $6,700 – #15

Russell Knox       $6,600 – #6

 

Again, Driving Distance and Scrambling are just two of many metrics to consider this week.  The FGI Model does a pretty good job aggregating all of the analytics into an “Overall Rating” but when you’re able to peel back some of the layers of that overall rating it helps you better understand why a golfer is ranked high or low that week.  Ultimately the goal each week when building DFS golf lineups is to try to accurately predict how a golfer’s skillset translates to the type of course they’re playing along with their Current Form and a little Course History.  DFS Golf is a higher variance sport so sometimes taking a chance on a guy that may not be ranked at the top in the “Overall Rating” but maybe ranks higher in a few particular key stats could be the difference in taking down a GPP.

 

Good luck this week!

 

-Erik (a.k.a. “Stats Guy”)

@edantoft on Twitter