Jeff’s Hardcore Core- Waste Management Phoenix Open
There is a reason the Waste Management Phoenix Open has been named the PGA Tour Tournament of the year four times in the last seven years. A fun TPC Scottsdale course combined with an excitable crowd, and of course the stadium hole on 16 is unlike any other on tour. Normally a solid field, this year is absolutely stacked with 18 of the top 30 players in the world making an appearance. After a couple quirky events over the last few weeks, we get a one course event with a standard 36 hole cut. There is a smaller field as well (132 players). This is one of those events during the year, that we tend to have done very well with over the years. Let’s continue that success this year. Good luck Team FGI!
Jeff’s Strategy & Core- Waste Management Phoenix Open-
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UPDATE- As is the case a lot lately, I am in need of updating my core because of a WD. This time it is Webb Simpson, who I was real high on coming into the week. I really thought coming into the week that Xander Schauffele was going to be very chalky, but as I monitor the industry I am not quite sure his ownership is going to be crazy. For that reason I am going to add 30% exposure to him, which probably will not get me to 2X overweight, but it should get me close to 1.5X. I just think so highly of Xander’s all around game and his ability to win on any course against any field. Plus we get a nice discount as we usually do for him in loaded fields. On the opposite end of the pricing range I am going to add exposure to Matthew NeSmith (15%) You might say, but don’t you remember last week what happened? And yes I did remember that, which is why I did not own him originally. The problem with that is we need a short memory in this crazy game of DFS. We must also realize he was one blow-up hole away from easily making the cut and who knows what kind of run he could have made on Sunday. He remains a very good ball striker (44th in SG:BS) and approach player (30th in SG:APP over his last 16 rounds). Actually when you look at his stats they have been pretty decent all around in that time period. He finished T7 here on this ball strikers course last year. Let’s just hope he can wipe his memory clean like we are. I am also mixing in a few shares of Talor Gooch (tournament history be damned) and Doug Ghim.
TPC Scottsdale is a course that pure ball strikers have had a lot of success at through the years of this event. The course is a Tom Weiskopf design and is 7,261 yards. The fairways are narrow, but the rough is generally very manageable. Bombers can definitely utilize their length this week as there is not a ton of penalty for being for being inaccurate. There are desert areas with cacti that can gobble up some balls if they are way off the beaten path and there are some water hazards as well. I will be placing emphasis on driving distance as well as on SG:BS on our rolling stats model. Click the column heading SG:BS and sort from best to worst.
The greens are back to bermuda this week and tend to be on the speedy side. Be sure to consult our putting splits tool to see who the best putters are on bermuda.
Here is what I like for corollary courses
#1 Stadium Course (The American Express) Both are desert style courses, with similar length (within 200 yards), both have Bermuda greens, both have a fair share of hazards, plus the AMEX just happened two weeks ago.The great part about this year is that three rounds were played on the Stadium Course as opposed to the usual two rounds. Be sure to take a look at the leaderboard from that event.
#2 TPC Sawgrass (The Players) Almost the exact same length, both have narrower fairways, both have speedy Bermuda greens, both have similar scores in relation to par. Interestingly the Stadium Course for the AMEX and TPC Sawgrass are both Pete Dye designs. If you look back at leaderboards for both Waste Management and The Players, there is some commonality.
#3 Sedgefield CC (Wyndham). Similar length with average fairway width, but short rough. Speedy bermuda greens.
#4 PGA National (Honda) which has fast bermuda greens and is similar in distance. It is a bit more difficult than TPC Scottsdale, but I also see some common names do well at both the Honda and Waste Management.
#5 TPC Southwind (St Jude), same distance, narrow fairways, short rough, and bermuda greens.
#6 Country Club of Jackson (Sanderson). A little longer, but has narrow fairways, medium rough, average scoring, and bermuda greens.
Not played last year, but the Golf Club of Houston (Houston Open) is a comp course I have used in the past. Houston has fast bermuda greens, is not far off in length, has short rough, and is similar in scoring difficulty.
Here is how my FGI Model will look this week- 45% Current Form, 30% Key Stats, 10% Vegas Odds, and 15% Course History. Current Form- Last 52 weeks 10%, Last 13 weeks 60%, Last 2 20%, and Last 1 10%. Stats are 20% SG:T2G, 10% SG:APP, 20% SG:P, 10% DD, 8% PROX, 7% PAR 5, 17% BOB, and 8% SCRAM.
I will likely be adding a few more guys to my core as the week goes on, so check back.
With such a loaded field this week, the top tier is difficult to navigate and decide who to roster. After much deliberation I am going to go with Jon Rahm. Certainly not bold to say the least owning the #1 player in the world, but I said to myself at the start of the year that this guy is just flat out better than anybody else right now. So far he has a runner-up at Kapalua, T14 at AMEX, and T3 at Farmers. The former Arizona State Sundevil has not finished worse than 16th place here in any of his six appearances and has three Top 10s. He is yet to win here, but that is just a matter of time. Stats remain phenomenal (7th in SG:T2G, 2nd in SG:OTT, 15th in SG:APP, 2nd in SG:BS, and 17th in SG:P). He will likely be owned in the low 20% range, so I will own 40% to be close to 2X and elect to be contrarian with the other part of those rosters. There is plenty to choose from in the $7k range this week.
Strong in most every statistical category, Scottie Scheffler has become a well-rounded, elite player in the world (#15). Long off the tee (26th in DD over his last 16 rounds) and a good ball striker (11th in SG:T2G, 12th in SG:APP, and 33rd in SG:BS). Finished T7 here last year and has good form coming into this week (2nd, T25, and T20). Feels like a good time for his first win on tour. 35-38%
When I pivoted off the top guys last week when Berger withdrew, I landed on Matthew Fitzpatrick, which ended up working out really well (T6). Fitz is an absolute monster on bermuda greens gaining .862 shots. His form has been good dating back to his win at the Andalucia Masters. He was overlooked last week and I think that might happen again this week again with no tournament history. He has been striking the ball well (25th in SG:BS over his last 16 rounds) and has some momentum coming into this week. 28-30%
I expressed my surprise in my betting column about Webb Simpson’s odds this week and following right along the odds is his price on DK ($8,600). I understand Webb has not been playing much lately and does not have the best form coming in, but it is far from a disaster (T61 at Sony, T8 at RSM, and T14 at CJ Cup). Webb has a terrific history at TPC Scottsdale, finishing Top 20 in six of his last seven appearances with three Top 10s, a runner-up in 2017 and win two years ago. If he was priced in the mid $9k range I would not be so eager, but this price is barely over average, so I will own 28% UPDATE: WD on Wednesday
I worry a little bit that Corey Conners run is come to a screeching halt with two straight missed cuts, but I am not ready to jump overboard just yet. Looking closely at his most recent rounds at the Stadium Course at AMEX (comp course) he actually gained 3.7 strokes on the field, including 2.6 from tee to green, 2 in approach, and 1.1 on the greens. He lost so much ground on the field on the two super easy courses. At Torrey Pines he gained 2.3 strokes from tee to green on the South Course and .4 in the approach. He was just destroyed on the POA greens losing 4.5 strokes. This week he is back on bermuda greens where he is .377 strokes better than other grass. Being that TPC Scottsdale is a ball strikers course, there are not many better pure ball strikers on tour than Conners. Even with his most recent struggles he ranks 15th in SG:T2G, 9th in SG:BS, and 24th in SG:APP over his last 12 recorded rounds. He has a T45 and T17 in his two appearances here. 30-34%
An up and down history for Russell Henley at TPC Scottsdale (T16, MC, T15, MC, T30), but his form right now is spot on. His last four events he has gone T7 at Houston, T22 at RSM, runner-up at Sony, and T14 at American Express (comp course). Henley’s three career wins have all been on comp courses (PGA National, Waialae, and Houston). Over his last 12 rounds played he ranks 6th in SG:T2G, 5th in SG:BS, 4th in SG:APP, and 25th in SG:P. He is a better putter on bermuda than other grass (.342 vs -.004). I like Henley’s changes to make a run this week. 34-36%
Nobody is striking the ball better right now than Luke List who notched his first PGA Tour victory his last time out at Torrey Pines. I normally do not love rostering a guy coming off a win, but he has had a week off to calm down from his win and he has just been spectacular lately with his tee to green game. Over his last 24 rounds he ranks 1st in SG:T2G, 4th in SG:BS, 2nd in SG:OTT, and 17th in SG:APP. He also has a few decent, but not amazing finishes here the last five years with a T26, T25, and T30. This is a ball strikers course and with as well as List has been striking it, I have to own him. 25-28%
You have to like the current form for Andrew Putnam coming into this week. A T6 last week at Pebble, where he was a lackluster final round away from a win. That made seven of his last eight cuts made, with three Top 15 finishes mixed in. Over his last 16 rounds he ranks 42nd in SG:T2G and SG:BS, and 11th in SG:APP. Those might not seem amazing, but considering he is one of the best putters on tour, those will do just fine. Over his last 16 rounds he ranks 12th in SG:P. Putnam finished T7 here last year. Putnam is a streaky player and is on a really nice streak right now, so we should get a solid performance for his price. 25-28%
Keith Mitchell snapped back last week at Pebble (T12) after a disappointing missed cut at Torrey Pines. He has only missed that one cut in his last six events played and in that time now has four Top 15 finishes. Mitchell won at comp course PGA National in 2020 and has a couple other good finishes at comp courses. He gains .224 strokes on bermuda over other grass and over his last 16 rounds played he ranks 18th in SG:T2G and 29th in SG:BS. He missed the cut here last year, but finished T16 the year before. 23-25%
I am going to continue to buy Denny McCarthy. A T12 at Pebble last week and a T6 before that at the American Express. That makes seven straight made cuts for him with five of them being Top 15 finishes. His track record here is mc, T59, T33, but he is playing different golf than before in his career (good). Some real nice finishes at comp courses in the last few years including a T3 at Honda last year, that T6 at AMEX, T9 at Wyndham in 2020, and T6 at Jackson in 2020. The strength of his game is clearly putting (1st in SG:P over his last 12 rounds), but he is also striking it well (37th in SG:T2G). He gains .421 strokes on bermuda grass over other grasses as well. 23-25%
Four straight made cuts at TPC Scottsdale for Keegan Bradley (T43, T67, T49, and T22). Always a solid ball striker, Bradley ranks 22nd in SG:T2G, 22nd in SG:BS, and 15th in SG:APP over his last 24 rounds played. He has made both of his cuts this year so far (T12 at Sony and T65 at Farmers). Makes a good amount of cuts and gives us a little upside 20-22%
Sliding all the way down to $7k is Mito Pereira this week, which provides some nice value considering the floor and ceiling he has demonstrated thus far on tour. This fall he missed just one cut and had a 3rd at Fortinet and just finished T25 at Torrey Pines. Over his last 16 rounds he ranks 20th in SG:APP and 21st in SG:BS. He has also been putting well (14th in SG:P) and putts .331 strokes better on bermuda. 20-22%
A very nice -13, T9 finish for Pat Perez last week at Pebble Beach. That follows up a T6 finish at Farmers the week before. Interestingly, Perez is an Arizona guy born and raised, attended Arizona State, and now lives in Scottsdale. He had some success in this event years ago (T19 in 2012 and 11th in 2014), but not much since (WD in 2017 and MC last year). Through the years Perez has had success on our comp courses and ranks highly in our course comparison tool this week. 15-18%
It was quite a nice run for Martin Laird here at TPC Scottsdale up until a couple of years ago. From 2014-2019 he went T19, T5, T41, T7, T9, and T26. He has finished T55 and missed the cut here the last two years. Laird is a Scottsdale resident which is interesting and he his ball striking has been really good over his most recent rounds (22nd in SG:T2G, 23rd in SG:APP, and 24th in SG:BS). His putting remains atrocious, but maybe some home cooking will help him putt a little better this week. He should be very low owned, so a contrarian guy priced in the $6k range is intriguing for 15% exposure.
Rahm $11,600
Schauffele $9,700
Scheffler $9,100
Fitzpatrick $8,700
Conners $8,300
Henley $8,200
Gooch $7,800
List $7,700
Putnam $7,500
Mitchell $7,500
McCarthy $7,200
Bradley $7,200
Pereira $7,000
Laird $6,800
NeSmith $6,600
Ghim $6,600 (10-12%)
Other low owned/low priced guys I will own at 10% or less:
Knox $7,300
Ortiz $7,000
Lashley $6,700
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