Jeff’s Hardcore Core- South African Open (European Package)

The first European Tour event of 2017 and it is certainly an interesting one from a GPP perspective this week.  There are two ways you can attack the GPPs this week:

1. Roster Rory McIlroy. The argument for rostering Rory is he is hands down the best talent in the field by a long shot.  It is hard to imagine Rory finishing outside the Top 5, even if he does not have his A game.  As we have seen with the European Tour, it is highly unpredictable and it feels like guys in the $6-$7k range have just as good of a chance to make the cut as guys in the $8k-$9k range.  So if that is true, why not roster Rory, who should almost guaranteed make the cut and almost for sure finish Top 5 and take your chances with some $7k guys.
2. Fade Rory McIlroy. Anytime you have a guy who is priced at $3,000 more than the next highest guy, who will be owned by the vast majority of the field, I see it as a fade opportunity.  The big problem that I have, is that I do not like the options that are available to pivot off of Rory. Over the past eight months of European Tour contests on DK, I have seen a ton of volatility and variance when it comes to guys making the cut even though they are highly priced.

You need to decide what side you are on this week and go with it.  I will discuss what I am doing below.

Best of luck this week my friends.

Jeff’s Hardcore Core:

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If the field had other options that I liked and would be willing to pivot off of, I would happily fade Rory this week.  Unfortunately the options are Andy Sullivan, Brandon Stone, Thomas Aiken, and Jaco Van Zyl, none of which who I really like.  So in the $3 contest I am going to roster Rory and take my chances with others in the low $7k range.  Or even stack him with a Richard Bland, who week in and week out outproduced his price last year.  If you are taking the stance that you are fading Rory, I really do not have a problem with it because a) he needs to finish Top 3 to even come close to value and b) maybe 60-70% of the field might own him. I have included several guys in the $8k range if you choose to fade Rory and go with a contrarian/balanced approach this week.  I also included some low-end flyer type guys in case you want to roster Rory.

Rory Mcilroy

Richard Bland

David Horsey

George Coetzee

Dean Burmester

Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Lucas Bjerregaard

Dylan Frittelli

Jbe Kruger

Thomas Detry

Alexander Bjork

Nino Bertasio

Madalitso Muthiya

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