Jeff’s Hardcore Core- The Northern Trust

First off, another congratulations to FGI members Moorehusker who won $25,000 and TheDirtySheikh who won $50,000 last week in GPPs on Draftkings, and all the rest of you who were able to make a very tough week profitable.  Despite the fact that we had 85 guys make the cut at last weeks Wyndham Championship a very low percentage of rosters were able to get 6/6 through the cut.  Fortunately, for the Core, we were able to get most everybody through (13 of 16).  The only guys from the Core to miss the cut were Hahn, Hagy, and Mullinax.  I wish my fear of Stenson starting off poorly and throwing in the towel as he has so many times before, did not overcome my knowledge of how good of a fit he was statistically for the course.  If you had the guts to pull the trigger on Stenson, kudos to you.  Despite not having Stenson in my core, I had several GPP teams finish in the top 10-15% of the field due to great performances from Sabbatini (T4), Flores (T7), Lowry (T7), Werenski (T10), and Van Aswegen (T28).  I had a winning week, but not a monster week, so we will try and hit one of those killer, slaughter everybody weeks during the FedEx Cup Playoffs these next several weeks.

This week we have The Northern Trust (Formerly Barclays) held at Glen Oaks GC, for the first time, so we do not have any course history to work off of.  Instead, we will have to rely heavily on current form and statistics.  Luckily we have our newest tool, the Rolling Stats Tool, which captures how everybody in the field ranks in many statistical categories over recent segments of time.  The reason this is so valuable is because when you look at year long statistical categories, we are  looking back 10-11 months (including the Fall season).  That is a long period of time and we all know how players form can change in much lesser periods of time.  By being able to capture how a guy ranks over his past 2,4,8, 12, 16, 24 rounds it will help identify those players who are trending and possibly on the verge of breaking out.  I will discuss several examples that stand out to me on this tool for this weeks event below.

We have to remember that there are only 120 guys teeing it up this week and still we have the top 70 and ties making the cut.  Statistically it becomes easier to get a full roster through the cut than normal weeks, so we need to get more aggressive with our GPP selections this week.  Normally, a 6/6 lineup on Draftkings or 8/8 lineup on Fanduel would guarantee a GPP cash, but that will not necessarily be the case this week.  We will not only need to have a roster fully in tact come the weekend, we will need most everybody to produce for us to have a chance of cashing high or even cashing at all.

Even though we do not have course history, I still like the data that our FGI Model, Rolling Stats, and Odds vs. Pricing Tool are giving us.

Jeff’s Strategy & Hardcore Core-
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