LIV Golf Invitational – Adelaide

Nice to see Doral get some extended action again as a venue. I watched more of Miami than any other LIV event so far this season. Before you ask, I used it primarily as a Masters research project and nothing more. I did not think the event was as great as Hong Kong, but I think they may get this thing with LIV right eventually. As far as out picks for the week, it was still a pretty good job for our pool as we had Niemann, Reed, Pieters (quite helpful at $6,300 might I add) that finished inside T13 among the secondary picks, Bryson who finished 7^th and eventual winner, Dean Burmester, among the primary picks.  Burmester held off Sergio Garcia in a playoff to capture his 3^rd win in his last 9 golf events played. Congrats to those of who had Burmester in your player pool and/or outright betting picks. The picks gave you a great path, but you still need some middle pieces in the Top 13 to do well which we did not have, but here is hoping that you did.

And week 3 of AK watch – 53 of 54. 53-50-53 in 3 LIV starts so far. A realistic goal this week might in fact be something inside the Top 50, but we will see.

Last Event/Miami Results:

1. Dean Burmester
2. Sergio Garcia
3. Matthew Wolff
4. Marc Leishman, Jon Rahm, Tyrrell Hatton
5. Bryson DeChambeau, Louis Oosthuizen
6. Abraham Ancer, Thomas Pieters, Joaquin Niemann, Patrick Reed, Talor Gooch

 

We return to Adelaide for year 2 of an Australian stop for LIV. We had Gooch in our pool last year for the event at Adelaide and he got the job done. Do we fancy him for a repeat performance? Time to dive in and find out. Do not forget that they tee off at 9:45PM Eastern on Thursday PM!

 

Event Overview:

Liv Golf Invitational – Adelaide

The Grange Golf Club

Grange, South Australia

 

A Par 72 (36-36) at 6,946 yards

[A 10 Par 4, 4 Par 3, and 4 Par 5 setup).

 

Notes:

 

The course this week will be a composite blend of the Grange East and West courses. Vern Morcom is listed as the designer for both courses; however, both were redesigned in the last 15 years. Mike Clayton redesigned the West Course in 2008 and Greg Norman redesigned the East Course in 2013. The Grange has an additional interesting connection with Greg Norman as it was the site of his first professional win in 1976.

 

The West course is considered wide, undulating, and suggests laying up and playing the strategic approach game into the greens. While the East course is more of a hybrid blend of bunkers, trees, and wetlands. They grew the rough out last year to try and toughen the course up, but with 43 players in last year’s field finishing at PAR or BETTER, I don’t think it matters much what they do as the course as ridiculously too short for today’s golf and doesn’t have the challenges that say Hong Kong did for a shorter course. I have heard of a few tweaks here and there that were made for this year’s event, but I expect it to play eerily like last year.

 

The notable hole for the week should be the 12^th as it has been dubbed “The Watering Hole.” It will be fans, not players, which end up finding the drink this week as it should be a rowdy, Australian-style clone of the 16^th hole at TPC Scottsdale – with the Stadium experience to boot. And quite a rowdy party it was last year as its 77,000+ in attendance propelled this event to receiving the title of “World’s Best Golf Event” in 2023 by the World Golf Awards.

 

The most recent events held on the course were the 2016 and 2019 Women’s Australian Open, but otherwise there is no discernable course history available.

 

Last year’s quotes from DJ and Bryson referencing precision-over-power and how many holes will require laying up should tell you all you need to know about the shorter hitters with a stronger short game should have a bit of an advantage, proved true as the firm and fast layout of the course required just that and should again this year.

 

Stats to Consider:

Heaviest Consideration (in no particular order): Total Driving (HEAVY lean on accuracy over distance), Par 4 Scoring, SG: APP, GIR, Birdie Average, Scrambling, SG: P

With only half the field having any kind of shotlink data in the last 6 months, I have elected to take a longer-term approach and use a 75 round baseline to get an estimate of a starting point as LIV stats are still sporadic and difficult to come by.

 

[those with gains of 0.50 strokes per round in the 4 major categories are listed. Not all rounds are equal. And not all have the same number of rounds. But I did think it was worth throwing out there for reference’s sake]

OTT: DeChambeau, Pereira, Kokrak, Na, Puig, Rahm, Meronk, Watson, Niemann, Koepka

APP: Stenson, Steele, Pereira, S. Munoz, Rahm, Koepka, Surratt, Mickelson, Swafford, Hatton, C. Smith, D. Lee, Niemann, Poulter

ARG: Stenson, Poulter, Reed, Varner III, Bland, C. Smith

PUTT: Oosthuizen, Puig, C. Smith, Reed, Bland, Koepka, Varner III, Herbert

(Below I have parsed out the Top 25% in the field in Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy, based on the same period)

Driving Distance: DeChambeau, Burmester, Uihlein, Vincent, Rahm, D. Johnson, Niemann, Wolff, Puig, Surratt, Koepka, Meronk, Chacarra, Watson

Driving Accuracy: Stenson, Ancer, Munoz, Bland, Oosthuizen, Na, Gooch, Garcia, Perez, S. Vincent, McDowell, Watson, Casey, Poulter

 

DFS Names to Consider for the Entire Event: (All salaries based on DraftKings prices in US Dollars)

High End Plays (Over $9,000):

Cameron Smith – ($9,900): Currently sits in 12^th place in the individual standings and if there is a place for him to make a run up the leaderboard, it should be here. Withdrew from Miami and finished last, but in the prior 4 LIV events he finished 8-15-41-2. Finished 4 shots behind Gooch here last year in 3^rd place with rounds of 69-66-66. Ranks 14/Birdies and 1/Putting Average so far this season in the league.

Talor Gooch – ($9,400): Won the event here last year with rounds of 62-62-73. And you could argue he took the gas off in round 3 if you followed much of the event last year. Compared to last season, it has been a quiet start to his LIV season with finishes of 15-2-6-21-9, but he still ranks 10^th in the individual standings. 13 of his 15 rounds to have been shot at 70 or lower thus far in his LIV season. Ranks 6/Fairways Hit, 7/Birdies, 5/Scrambling, 16/GIR, and 6/Putting Average so far this season in the league.

Dean Burmester – ($9,300): We have been on him for most of the season thus far and I do not see any reason to jump now, even with a $300 bump off the win at Miami. Finished T7 here at Adelaide last year with rounds of 66-69-67. Burmester has a record of 1-1-T44-T3-T39-T31-T15-T8-1 in his last 9 golf events in the world. Can he go back-to-back again? 14 of his 15 rounds have been shot at 70 or lower thus far in his LIV season. Ranks 16/Birdies, 4/Scrambling, 8/GIR, and 3/DD so far this season in the league.

 

Middle-Tier Plays ($7,500 and $8,900):

Patrick Reed – ($8,800): With some of these courses in LIV, I still struggle with the fact that Reed has not performed better across the now 3 seasons he has been involved with the league. This feels like as good of a place as any for a potential breakout from him. He finished 4 shots behind Gooch last year in 3^rd place with rounds of 71-65-65. Only 9 of his 15 LIV rounds this season have been shot at 70 or lower, so his 2 T20 finishes in 5 events makes sense. He could be rounding on the verge as his last 3 starts worldwide have resulted in finishes of T4-T9-T12. Ranks 26/Fairways Hit, 12/Scrambling, 17/Putting Average, and 24/Driving Distance so far this season in the league.

Lucas Herbert – ($8,200): I expect massive things from the all-Australian Ripper GC in their home country event after last year’s 8^th place finish and I think Herbert will be the deciding factor as to how well they do here. Finished 7^th in the ISPS Handa Australian Open in November and has a 21-45-22-15-51 record in the 5 LIV Events this season. His two poorer finishes came at courses where his game was not as good of a fit. I expect a rebound here, with his short game skill set on display. Ranks 19/Birdies, 5/Putting Average, and 23/Driving Distance so far this season in the league.

Richard Bland – ($7,900): Finished T32 here in the event last year after rounds of 66-71-72. I expect a better performance here, so I am willing to pay up. I was a little stunned to see he was as much money as he is, but it makes sense when you see that he has an 11-15-31-8-14 record in 5 LIV events this season. Ranks 16/Fairways Hit, 18/Birdies, 16/Scrambling, and 1/GIR so far this season in the league. His success this week will depend on what he does on the greens.

 

Value Plays ($7,400 and Lower):

Sebastian Munoz – ($7,300): Finished T21 in the event here last year after rounds of 73-65-67. Like Bland, he is another golfer that has been flying under the radar playing quietly above the middle of the pack with finishes of 13-9-22-21-27 in 5 Events thus far. 12 of his 15 rounds have been shot at 70 or lower so far this season. Ranks 9/Fairways Hit, 2/Birdies, 16/GIR, and 20/Putting Average so far this season in the league.

Kevin Na – ($7,200): 11 of his 15 rounds have been shot at 70 or lower so far this season with no round worse than 73. Has quietly put together a 17-34-15-6-24 record in 5 LIV Events to rank 23^rd in the individual standings. Finished T11 here last season after rounds of 68-69-67. Ranks 9/Fairways Hit, 9/Birdies, 3/Scrambling, and 6/Putting Average so far this season in the league.

Graeme McDowell – ($6,800): In a bit of a boom or bust selection, I will take a shot with McDowell here this week. 9 of his 15 rounds have been shot at 70 or lower so far this season in the league and like Reed, he, too, has 2 T20 finishes in 5 starts. McDowell finished T36 last season here with rounds of 67-69-74 and that 3^rd round was derailed by just a few holes and that 74 was not as bad as the card makes it look. Ranks 1/Fairways Hit, 23/Birdies, and 19/GIR so far this season in the league.

 

Other Players of Interest:

$9,400 – Abraham Ancer

$8,100 – Charles Howell, III

$7,700 – Peter Uihlein

$7,600 – Henrik Stenson

$7,200 – Harold Varner III

$6,900 – Bubba Watson

$6,900 – Matt Jones

$6,800 – Scott Vincent

$6,600 – Ian Poulter

 

That is, it from here. Do not forget to track the LIV Slack Channel – for updates. Thanks for reading and Best of Luck this week from the FGI Team!

–Nick (@MrGuruNick)