Jeff’s Hardcore Core- Rocket Mortgage Classic

You could say that we are currently in the low point of the PGA Tour season, with this week’s Rocket Mortgage, next week’s 3M Open, and the following weeks John Deere, before we get back to a really strong field with The Open Championship.  That is not to say we do not have things to be excited about.  A couple new courses to explore in this week’s Detroit Golf club and next weeks TPC Twin Cities.  We will personally be out at TPC next week and give you first hand reports from the course on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Plus, dfs keeps rolling no matter how strong the field is week to week and we have $100k up top to the winner in the $5 GPP on DK this week.  Before we dive into this week’s Rocket Mortgage, let’s recap last weeks Travelers.

What went right? In my column last week, I said that I didn’t think I was going to be able to get to 2X overweight on Chez Reavie, because I was going to have 20-25% exposure. Well, fortunately for us his ownership came in lower than I expected (14% in the $5 and 11% in the $44). I ended up with about 24% in most of my GPPs so thankfully we were at just about 2X on the winner for only $8,400. Besides having the winner, others that provided us a boost last week included- Joaquin Niemann who finished T5 and we were able to get to 3X overweight at 15% exposure. Vaughn Taylor gave us a huge boost to 8% of our teams as he finished 4th for his lowly $6,700 price. We picked the right week for a Bryson DeChambeau rebound as he rewarded us with an 8th place finish. Patrick Reed gave us a ton of hope on Saturday as he catapulted all the way to tied for 3rd, but fell just as fast as he climbed back to a T30 finish. It was not an easy week to get 6/6 though the cut, despite there being 82 guys that made it to Saturday. I had about 12-15% of my rosters get 6/6 ( field average was between 6-8%). I obviously wish I had some Jason Day exposure as he ended up being on most of the winning GPP rosters and was one of the very few top tier priced guys to provide value.

What went wrong? I was kicking myself all over the place on Thursday, as Charlie Hoffman was kicking his golf ball all over the place. I never roster Charley Hoffman, and hardly never am I sorry that I don’t. His stats were trending positively and his course history was stellar, so I decided to have some exposure and dammit it bit me. He was terrible and it eliminated 20% of my rosters almost immediately out of the gate. Never again Charley. He wasn’t the only one who greatly disappointed last week and took down some otherwise very strong rosters. Apparently Jason Kokrak’s influential run is over as he has come crashing back down to earth lately. I wish I would have recognized it before last week and salvaged the 25% of my rosters he was on. Lucas Glover was another disappointment as was Sebastian Munoz, who was coming in hot. I made the decision to strategic fade both Paul Casey and Bubba Watson, based strictly on high ownership and what I felt was a reasonable chance they bomb and we gain an edge by avoiding them. Their course history was obviously great coming in, but I always like when there is a chance to eliminate a third of the field with one players bad performance. As it turned out, the Bubba Watson fade was great as he did next to nothing after making the cut. Paul Casey on the other hand would have been a positive to our core with his 98 Draftkings points. Still even with that, it did not eliminate our chances of wining a large field GPP and as a matter of fact the $5 winner did not have him. There are very few scenarios/results that can kill us by implementing these type of strategic fades and I will continue to do it in the future when we see guys are going to be so heavily owned.

Let’s dive into the Rocket Mortgage

Jeff’s Strategy & Core- Rocket Mortgage Classic
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