Jeff’s Hardcore Core- Texas Children’s Houston Open

The official Florida swing has come to an end and we are off to Texas for a couple weeks with the Texas Children’s Houston Open this week and the Valero Texas Open next week.  Then we have The Masters the following week!

We had yet another event come down to the wire last week, this time Matthew Fitzpatrick was able to come through in the clutch and lock it down.

This week we have Scottie Scheffler back in the field, although it is not as deep as it was for last week’s Valspar.

In the few editions that Memorial Park has hosted of this event, it has been very entertaining, so this week should kick off a very fun stretch of golf coming up.

Jeff’s Strategy & Core- Houston Open:

Memorial Park Golf Course is a Par 70 and is 7,475 yards.  It has become known as one of the nicest (and toughest) municipal courses in the country. The PGA Tour decided to return in 2020 after not having played here for 60 years. It was renovated right before that with the input of Brooks Koepka.  The renovation made the golf course more difficult than most municipal courses play.  It has now been played twice in the Spring after a couple of years being played in the fall as part of the swing season.

Memorial Park has not been a course that guys have destroyed.  Last year Min Woo Lee torched the course last year shooting -20, but the year before Stephan Jaegar won with a score of only -12.  In 2021 Jason Kokrak won at -10 (in the fall) and Carlos Ortiz won at -13 in 2020.  The reason it played so much easier last year was because of how wet the course was and the fact that they were able to play Preferred Lies three of the four rounds.

The greens are bermuda, but again overseeded with POA trivialis. They average 7,000 square feet in size, which is similar to PGA National, which we have seen recently. They are a bit speedy, especially if they get some wind that dries them out.  The fairways are on the wide side and not difficult to hit. Unlike the Florida courses, Memorial Park only has water hazards on four holes.

We always have the possibility of significant wind in Texas, so we will absolutely be watching the weather report as we draw closer to tee off.  There are five Par 3s and three Par 5s.

For course comparisons I am going to use-

The Stadium Course (AMEX) which is a bit shorter in length, but has average wide fairways, short rough, slow bermuda greens and easy scoring.

Bay Hill (API)- Similar length, fast greens, and can play difficult.

PGA National (Cognizant)- Shorter, but a Par 70 with fast, Bermuda greens. Also plays difficult.

Detroit Golf Club (Rocket Mortgage)- similar distance, a bit easier scoring, but some real overlap in leaderboards.  Aaron Rai finished runner-up in Detroit last year and has been really good at this course the last three years.  Tony Finau has been really good on both courses, Akshay Bhatie finished T11 here and T2 in Detroit, and Taylor Moore finished T10 in Detroit and T2 here last year.

My FGI Model will look like this- 50% Current Form, 35% Key Stats, 15% Vegas. Current Form-10% Last 52, 50% Last 13, 25% Last 2, 15% Last 1.  Key Stats- 20% SG:T2G,  10% SG:OTT, 14% SG:APP, 23% SG:P, 5% PROX, 8% PAR 5, 15% BOB, 5% SCRAM.

We have seen guys who are long off the tee play well here the last several years.  The winners alone are all considered bombers- Min Woo Lee (ranked 15^th in DD last year), Stephan Jaeger (ranked 21^st in DD the year he won), Tony Finau, Jason Kokrak,

Obviously the biggest decision of the week is whether to own Scottie or not.  His price is at the elevated amount of $14,800, which is nearly $5k more than the next highest priced guy.  That is insane.  Scottie is so far away better than everybody else in this field, but only if he is on his game and he has not been on his game lately.  The biggest thing this week is the strength of the field and what options are available to complete your roster if you own Scottie ($7,040 per player).  This is not an elevated event, so the options available in the low $7k and $6k range are nowhere near what they have been in previous events.  In large field GPPS, I would say that it would be mandatory to own Scottie if he ends up winning, but in smaller field GPPS and single entry I am not sure that is necessarily the case.  The chances of getting five of those low dollar guys through the cut is extremely difficult, much less all of them to put up quality finishes.  Also, unlike other weeks, I think Scottie sees a bunch of ownership this week because the other top tier options are not great.  I have been on the fade Scottie train and it has worked out really well.  I am going to stay on that train at least for the time being given all the factors above.

 

Chris Gotterup, $9,800

• If we are looking for long ball hitter, Gotterup fits that bill.  His approach game is still strong 18th in SG:APP over his last 16 rounds.
• Two wins this season (Phoenix and Sony) and also a couple T18 finishes (Farmers and API)
• Finished T18 here last year.
• Supreme young talent with huge upside.

 

Brooks Koepka, $9,600

• A cool narrative that Brooks helped design this course, not sure if it means much.
• I like the form lately (T9 at PGA National, T13 at The Players, T18 at Valspar).
•  I like the approach game even better (1st in SG:APP in this field over his last 16 rounds).

 

Jake Knapp, $9,500

• A little concerned with his neck/back which was the reason for his recent wd.  I am hoping that was not the reason behind the mc at TPC Sawgrass.
• Prior to that he had been one of the best players on Tour with four straight Top 10s.
• A T27 here last year, .35 strokes better on POA, and 1st in this field in SG:TOT over his last 16 rounds.

 

Nicolai Hojgaard, $9,200

• Perfect in cuts made this year, with a couple high upside finishes (T3 in Phoenix and T6 at PGA National).
• 27th in SG:T2G, 14th in SG:APP, 20th in SG:P, and 11th in SG:TOT over his last 16 rounds.
• The thing that typically costs Hojgaard is the blow up holes and Memorial Park does not have a ton of trouble holes that can turn into huge numbers.

 

Michael Thorbjornsen, $8,600

• If not for a complete meltdown snowman on the 4th hole in the final round at TPC Sawgrass, he would have finished Top 5.
• He also has a T18 at Torrey and T3 in Phoenix this season.
• 25th on tour in driving distance he has plenty of distance to dominate here.
• I think he is a bit overpriced, which will result in low ownership and a great contrarian option.

 

Wyndham Clark, $8,300

• Certainly not the result I wanted from Clark who I was high on last week.  He missed the cut on the number (his first mc of the year)
• Has been really good at Memorial Park finishing T16, T31, and T5 the last three years.
• He is long off the tee and his approach game has been dialed in (6th in this field in SG:APP over his last 12 rounds).
• Has been a good putter in the past, but lately it has been atrocious, so at some point he will revert to the mean in that area and it should propel him back to high finishes.

 

Rasmus Hojgaard, $8,100

• Nicolai has better form, but he is #53 in the world while Nicolai is #47, so they are real close, yet they are priced over $1k apart.
• He has not been good his last few times out, but prior to his most recent struggles he went T3o at Torrey, T24 in Phoenix, and T9 at PGA National.
• He ranks 15th in this field in both SG:APP and SG:P over his last 16 rounds, a nice combo.
• Ranks 4th on the PGA Tour in driving distance and the talent is there.
• Folks are going to write him off because of his last few times out, but it is a small sample size.

 

Pierceson Coody, $8,000

• A bad three event run for Coody (mc at Bay Hill and The Players and T55 at Valspar).
• It could be that he has fallen out form after an amazing start to the year -or- maybe the Florida swing just isn’t for him.
• Coody is a Texas guy having been born and raised here and was a Texas Longhorn.
• He is 2 for 2 in made cuts here although he only had a T52 and T57. He has been good at Colonial another Texas course.
• It is certainly a risk, but he has tremendous upside and maybe the location change will spark back the form we saw at Farmers (T2), Phoenix (T10), and Sony (T13).

 

Sahith Theegala, $7,600

• Even before I saw that he ranked #1 on the odds vs pricing tool this week (+8), I thought Sahith looked like a great value.
• He has missed just one cut this year (last week) after an opening round 77 which pretty much eliminated him.  Outside of that he has a T6 at Bay Hill, T7 at Farmers, T18 at Phoenix.
• He is a killer on POA gaining .475 strokes and is 4 for 4 in making cuts on this course.

 

Tony Finau, $7,600

• We have seen some signs of Finau returning to what he has been in the past as he quietly posted his fourth Top 30 finish in his last six events last week with a T18 at Valspar.
• His recent approach game has been good and surprisingly his around the green game has been outstanding.
• Memorial Park has been a place where Tony has thrived in his career featuring a T24 in 2021, win in 2023, runner-up in 2024, and T32 last year.
• Super cheap for the potential he possesses if he truly is back on track.

 

Gary Woodland, $7,400

• A lot going for Gary this week including being really good at Memorial in his last three trips (T9, T21, and runner-up last year).
• Gary leads the PGA Tour in driving distance.
• Last week he looked good finishing T14 and was great from tee to green gaining strokes in three of the four rounds.

 

Ryan Fox, $7,400

• He screwed me at The Players, but not because of poor play, because he wd after lineup lock because of kidney stones.
• Prior to the wd Fox had great form with five straight Top 25s, including a T7 at Riviera.
• His recent stats are extremely good ranking 13th in SG:T2G, 27th in SG:P, and 6th in SG:TOT.
• He is long off the tee and finished T15 here last year.

 

Sudarshan Yellamaruju, $7,200

• Took the week off last week after his $900k windfall at The Players Championship the week before.
• Coming in hot with a T17 at PGA National, T37 at Puerto Rico, and T5 at TPC Sawgrass.
• 10th in SG:T2G in this field, 7th in SG:APP, and 16th in SG:P over his last 12 rounds.

 

Matti Schmid, $7,100

• I have had Matti in my core several times this year and he has been much better recently with a T9 at PGA National, T5 at Puerto Rico.
• He missed the cut here last year, but had a T21 two years ago.

 

Mackenzie Hughes, $7,100

• If you believe in course history like I do, it is tough to ignore Hughes consistent success here at Memorial Park (T7, T29, T16, T14, and 10th).
• It has not been a great year for Hughes, but he has not been a complete disaster missing only two cuts and finishing T28 at Phoenix, T34 at Pebble, and T23 at PGA National.
• His approach game and putter have been his strength most recently (38th in SG:APP and 27th in SG:P over his last 12 rounds)

 

Rasmus Neergaard-Peterson, $7,000

• Not any high upside finishes in 2026, but also has not missed a cut.
• He has some solid recent stats (37th in SG:T2G, 28th in SG:OTT, and 31st in SG:APP).
• He has not popped yet, but that does not mean he wont.  Nobody will own him, so just 15% would put us at 3X the field.

 

A few low cost/low owned guys I will own at 10% or less:

Brennan, $7,200

Potgieter, $7,200

Hodges, $7,000

Blanchet, $6,800