Jeff’s Hardcore Core- Zurich Classic of New Orleans

We switch gears this week to the only team event on the PGA Tour, The Zurich Classic of New Orleans.  TPC Louisiana has hosted the Zurich since 2005, but in 2017 this event switched to a team event.  I will talk about my strategy for team events as well as what teams I will be playing in my core.

Best of luck this week Team FGI!

Jeff’s Strategy & Core- Zurich Classic of New Orleans-

The format for this event is two rounds of four-ball (best ball) rounds 1 and 3 and foursomes (alternate shot) rounds 2 and 4.

Here are the course details for TPC Louisiana-  7,400 yards, Par 72, speedy bermuda greens, Pete Dye design.  The fairways are quite a bit wider than last week at Harbourtown, but then again what course isn’t.  Here are the courses I will be using on our course comparison tool:

#1 TPC Scottsdale.  Similar length, slick bermuda greens.

#2 Stadium Course (American Express).  A bit shorter, but a par 72 with average wide fairways, short rough, and slick bermuda greens.

#3 Corales Golf Club (Puntacana).  Similar length, wide fairways, short rough, and bermuda greens.

#4 TPC San Antonio (Valero).  Similar length, Par 72 with short rough, and slick bermuda greens.

 

Here is how my FGI Model sets up: 50% Current Form, 30% Key Stats, 10% Vegas, and 10% Course History. Current Form- 10% Last 52 weeks, 50% Last 13 weeks, 25% Last 2 weeks, and 15% Last 1 week.

Stats- 20% SG:T2G, 10% SG:APP, 20% Putting, 10% DD, 10% Prox, 5% Par 5, 20% BOB%, and 5% SCRAM.

 

I have always favored teams that have experience playing with each other. The Fitzpatrick brothers are of course playing together again as are defending champs Ben Griffin and Andrew Novak.  There are actually a lot of cases where pairings of guys who have had success here in the past, just not with each other.  It will be interesting to see if that translates into success.  Analyzing past years leaderboards indicates a high level of unpredictability in this event. We see some names that you would never guess would be able to compete.  I typically like to own teams with at least one player in decent form, but sometimes that does not even matter.  It makes a ton of sense to be as contrarian as possible this week.

Another strategy that is interesting is pairing guys who’s strengths and weaknesses compliment each other.  For example one guy is outstanding from tee to green and the other in the short game and putter.  Or more specifically one that is great off the tee and the other great in the approach game. Teams obviously know this and are strategic about how they utilize that.  There are a few teams that I have found that compliment each other like that.

 

Brothers Fitzpatrick, $10,500

• Nobody hotter than Matthew lately (runner-up at The Players and wins at Copperhead and Harbourtown).  Matthew is not the only one coming off a win though as Alex won the Hero Indian Open on the DP World Tour.  That followed a T14 and T6 prior to that.  Both are in top form.
• Matthew is terrific on comp courses and bermuda and although they missed the cut here last year together they finished T19 and T11 the previous two years.
• Given both of their form, the price should be even higher than it is.
• With the pricing this week it is super easy to stack Fitzs with another $9k team.

 

Ben Griffin, & Andrew Novak, $9,700

• I don’t normally target defending champs just because they are defending champs, especially when I think ownership will be higher because of it.
• In this case however I am not sure it will be as Griffin has not been in great form.
• Recently Novak’s tee to green game has been stellar, while Griffin has relied on his short game.

 

Ryan Gerard & Sudarshan Yellamaraju, $9,500

• This is a wild card and real shot in the dark.
• Both of their form has been quite good coming into this week.
• Gerard loves putting on bermuda and finished T12 here last year (Walker)
• I think this team gets overlooked in this price range and we get a good number for ownership.

 

Michael Thorbjornsen & Karl Vilips, $9,400

• A couple of young guns who finished T4 here last year together shooting -25.
• Thorbjornsen is a future star and Vilips has posted some solid finishes this season as well with a T18 at comp course AMEX and T19 at Houston.

 

Sahith Theegala & Aaron Rai, $9,200

• Both have played this event multiple times, although only last year with each other when they finished T18.
• Rai has finished Top25 each of his four appearances.
• Theegala has put together an excellent comeback season this year and has seven Top 25s.
• Interesting pairing because Theegala tends to be longer off the tee and less accurate, while the strength of Rai’s game is driving accuracy.

 

Sam Stevens & Zachary Bauchou, $8,300

• Nobody is going to own this team, but both guys have had some solid finishes this year (Bauchou- T28 at Valero, T21 at Puerto Rico, T23 at PGA National, and T13 at AMEX’ Stevens T6 at AMEX, T16 at Riviera, and T5 at Houston)
• Bauchou is a rookie here, but Stevens has gone T4 and T24 here the last two year.
• This is one of my contrarian plays in a contrarian price range.

 

Keith Mitchell & Brandt Snedeker, $8,100

• These two actually teamed up in 2021 and 2022 finishing T4 in 2021 and missing the cut in 2022.
• Outside of 2022, both have made the cut in each appearance since then.
• This is the epidemy of complimenting one another as Mitchell is the exceptional ball striker, while Sneds is the wizard on the greens.

 

Seamus Power & Matthias Schmid, $7,700

• Their first time teaming up although both have played this event multiple times.
• Both of these guys are very much high ceiling/low floor types of players, so this is a boom or bust play.
• Both are better putting on bermuda than other turf and both have a couple

 

David Lipsky & Rico Hoey, $7,600

• We know Hoey is long off the tee, while Lipsky is not.
• When you analyze recent stats, Lipsky has been strong in the short game and around the green while Hoey better off the tee.
• Lipsky has had a ton of success here in the past, while Hoey not so much.
• It will be interesting if their games can compliment each other as it appears they should

 

Sam Ryder & Beau Hossler, $7,300

• The reunite after missing the cut together in 2024 and then splitting last year to both miss the cut with different partners (Hoey and Putnam respectively).
• Long history for both playing this course, and both have a Top 5 to their name.
• Both have had a couple of reasonable finishes this season on tour.
• Ryder’s is better in the approach game, while Hossler excels around the green and with the putter.

 

Patton Kizzire & Chris Kirk, $7,100

• A couple of SEC guys team up (Kirk-Georgie and Kizzire- Auburn).
• This will be the first year of them playing together, but both have long track records of playing this event, with some decent results.
• I like to target both of these guys on Southern courses as Kizzire putts much better on bermuda.
• Kirks recent stats look pretty nice and he has been making cuts.

 

Billy Horschel & Tom Hoge, $7,100

• Both are long time attendees of this event and both have popped a few times.
• I like how Hoge is know for his elite ball striking and approach game, while Billy has been known for the flat stick, especially on bermuda.
• Neither has had tremendous form this year, but compared to other teams in this range, it sure is not bad.

 

Justin Lower & Chad Ramey, $7,000

• The course history for both of these guys has been great. Ramey with three straight Top 10s and Lower with a couple Top 10s in his four years.
• Lower has not been good this year, but Ramey has been better than usual.

 

Nick Hardy & Davis Riley, $6,500

• This is a true test of whether course history matters. Neither has done anything, but in this event they have made the cut together the last three years (T32, T28) and won in 2023.
• There literally is not anything else to like about this team, than their track record on this course, in this event. Oh and the price.

 

A few low cost/low owned options I will a few shares of:

Skinns/Mullinax, $6,600

Stanger/Walker, $6,600

List/Norlander, $6,200