Jeff’s Hardcore Core- NFL Week 11

What a week 11 we have in store for us as we have a collection of the best match-ups we have seen all year.  Obviously, the Monday night shootout in LA, between the Rams and Chiefs will be the marquee game with a staggering 63 over/under.  But, we also have the Eagles vs Saints, Vikings vs Bears, and Packers vs Seahawks all intriguing match-ups with huge play-off implications.  Most should see a ton of points scored so they are intriguing from a DFS standpoint as well.  I will dive into my strategy for GPPs this week and of course my player core, but let’s recap last week first.

What went right?  We found some guys that were not very high owned and they were able to explode for us.  Aaron Jones was the best producer last week and I have talked ad nauseam about targeting the Dolphins run defense all season and for that reason I was all over Jones last week.  Also at the runningback positions, people were discouraged by Mark Ingram’s 3 DK points in week 9, but I loved the match-up last week against the Bengals and his price dropped.  It was a contrarian type play and it paid off for us huge.  Although not a 4X effort, Michael Thomas continued to be a monster this season and put up 27 DK points.  I was wrong on the game flow however as I thought the Bengals were going to be much better on offense and keep this game going back and forth.  Its crazy to say, but if that were the case the Saints could have scored even more points than the 51 they did.  I talked about targeting the Rams secondary  and specifically Marcus Peters who has been struggling huge.  We knew Tyler Locket was going to be in Peters coverage most of the game, which ended up being true and it paid off with a 19.5 pt/4X performance.  We of course were high on Austin Hooper who produced 21.6 DK points for $3,800, but even more important at the tight end position that was gross last week.  5X from a tight end any week feels like 10X from any other position.  The Bears defense paid off their $3,600 price, which was the highest on the slate last week. In a week of not great defense performances for DFS, I am glad we decided to have exposure to them.

What went wrong?  I felt so good about the wide receiver position last week, because of expected game flows (high scoring, back and forth, and even garbage time) and match-ups.  Unfortunately for me and those of you who played along that is the position that sunk so many of our rosters.  Josh Gordon, Tyler Boyd, Jarvis Landry, and Larry Fitzgerald all sucked.  I just don’t know how to explain all of them laying an egg.  Trying to avoid goose eggs at the tight end position, I paid up for Kelce with 15% of my rosters and that did not work.  Again, I missed the mark on the Bengals offense and thought they would be able to put up yards and points against the Saints, but that did not happen and Andy Dalton looked bad.  I will never understand how Marvin Lewis maintains that job in Cincy.  We have had our share of shit coaches here in Minnesota, but at least we are capable of firing them. (I am looking at you Mike Tice).  I felt good about the Jets defense at home against the hapless Bills offense, but I could not have been more wrong.  Overall, the most disappointing week of what has been a really great season.  You can’t win every week, but damn does it chap my ass when we don’t. You pretty much don’t want to be around me on Sunday nights like last week.  Anyway, onto this week, which I am confident we will get back to our winning ways and I will see a bunch of FGI logos up top on GPP leaderboards.

Good luck Team FGI!

Jeff’s Strategy & Core- NFL Week 11
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