Jeff’s Hardcore Core- Tour Championship
It was a good, but not amazing week for the PGA Hardcore Core for the BMW Championship. Sure we had the winner (Dustin Johnson) and others put up really nice finishes for us like Adam Scott (T4), Ryan Palmer (T4), Patrick Reed (T13), and Russell Knox (T17). But, we had some really lousy performances like Rickie Fowler, Jason Dufner, and Tony Finau. Not to mention Jason Day bowing out early and costing us some points. This week we have only a 30 man field for the Tour Championship, so with that our edge from identifying players and ownership weightings just is not there. For that reason, I advise that you scale your bankroll back. I will be playing about 20-25% of my normal weekly bankroll this week and none in cash games (all GPP). There are some intriguing contests, with the $4 Fore on Draftkings where the winner wins $100,000. You will have to be a bit contrarian however, because with 150,000 entries and only 30 players, there are going to be a lot of duplicate lineups. I will talk a little about some possible contrarian strategies below.
Good Luck this week!
Jeff’s Hardcore Core- Tour Championship
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I am going to share a newsflash with you: Dustin Johnson is going to be heavily owned. Probably upwards of 40-50%, if not more. Although it seems unfathomable right now that DJ does not finish in the Top 5 based on what we have seen from him this year, let me remind you it is golf. Who would have guessed that he tank at the PGA Championship? Do I think DJ will tank? Do I even think DJ will finish outside of the Top 5? Probably not, but what if he does? If you fade him, you will set yourself apart from half of the field. Even if he finishes 5th, it is not going to ruin your chances of a high finish. What I am saying is consider it. If you want to have 100% exposure to DJ, I am actually ok with that this week as well. You need to make a decision with conviction and rationale and let the chips fall where they may. Ultimately, it is one week with a reduced bankroll and you need to do something to separate yourself from a ton of other entries. Personally I am choosing to fade DJ and Rory because I think that close to 70% of lineups will have one of them. This could easily backfire and they could both be in the final pairing on Sunday, but this is how I am going to try and separate myself from 150,000 other people.
We will be monitoring closely the Jason Day situation. If it looks as though his back will not be an issue, I think it presents us with an opportunity. Most people will be afraid and see his withdrawal as a warning. In his last three events played he took 2nd at the PGA Championship, 4th at The Barclays, and T15 at Deutsche Bank. In my opinion the car accident that his wife was in during the Deutsche Bank messed his head up real good while he was in Boston. His accuracy has not been good, but he is still able to overcome it and finish high due to his immense talent and putting. At BMW, he wasn’t playing great, was out of contention, and had some back pain. Does that necessarily mean that he has a serious injury or could it be that he just wanted to leave the tournament early, not make the pain any worse and give himself a couple of weeks to heal before the Tour Championship, which if he wins can make $10 million? We need to monitor the situation and quotes heading into next week, because if it appears that he will be fine, it will be one heck of an opportunity. He will be the lowest owned of the top guys, because people will be scared of the injury and withdrawal. We have seen Day numerous times come out and dominate after injury or illness concerns. If we can get Day at about 15-20% this week, I think it is a real nice pivot off of DJ.
The final way to differentiate yourself is to not use all of your allotted salary cap. The vast majority of the time people spend most of their salary cap ($49,500 or more) if not all of it ($50,000). If we build lineups that leave more than $500 left in cap space it is going to reduce greatly the amount of similar lineups to ours. The tough part is determining how much to leave without sacrificing too much value. Most weeks I would not recommend leaving more than $500, because I think it would be detrimental to the strength of your team, but this is a much different week. The talent pool is so strong that I do not think you will be costing yourself too much value if you leave up to $1,200 left in cap space. When I build a lot of my lineups I will be targeting that $500-$1000 left in cap space mark.
Jordan Spieth
Jason Day *If reports sound promising regarding his back next week.
Adam Scott
Patrick Reed
Hideki Matsuyama
Brandt Snedeker
Daniel Berger
Roberto Castro
Kevin Na
William Mcgirt
Kevin Kisner
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