Jeff’s Hardcore Core- Valspar Championship

There is no getting around the fact that last week was one of those that we need to plug our nose and try and forget about. There were very few highlights and a whole lot more lowlights. I talked in depth about the strategy of fading Dustin Johnson last week due to ownership. I even said that there is nothing not to like about him this week, but it is worth taking a chance if we can fade 40% of the entries in GPPs. Well turns out others had the same ideas and faded DJ as well and so much so that he only turned out to be owned between 15-20% in most GPPs. When the lineups locked and I saw that, I felt sick to my stomach. At that moment, if I could, I would have shoved all in on him.  Zach and I were talking through the decision of whether to go 100% DJ or fade him completely up to lineup lock and if we knew the ownership would have turned out like it did our decision would have been different.

I always study GPP results across the board and did notice that none of the Top 4 finishers in the $33 Dogleg had DJ on their roster, which surprised me. This just validates how powerful the strategy of fading the top priced guy (or anyone for that matter) is.  It does not necessarily always disqualify us if that guy happens to win. After a dreadful start on Thursday Brandt Snedeker stormed back and put up the third most Draftkings points of anybody for us. Rahm, Pieters, Holmes, and Vegas also gave us positive performances. The biggest problem was our exposure to Henrik Stenson, who pulled the very popular move on the PGA Tour right now of withdrawing with a minor ailment when things start poorly. I knew this would be a concern for the WGC event, since the paychecks are guaranteed, I just wish I could have told you who would pull the stunt. Credit goes to Rory McIlroy who toughed out his tummy ache, but Stenson just is not the type of guy who is ever going to do that. Fading Spieth proved to be beneficial, but the guys I pivoted to like Adam Scott, Justin Rose, and Rickie Fowler put up sub-par performances and ruined any chances I had of making any sort of run.

We need to pull ourselves up by our bootstraps and not pull a Stenson and quit. We need to work harder than ever in our research and get back on track the coming week. We have some great contests coming up and obviously the majors are coming as well.  Best of luck this week my friends!

Jeff’s Hardcore Core-

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