Jeff’s Hardcore Core- NFL Week 1

Welcome Team FGI to my inaugural edition of my Hardcore Core: Football. I will my core throughout the week as more information comes out, as it always does in football.

This will be the 5th year I have played DFS football and have been net positive each of the last four football seasons. Although I do play cash games, I find myself excelling at GPPs, much like I do in DFS golf. Last year I was fortunate enough to win over $150,000 during the football season. In week 1 I took 2nd out of 113,818 entries in the main $20 GPP and 6th out of 1,436,510 entries in the $3 GPP.

Just as with DFS golf, there is a difference between cash games and GPPs. For one, we are looking for certain stability/consistency in cash games for both sports. In golf, it comes down to identifying guys who are more likely to make the cut than others, as opposed to guys who might have a better chance to win a tournament, but offer the same likelihood of a missed cut. We often refer to this as having a high floor as opposed to having a high ceiling. In football, that stability comes in the form of volume. If we know that a running back is going to get so many carries, or a quarterback or receiver will have a bunch of action due to game flow then they will have what we consider a high floor. Often times in cash games it is less important to have the most talented player than it is to have the most volume. You want to avoid a low floor, so most likely you do not want to be doing a lot of “stacking”. Stacking, meaning rostering a combination of players on the same team or in the same game in hopes that they compliment each other in scoring. For instance matching up a quarterback and his wide receiver or tight end so if they connect for big play, you will get benefit from both players.

In cash games, you will find a lot of your plays will be highly owned. When a starting running back gets injured and his back-up is priced low, you will see ownership of well over 50%, especially if he has a positive match-up. In GPPs of course we are looking for great values and positive match-ups, but we also need to find those diamonds in the rough that others will not gravitate toward. Being contrarian is not always easy, because often times it leaves us susceptible to a low floor. I have no problem personally accepting a total bust for a week, and possibly coming up with a big zero where it says “currently winning”, if it gives me an opportunity for a five or even six figure payday in a large field GPP. Often times you can go weeks without being profitable at all and months without hitting a decent size payday. You need to decide whether you have it in you to accept the large swings that come along with playing GPPs. If you do not think you can tolerate that, than please stick to cash games and just focus on growing your bankroll. Certainly there are plays in my column that I will also utilize in cash games, because there is value to be had. Just as with golf, you do not necessarily need to be contrarian everywhere on your roster. If a guy is a screaming play, go ahead and roster him and try and be contrarian other places on your roster.

Over the course of this football season I will incorporate DFS football strategies into my articles just as I do in my weekly golf columns. I will also share with you the players that I will be targeting in the GPPs that I play in that week. My goal is not to just provide you with “picks” but to help you develop strategies and ideas to make you a better GPP player for football.

I hope that you find my column beneficial throughout the season and it helps you become a better GPP player in football. Best of luck this week and all season long!

Jeff’s Strategy & Hardcore Core- NFL Week 1
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