Jeff’s Hardcore Core- Zurich Classic of New Orleans

Talk about a mixed bag last week. I totally nailed the picks of several guys like Charley Hoffman (1st), Daniel Summerhays (T13), J.B Holmes (T13), Chris Kirk (T13) and Aaron Baddeley (T29). But got mauled by the likes of Dechambeau, Koepka, Patrick Rodgers, and Andrew Loupe. I faded Jimmy Walker and Phil Mickelson just because I thought they would be very highly owned and had the opportunity to disappoint and that paid off. Overall, I cashed in several GPPs, lost in others, but did not hit anything huge, which is always the goal. Remember when you play GPPs, you are going to win big a very very small percentage of the time. All it takes however is a big score a year to make you a winner. Be sure to play cash games to steady your bankroll as well, since GPPs are so volatile and you can go on extended losing streaks. After a slow start this year The Hardcore Core has really been outstanding the past month and have identified the winner several times.

This week we head to New Orleans for the Zurich Classic. I am going to be talking a bit about a strategy that I am contemplating implementing this week and one that has the potential to elevate you to a tremendous week. It is not however, for the weak of heart.

Good Luck this week.
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So here is my thought this week. There are clearly 3 studs in this field-Jason Day, Justin Rose, and Rickie Fowler and this is no secret to anybody. Everything checks out for these guys-course history, current form, stats. For this reason I envision the masses to be loading up on all three of them. I can see all of their ownership approaching 25-30% in most GPPs. In the larger dollar GPP’s I can picture ownership even higher, possibly approaching 80% between those three. A lot of GPP success is based upon game theory rather than sheer numbers. Based upon the facts and the numbers, the big three look like obvious plays. But when you factor in the tremendous ownership that I am expecting, the volatility of the sport of golf, and the variance that this particular tournament presents (because of the low scores expected), I see it as a possible opportunity to fade all three. Might this not work and all three do incredibly well? Of course, that is a possibility, but look at it this way, if you roster them and they do well, you are not really separating yourself from the field at all and it will come down to the other 5 guys on your team. At their price, if they finish outside the Top 10, they far under-performed their price and if they finish 5th for example, it is not a disaster. Only if they were to finish, say Top 3, would fading them completely fail as a strategy. I have not decided for sure whether I am going to implement this strategy myself, because I obviously like all three this week and have included all of them in my Hardcore Core, BUT I wanted to discuss it with you, valued FGI members and let you know what I was thinking. Strategies like this present themselves sometimes and I have won big money a few times because of them and I have also gotten burned other times. Decide for yourself whether you like the strategy or not and if you decide to roll with it, do not beat yourself up if it does not work this one time.

Day (or fade as strategy describes)

Rose (or fade as strategy describes)

Fowler (or fade as strategy describes)

Berger

Leishman

Howell III

An

Lovemark

Kizzire

Woodland

M Hoffman

Martin

O’Hair

Hearn

List

Toms

Loupe

Wilkinson

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