Jeff’s Hardcore Core- John Deere Classic
In likely the weakest field we will see all year, the John Deere Classic kicks off on Thursday and serves as kind of an alternate event to the Scottish Open this week. Most top name players are either taking this week off or acclimating overseas getting ready for the Open Championship by playing in the Scottish Open. Contest sizes on Draftkings remain large despite the poor field, which is a very positive sign for the popularity of DFS golf. Best of luck this week Team FGI!
Jeff’s Strategy & Core- John Deere Classic
TPC Deere Run is one of the easiest courses the PGA sees all year. Last year the event did not take place, but years previous saw winning scores of -21, -27, -18, and -22. It is on the shorter side measuring 7,258 yards and is a Par 71. Just like last week, bogey free rounds will be abundant as well as under 70 in all four round bonuses. It is a Par 71 with slow, bentgrass greens. Fairways are wide and very easy to hit.
One thing I have found to be beneficial over the years for this tournament is targeting those guys who rank highly in greens in regulation. It is a statistical category that I rarely place much importance on anymore, at least since we started focusing on strokes gained approach and proximity. This event however, that stat has been huge and I think you should factor it in. I have included the following examples a few times in my columns over the years, but it really demonstrates a significant trend.
- Chad Campbell, a mediocre player on tour carved up TPC Deere run for years, even though it was one of the few places he had consistent success over his career. Look at where he ranked in greens in regulation for the season on the PGA Tour for many of the years he had success here- 2013-34th, 2014- 1st, 2015-35th, 2016-33rd, 2017-15th, 2018-120th. The funny thing is his Strokes gained approach numbers are not nearly as impressive. Campbell is a greens in regulation guy and he has had a crazy amount of success here, especially considering the lack of success he has had most everywhere else.
- Same thing with Johnson Wagner. An unexplainable amount of success at TPC Deere Run as compared to most everywhere else. Here is where he ranked on the PGA Tour for the season in greens in regulation- 2015- 26th, 2016-13th, 2017-55th, 2018-69th, 2019-2nd. Again, it is crazy because his strokes gained approach generally suck.
- Just look at leaderboards over the last 5-10 years and see how those players finished in the greens in regulation category for the year. You will find a ton of mediocre at best players who had really nice weeks at TPC Deere Run and a good share of the time their best statistical category for the year was greens in regulation. Sam Ryder finished runner-up in this event in 2019, also was 2nd on tour in GIR and then T18 in 2019 and was 54th. Streelman took T7 here in 2018 and finished 4th in GIR. Molinari runner-up finished 16th. How about in 2017- no counts like JJ Henry took T10 and Cameron Percy took T12 finished 11th and 7th respectively in GIR for the season.
I can continue to site examples of this commonality, but I think you get the point. It is the reason you see it in my FGI Model this week. I would also recommend just clicking on the GIR column heading in the FGI Model to see who ranks best to worst. Look at the GIR statistical category for the season this year, and go to the drop down Fairways/Greens on the rolling stats tool and click on the column heading GIR% to sort from best to worst over recent time periods.
In addition to the greens in regulation stat, I will be again targeting guys who have success on easy courses. I did this last week as well and you can do this by going to the course comp tool and just clicking the “easy” scoring for filters and see what names it produces. As far as the courses I will specifically be targeting to use in the course comp tool, they include:
#1 TPC Twin Cities
#2 Keene Trace
#3 Nine Bridges
#4 TPC Summerlin
#5 Old White
#6 Conway Farms
Here is how my FGI Model sets up this week: 48% Current Form, 30% Key Stats, 10% Vegas, and 12% Course History. Stats- 20% SG:T2G, 10% SG:APP, 25% Putting, 10% GIR, 10% PROX, 20% BOB%, 5% SCRAM.
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Brian Harman likely has the best combination of current form and course history of anybody in the field this week. A T10 here in 2017 to go along with three other Top 25 finishes, one being a win here in 2014. He has missed only one cut in 2021 (PGA Championship), and has nine Top 20 finishes in just 14 events played. He does not have a win yet this year, but this could be a great time for one with no top studs in the field this week. Over his last 16 rounds he ranks 7th in SG:T2G, 35th in SG:APP, and 16th in SG:P. I will use Harman in my 20 team lineup builds and also my 150 team builds, but likely not in my 5-man tournaments, because of his price. 30% exposure.
I like getting in on Russell Henley when he is on one of his hot streaks and he has been really good lately with a T13 at the US Open and T19 at Travelers. Over his last 12 rounds played he ranks 11th in SG:T2G and 1st in SG:APP. He finished T27 here in 2014 and runner-up in 2019. Typically I like Henley more on smaller, tighter courses, where his accuracy can really shine, but the options up top just are sparse this week and I think his price is reasonable. 30%
Wow did Kevin Streelman screw me with his second round meltdown at Travelers. At one point he was -5 in that tournament and near the lead, so to miss the cut was a horrible collapse. If we can overlook one round then we can see his T15 at Torrey, T13 at Memorial, T20 at Colonial, and T8 at Kiawah were his finishes before that. Over his last 16 rounds he ranks 8th in SG:T2G, 16th in SG:APP, and 35th in SG:P, so a real solid overall game. He has a couple high finishes at TPC Deere Run with a T8 in 2012 and T7 in 2018. 30%
Not a huge breakout performance for Aaron Wise yet in 2021 , but that could change this week. Wise has been close on several occasions with a T13 at Honda, T9 at Wells Fargo, and T9 at Memorial. Plus he has super consistent lately with only one missed cut in his last nine events played. Wise kills greens in regulation ranking 3rd on tour in 2020 and 10th currently in 2021. He is a bomber who can score. His limited tournament history here (mc in 2018 and T16 in 2016) should not attract many owners. I own Wise on my betting card this week as well as I feel like his time is close.
I am kicking myself for not owning Seamus Power in my core last week and being significantly overweight. I ended up using him as a tertiary option in my large lineup builds, and in my 5-man FGWC qualifier, but it would have been nice to have a bunch of exposure in the large field GPPs and take advantage of his T8 finish. That now makes a T9, T19, T19, and T8 finish in his last four events played. In that time he ranks 1st in GIR, 1st in SG:T2G, 3rd in SG:APP., 4th in SG:ATG, and 13th in SG:P. Simply fantastic in all phases of the game. In his three appearances here he has a T61, T16, and T25 finishes. It feels gross to pay $9k for Seamus Power, but his recent play warrants it in this field.
Maverick McNealy is coming in off a finishes of T20 at Colonial, T30 at Travelers, and T21 last week in Detroit. Over those 12 rounds he ranks 2nd in GIR, 16th in SG:T2G, 3rd in SG:OTT, and 27th in SG:P. McNealy is a better putter on bentgrass (.492 vs .217) and has been racking up birdies (9th in birdies made over those 12 rounds), which came on easy courses, which is what we have this week. I like the momentum he brings coming into this week. 28%
The Zach Johnson Open this week at TPC Deere Run, ZJ has dominated here for more than a decade with a whopping six Top 5 finishes in that time. This season has been a bumpy one for ZJ, and I rarely if ever own him anymore, but this is one course that I make an exception. I don’t love his approach numbers, but his short game remains solid ranking 22nd in SG:ATG and 22nd in SG:P over his last several events. I am going to tread a little lightly here and won’t get to a full 2X this week.
I am scratching my head a bit this week because of Hank Lebioda’s odds and DK price ($8,400). He has now made six straight cuts and not only that he has a T13 and T17 in that stretch along with a T5 and T4 the last two weeks. His stats are tremendous (14th in SG:T2G and 2nd in SG:P) over his last 16 rounds. He also ranks 4th in GIR over that time period. Considering the field strength and how well Lebioda has been playing, this is a bargain. This also means high ownership as well (likely upwards of 20%). I am not willing to own him on nearly half my rosters, so I will be 1.5X at about 30-32% exposure.
Johnny Vegas has been one of the more consistent players on tour this season in terms of cut-making, which is weird to say. He has now made six straight and 12 out of his last 13. In that time he also has a runner-up finish in Puerto Rico, a T18 at Puntacana, a T9 at Byron Nelson, and runner-up at Palmetto. He has made the cut here a couple of times in the past 5 years finishing T44 in 2015 and T37 in 2019. Over his last 24 rounds he ranks 2nd in this field in SG:T2G. He is long off the tee (13th in DD this season on tour), and capable of scoring in bunches. 26%
It feels like we keep waiting for the Doug Ghim breakout and I am thinking this has the potential to be the week. I had high hopes for Ghim coming into this season and featured him in my Crystal Ball Article. He has not been bad at all, but outside of a 5th place at The American Express early in the season, we haven’t seen any real high finishes, which I was thinking he had the potential for. His tee to green game certainly has not been the problem as he ranks 2nd in SG:T2G, 3rd in SG:APP, and 25th in SG:ATG in his last 36 rounds. The trouble comes on the greens with his putter, where he ranks 159th in the PGA Tour this season. A couple promising things however include that he putts slightly better on bentgrass and has putted better recently (66th in SG:P) in this field over his last 12 rounds and most of the rounds have come on slower greens like this week. If Ghim can putt just average, his tee to green game is good enough to make him compete. 20%
It has been a really solid season for Kyle Stanley having missed only four cuts in 16 events played and six straight coming into this week. Highlights include a T18 at Farmers, T14 at Valero, and T8 at Charles Schwab. It has been a nice run for Stanley at John Deere as well with a runner-up finish in 2011 and three Top 25 finishes in the past five years. Not surprisingly, Stanley ranks 16th in GIR over his last 48 rounds and 10th over his last 16. He was 2nd place in that category on the entire PGA Tour in 2020. Stanley is .156 strokes better putting on bentgrass. For the price, he is a favorite play of mine this week. 24%
6th in SG:P in 2018, 10th in SG:P in 2019, and 24th in SG:P in 2020, Beau Hossler is a great putter. What I find interesting is he is way down at 76th in SG:P in this field over his last 36 rounds played. So putting has not been good, however lately it has been closer to normal (32nd in SG:P over his last 8 rounds). What has been fantastic lately is his tee to green game (1st in SG:T2G, 8th in SG:OTT, 1st in GIR, and 19th in SG:APP) over his last 12 rounds. Thus he has a T19, T10, and T25 in his last three starts. I am liking riding the momentum into this week and if his elite putting returns to match the ball striking and he putts .257 strokes better on bentgrass, then we could get a big finish.
Throughout his career Patrick Rodgers has been an exceptional putter (2018-9th in SG:P, 2019-22nd, and 2020- 11th). This season he ranks 117th on the PGA Tour. It has been his tee to green game, specifically the approach game that has given him some problems. Lately, however that has flipped as he has been exceptional tee to green (16th in SG”T2G, 9th in SG:OTT, 5th in GIR, and 36th in SG:APP over his last 16 rounds). He has now made four straight cuts and six out of his past eight. He has also had some success at TPC Deere run finishing T15 in 2013, T27 in 2016, and runner-up in 2017. Not a bad price considering how inflated most players prices are this week. 20%.
No history at TPC Deere Run to work off of for Matthew NeSmith, but this should be a terrific spot for him. NeSmith has been very good on easy scoring courses gaining .922 strokes on the field in 14 events (course comp-easy difficulty scoring). NeSmith ranks 3rd on the PGA tour in GIR this season and was 22nd in 2020. He has had some struggles recently missing three cuts in his last five events after being on a nice five straight made cut steak. He did however make the cut last week at Detroit GC and gained strokes from tee to green in three of the four rounds. He is .122 strokes better putting on bentgrass.
Not a ton of fantastic options in the $6k range this week, but Roger Sloan is one of those I like most. A T21 last week at Rocket Mortgage made four cuts made in his last five. Over his last 24 rounds he ranks 31st in SG”T2G, 32nd in SG:APP, and 65th in SG:P. Sloan has also had some success here in his two appearances finishing T18 in 2015 and T10 in 2019. He is a much better putter on bentgrass (.223 vs -.195) and that is a large sample size. Likely not that highly owned either, 14%.
Joseph Bramlett has missed his last two cuts and three out of his last four, but I am going to own a few shares this week. He has had several decent finishes this year with a T18 at Farmers, T13 at Puntacana, T7 at Byron Nelson, and T25 at Palmetto. He has had more success putting on bentgrass greens (.523) although it is a smaller sample size and that is where he has struggled (107th in SG:P over his last 16 rounds. From tee to green he has been great ranking 12th in SG:T2G. Nobody is going to own him, so we can be double the field at 10% or even lower.
Harman $10,400
Henley $9,900
Streelman $9,700
Wise $9,200
Power $9,000
McNealy $8,800
Z Johnson $8,500
Lebioda $8,400
Vegas $8,000
Ghim $8,000
Stanley $7,900
Hossler $7,800
Rodgers $7,400
NeSmith $7,200
Sloan $6,900
Bramlett $6,600
A few other guys I will own:
Stallings $7,400
Percy $6,700
Roach $6,600
Teater $6,300
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