Jeff’s Hardcore Core- Valspar Championship

It was Saturday morning about 11:00 and I was on Interstate 94 heading to my office from Tartan High School where my son had just won the district qualifier in the 6U wrestling division and qualified for the regions in Lakeville next weekend. I was obviously riding pretty high with pride for him as he had wrestled extremely well. I was also riding high because every time I checked my phone Hideki Matsuyama had birdied another hole and given a nice boost to one of my rosters in which I had in many different GPPs. My current winnings at that point were roughly $150,000. Now I have been around this game and betting in general my entire life, so I am well aware how quickly things can go pear-shaped and winnings can evaporate. Zach, of course has also seen the unthinkable happen in fantasy, betting, poker, etc to ruin what looks to be a big win. We are both as pessimistic as you can be can when it comes to our ability to win giant events. It comes from decades of close calls whether it be the World Series of Poker, local poker tournaments, sports betting, DFS you name it we have been close so many times. So in that spirit, I receive a text from Zach as I am exiting 94 that says- “How’s this going to go wrong?”.

We had actually been thinking the same thing as I was perched in first place in multiple GPPs. Well from that point on, pretty much everything that could go wrong, did go wrong. Here was that roster and you will see how it unfolded- Rory, Fleetwood, Poulter, Knox, Kisner, and Matsuyama. If you have been playing DFS for a while, there is no doubt you have experienced something similar. You would think that as many times that I have experienced this feeling I would become numb to it, but it remains just as painful each and every time.

It’s funny, for folks that have not experienced this crazy DFS game that we have all chosen to dive into, they have no idea just how crazy emotional things can get. As I chat with my Mom today at lunch and she asks me how I did last week and I tell her I was up about $1k and she responds, “Oh that is great”, and she can’t quite understand why I am so down about it. Anyway, just thought I would let you know that you are not alone in feeling the great joy of nice wins and the agony of close calls. If you ever need a shoulder to cry on or a bad beat story to vent about, just hit me up via email at jeff@fantasygolfinsider.com, as I am more than familiar with your pain and more than happy to listen.

This week is the Valspar Championship and we will dive into that, but first let’s recap the core for THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP.

What went right? We have been riding Rory every single event this season and it has been beneficial every time, but last week was what we have been waiting for, the win. In my Wednesday email, I mentioned a couple of additions to my core, strictly because the absolute ignoring of them and their depressed ownership. I decided to shift some shares to Rose, Rahm, and Bryson as it would not take much to put me overweight and all three became solid plays. Fleetwood, Scott, and Matsuyama were also very solid contributors to our GPP rosters. In addition some lower priced guys like Kisner, Knox, Horschel, An, Woodland, Wallace, and CHIII also outperformed their price, but for the most part were missing that weekend push into the Top 10 that would help give us a chance to win a large field GPP. In the case of Kisner and Knox both were inside the Top 3 heading into the weekend, which made their efforts over the weekend that much more painful.

What went wrong? As I watch the NBC sports live stream on Thursday and hear that Rickie Fowler woke up extremely sick, my expectations for the week were instantly lowered. Well he played like he was sick the whole week and although he made the cut, did not give us much above that. Those who did not make the cut that we had significant exposure to included Patrick Cantlay, Paul Casey, Glover, and Cabrera Bello. In the case of Rafa and Casey, their performance was not just worse than the Top 70 guys, it was pathetic and enough to put them nearly last. As is the case sometimes, golf is unpredictable and nothing could have led to us believing this kind of result was coming. I don’t believe this type of performance at TPC Sawgrass is predictive of future performances either. Often times, we can use these types of performances as leverage on the field when chalky plays like this kill so many people and those folks swear off rostering them in the coming events. We need to have a short memory in DFS and not let our emotions get involved. Believe me that is easier said than done as it is going to take every ounce of rationale that I have in me to roster Ian Poulter again anytime soon.

Overall, despite my near misses, it was a positive week and yet another week this season in which we have hit our core. I will continue to grind my ass off to try and provide you the most elite information available anywhere in the industry. Best of luck this week Team FGI!

Jeff’s Strategy & Core- Valspar Championship

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