Jeff’s Hardcore Core- The Open Championship
The fourth and final major of this season, The Open Championship is this week’s event in Scotland. Royal Troon Golf Course is the host course and last time it hosted was back in 2016 when Henrik Stenson outdueled Phil Mickelson. Other members in this field were atop the leaderboard as well.
One interesting thing is to see Scotland host another event after last week’s Scottish Open as we saw Bobby Mac (member of my Crystal Ball article) win again this year.
Quick shoutout to FGI member Ernest Baynard who cashed $2k on Draftkings last week!
Best of luck this week Team FGI!
Jeff’s Strategy & Player Core- The Open Championship-
Important thing to note is that the cut this week is Top 70 + ties.
Royal Troon Golf Couse is a typical Scottish links course that sits on the coast. It measures 7,190 yards and will play as a Par 71. The fairways are narrow and they will play fast with a lot of run. The greens are on the small side, will play firm and fast as well, and are composed of a mix of bentgrass and POA.
As we typically see at Open Championships, if you get off the fairway there is long fescue, deep bunkers, and gorse bushes to deal with.
The last time Royal Troon hosted was in 2016, so we can consult that leaderboard from that event. I also always consult leaderboards from most Open Championships as the courses are typically very similar. Those are available on our Tournament History Page.
I am not necessarily eliminating guys because of their performance at last week’s Scottish Open, but it was a links style, coastal course, with some other similarities to Royal Troon. Many of the guys strategically come over and play that event as a tune-up for this week’s Open Championship on a somewhat similar course. Last year Brian Harman finished T12 at the Scottish Open before winning The Open Championship and in 2012 Cam Smith finished T10 at the Scottish before his win. A good, solid performance will give a solid boost in my rankings.
Weather is almost always a huge factor for The Open and it certainly was in Royal Troon in 2016. Difficult rain and winds can pop up almost instantly. It is too early in the week to pin down a strategy based upon the forecast, but be sure to be watching it all the way up to lineup lock. Stacking tee times helped me win a Fantasy Golf World Championship ticket in 2015 when I saw a huge weather edge early in the am right before the opening tee time.
On links style courses I typically place more importance on around the green play and scrambling than I normally do. I will look closely on our Rolling Stats Tool to see who has been strong in SG:ATG and also include it in my FGI Model.
My FGI Model will look like this- 45% Current Form, 30% Key Stats, 10% Vegas, and 15% Course History. Stats- 20% SG:T2G, 10% SG:APP, 25% Putting, 15% SG:ATG, 5% PROX, 15% BOB%, 10% SCRAM.
Rory McIlroy, $11,400
Rock solid again last week at the Scottish shooting four rounds of 68 or better and finishing T4. That was his 4th Top 5 finish in the last couple of months. Outside of a slip up in 2019, Rory has been really good at Open Championships the past decade with six Top six finishes in his last eight appearances. One of those was a T5 on this course in 2016. Statistically, everything is working right now (3rd in SG:T2G, 3rd in SG:OTT, 14th in SG:APP, 19th in SG:ATG, and 18th in SG:P over his last 16 rounds). I might regret going away from Scottie this week, but for the price I like Rory and Ludvig. 40-45%
Ludvig Aberg, $10,100
The opportunities for a win don’t get much better than last week at the Scottish for Aberg. However, a closing round 73 derailed him after shooting 64-64-65 the first three days. He is really close however and it feels like we have been warned that a victory is coming. I have been saying all year how talented this kid is and we have seen the greatness on many occasions. A runner-up at Augusta and Pebble to go along with a T5 at Memorial, and the T4 last week. His all around game is really strong and lately he ranks 17th in SG:T2G, 26th in SG:APP, 33rd in SG:ATG, and 20th in SG:TOTAL. In comparison to the odds, we are getting a nice price here as he sits at a 10-1 favorite, which is shorter than Xander, Bryson, and Rahm who are all priced higher than him. 35-40%
Collin Morikawa, $9,900
A couple of missed cuts the last two year in Open Championships after his win in 2021 are difficult to explain. I think we get a rebound this year in this event because his form has been super strong lately. Ever since Augusta where he finished T3, he has been smoking hot, including a 9th at Harbourtown, T4 at the PGA Championship, 4th at Colonial, runner-up at Memorial. And T4 at the Scottish last week. His form has been as good as anybody in the top tier lately, yet he is priced at $9,900, so we well gobble up the value. 30-35%
Ty Hatton, $9,500
I think Hatton has a real chance to win this week. He is coming off a win at the Nashville LIV event and then a 3rd place finish at the Andalucia event. He was strong at Augusta with a T9 and even managed a T26 at the US Open a tournament that he typically struggles really bad. He has a couple of Top 10s in his career at Open Championships, including a T5 at Royal Troon in 2016. The last two he has gone T20 and T11. This is a really great spot to start a balanced lineup. 35-40%
Cameron Smith, $8,900
A winner at the Old Course at St Andrews in 2022, Smith has made the cut in Open Championships in his last five appearances. It is no surprise he has done so well, because his strengths are his short game and putter. He has had plenty of success on the LIV Tour this year having recorded six Top 10s, including runner-up finishes at Hong Kong and Singapore. His most recent finishes have been a 32nd at the US Open, 9th at Nashville, and 6th at Andalucia. Cam was a Top 5 player in the world (as high as #2), before he left for LIV, so the talent is certainly there.
Tony Finau, $8,700
Finau missed the cut at The Open last year for the first time in his career (made the cut his previous six tries). When you look at his form coming into last year’s Open however, it was ugly, so I am going to overlook that. He finished T18 at Troon in 2016. His form this year coming into the week is stellar as he has recorded a T8 at Memorial, T3 at the US Open, and a T5 at Travelers. I love his most recent stats as well as he ranks 6th in SG:T2G, 2nd in SG:APP, 5th in SG:ATG, and even 38th in SG:P over his last 16 rounds. The putting number is telling, because that is where he usually struggles. He is also a guy that putts better on bentgrass and POA than on bermuda. He fits really nicely into a balanced lineup. 30-35%
Hideki Matsuyama, $8,500
It is a habit of mine to own Hideki in major championships, although this is the major that I tend to own the least amount of shares. A T13 in last year’s edition he has missed more cuts in this event than any other major. He does have some solid finishes throughout his career and is a guy who clearly turns it up a notch in majors. Over his last 48 rounds and 16 rounds alike he ranks #1 in SG:ATG. His putter has also been better than usual lately (36th in SG:P over his last 16 rounds). We can easily have a Hatton/Smith/Finau/Hideki stack, which looks real nice. 25-30%
Shane Lowry, $8,200
A couple good showing in majors for Lowry his last two with a T6 at the PGA Championship and a T19 at The US Open. His last event played was the Travelers where he finished T9. We have seen him struggle in some Open Championships, but that was mostly earlier in his career. He won in his homeland in 2019 and then delivered a T12 and T21. He has some of the biggest putting splits on bentgrass (+.539). Another great candidate for balanced rosters. 24-28%
Robert Macintryre, $7,700
I typically do not gravitate toward guys who won the previous week, but Bobby Mac, just won in his homeland and he gets to follow it up this week. Last week’s victory was his second of the year (RBC Canadian), and I would assume he will remain focused for the home game for him this week. He is four for four in made cuts in Open Championships with a couple of Top 10s. No surprise he ranks highly in the odds vs pricing tool this week (+11). He is rewarding me big time for featuring him in my Crystal Ball article.
Cameron Young, $7,500
Young’s success has come in spurts this year including back to back finishes of 2nd at Valspar and The Masters where he finished 9th. Recently he is trending positively as well with a 9th place finish at Travelers and 6th at Rocket Mortgage. In those 8 rounds he ranks 5th in SG:T2G in this field, 8th in SG:OTT, 15th in SG:ATG, and 33rd in SG:APP. Interestingly he has a runner-up and 8th place finish in The Open Championship the last two years. Interesting because looking through his career as an amateur it does not appear he has hardly any links golf experience. I had high hopes for Young going into this season because I think so much of his talent. With things trending for him, this would be a good spot for a big finish and the price is sick. 25-30%
Aaron Rai, $7,300
If there is something not to like about Rai this week, then I am not seeing it. He is playing impeccable golf right now coming off a runner-up at Rocket Mortgage, 7th at John Deere, and 4th last week in Scotland. Over his last 12 rounds he ranks 21st in SG:T2G, 22nd in SG:APP, 37th in SG:ATG, and 1st in SG:P. He is doing everything well. He finished T19 at The Open in 2021, but this is a different version of Rai. We need to look at how sensational he has been most of this season. I will keep going back to the well with Rai. 30-35%
Sahith Theegala, $7,200
You cannot have this guy priced this low. Theegala is at a +10 in our odds vs pricing tool this week. He put up a couple less than stellar performances since his T12 at Memorial, but last week he rebounded and finished T4 at the Scottish. Not much to speak of for Open Championship history (T34 and mc), but I just think he is to good of a player (#11 in the world) to be priced here. 25-30%
Abraham Ancer, $6,600
Absolutely nobody is going to own him this week, so it is certainly a contrarian play. He is another one of these guys that has left for the LIV Tour and been completely forgotten about. When he left the PGA Tour, he was a Top 30 player in the world. This season on the LIV Tour he has four Top 12 finishes including a win at the Hong Kong event. He has made his last three cuts at The Open with his best finish being a T11 in 2022. I think many of these LIV guys are underpriced and will be underowned. 10-15%
Rasmus Hojgaard, $6,500
I was on board with the Hojgaard brothers last week at the Scottish Open and Rasmus had the better finish with a 21st. A really solid week on a links course shooting 68-63-70-68, this coming off a 4th place finish at the KLM. Both Hojgaard brothers are legit studs and super young, so their careers are bright. Earlier this year Rasmus put together a string of five straight Top 15 finishes, including three straight Top 10. He missed the cut in his only Open appearance last year. 15-20%
Victor Perez, $6,200
A +8 in our sportsbook odds vs daily pricing tool, upon first glance of the pricing he was a guy who stood out to me as a low owned, punt play. A bunch of PGA events under his belt this year with his best finishes being a T16 at PGA National, T3 at Puerto Rico, T17 at Houston, 3rd at the RBC Canadian, and a T12 at Memorial. He added a T10 finish last week at the Scottish Open. Guys like Perez are how we can stack some top tier guys in the same lineup. 15-20%
Romain Langasque, $6,000
I will take a shot with some shares of the Frenchman for a bargain basement price. He looked good last week at the Scottish with a 3rd place finish. That following a T9 at the BMW International Open. He has also had a T2 at the Soudal Open and T5 at the Hero Indian Open. Those are some quality finishes for a guy down in this range. 10-15%
Matteo Manassero, $5,400
A bit of a resurgence lately from the Italian, Manassero has poste Top 25 finishes in five of his last seven events played including a 15th last week at the Scottish. He has worked his way up to #149 in the world (up from #351at the start of the year). We haven’t seen him in The Open recently, but if you looked back to when he did, he did have some good finishes (T13 in 2009, T19 in 2014). He also has some good finishes at Scottish Opens in his career (T3 in 2016 and T4 in 2014 to go along with last week’s T15 finish). Finally, he sits atop our odds vs pricing tool this week at a whopping +56.
A few other low $/low owned guys I will own at 10% or less:
Sungjae Im, $6,900 (10%)
Louis Oosthuizen, $6,800
Sean Crocker, $5,500
Angel Hidalgo, $5,300 (3-5%)
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