Jeff’s Hardcore Core- Farmers Insurance Open
Another good week for FGI last week as there were a lot of FGI logos atop GPP leader boards. The biggest scores came from dak1616 who won just about everything, including $100,000 by winning the big $20 GPP on Draftkings. Congrats to dak1616 for the monster win!
The California swing continues this week at Torrey Pines for the Farmers Insurance Open. It is hard to believe that Jon Rahm, who is coming off of two straight wins, gets the course that he has performed the best at through his career. A win at the Farmers in 2017 and a win at the US Open, combined with Top 7 finishes in each of the last four years for this event. We have been saying each week that Draftkings has to increase the salary of the top tier and they finally listened and did that this week. We will see if it was the fact that Rahm is a 4-1 favorite or if it will continue the rest of the year.
Zach is going to be at Torrey this week, so if you are there, be sure to hit him up and make him buy you a cocktail!
Good luck this week my friends!
Jeff’s Strategy & Core- Farmers Insurance Open-
Just like last week, there is a multi-course rotation, but this time just two courses (Torrey Pines South and Torrey Pines North). They will play both of the courses the first two days, then a standard Top 65 and ties cut, before playing the South course twice over the weekend. There is always a dramatic difference in difficulty between the North and South course with the North playing much easier, while the South course playing more like a U.S Open type in difficulty. Stacking for Showdown Slates can certainly be done this week to try and gain an edge, just as we did last week with the American Express.
Three of the four rounds will be played on the South course, so I will be targeting players that are best suited for that course as opposed to the North Course, as they are very different. The South course is a beast at over 7,700 yards with nasty, thick rough. It generally plays like a major style course as it was in 2021 when the U.S Open was played there. The North course is 7,200 yards and both courses are Par 72s. The South Course has POA annua greens (North has bentgrass). Because of the massive distance of the South course, I place a lot of extra emphasis on bombers. We have seen some shorter hitters succeed over the years (Snedeker and Horschel to name a couple), but they are really few and far between. Generally, we see the top players in the world dominate this event because of the difficult layout (narrow fairways, long rough, and fast greens). One stat that I like to use for events like this and majors is BOW%. Rounds become a grind and scoring is at a premium. Those players who can avoid the bogeys and grind out par can stay in the mix.
Here is what my inputs will be into the FGI Model this week: 45% Current Form, 30% Key Stats, 10% Vegas Odds, and 15% Course History. Current Form- 10% Last 52, 50% Last 13, 25% Last 2, and 15% Last 1. Key Stats- 20% SG:T2G, 10% SG:APP, 20% SG:P, 10% DD, 5% Prox, 5% Par 5, 10% BOB% 10% BOW%, and 10% SCRAM.
When using our course comparison tool, I like the following courses-
- Riviera CC (Genesis)- It is played early in the year in California, fast, POA greens, narrow fairways with long rough. Scoring is difficult and is a longer course compared to the average on tour. This is my favorite comp of the week.
- Quail Hollow (Wells Fargo)- Bermuda greens, but they are fast and the course is really long (7,600 yards), has narrow fairways with long rough, and difficult scoring conditions.
- Silverado (Fortinet)- POA Greens, narrow fairways, medium rough.
- Bethpage Black (PGA Championship). Long beast of a course with long rough, POA greens and very difficult. I like looking at major tournament host courses overall. For the most part, those guys who consistently do well at the PGA Championship and US Open will be a good fit for Torrey.
A couple items to point out-
- The event starts on Wednesday this week, so be sure you have your lineups locked and loaded in time. Ending on Saturday is probably a good idea to avoid going head to head with the NFL on Sunday.
- Looking at the forecast, wind could become an issue. We will know more on Tuesday night and I will outline the most recent forecast in my update email. We likely won’t be stacking lineups for the classic contests, because the field will be split between the two courses. The argument can be made both ways, do you want your guys on the easier course when it is windy or the harder course. I can hear both arguments, but the key is that wind brings unpredictability. That is one of the reasons I am try to be a bit more contrarian with some picks this week. Not all picks, just some. There are a few extremely talented players going to be ignored this week.
Here are the categories I will use in my analysis of players each week, which will determine my player core for GPPs.
Course History – How the player has performed on the course being played that week.
Current Form – Results of the player leading up to the current event.
Course Comparisons- How the player ranks in our Course Comparison Tool using the courses I select that week.
Price Value (Odds vs Pricing) – Is the player significantly + / – in our Odds vs Pricing Tool
Putting Splits – Is the player + / – in our Putting Splits Tool
Course Fit – Are the players strengths/weaknesses a good fit stylistically for the course being played
Leverage on the field (is this a more contrarian play) – Will this player be owned by a lesser amount of the field.
My Feel – Using 10+ years of experience in the game of DFS golf, do I feel like this is a good play.
Jon Rahm, $11,600
Course History – Positive
Current Form – Positive
Course Comparisons- Positive
Price Value (Odds vs Pricing) – Neutral
Putting Splits – Positive
Course Fit – Positive
Leverage on the field (is this a contrarian play) – Negative
My Feel – Positive
Score- 22.5
Notes- On a rampage, thankfully we have had a large chunk of exposure to him in both of his wins. It will be hard to gain a ton of leverage on the field this week, but we should get to 1.5X.
My Exposure % – 40-50%
Will Zalatoris, $9,700
Course History – Positive
Current Form – Neutral
Course Comparisons- Positive
Price Value (Odds vs Pricing) – Neutral
Putting Splits – Positive
Course Fit – Positive
Leverage on the field (is this a contrarian play) – Neutral
My Feel – Positive
Score- 21
Notes- Built for major-type courses, like Torrey. Elite ball striking and a good track record the last two years.
My Exposure % – 30-35%
Justin Thomas, $9,400
Course History – Neutral
Current Form – Neutral
Course Comparisons- Positive
Price Value (Odds vs Pricing) – Neutral
Putting Splits – Positive
Course Fit – Positive
Leverage on the field (is this a contrarian play) – Positive
My Feel – Positive
Score- 19.5
Notes- Is going to be overlooked and he thrives on tough courses and in major style events.
My Exposure % – 30-35
Max Homa, $9,100
Course History – Neutral
Current Form – Positive
Course Comparisons- Positive
Price Value (Odds vs Pricing) – Neutral
Putting Splits – Positive
Course Fit – Positive
Leverage on the field (is this a contrarian play) – Negative
My Feel – Positive
Score- 20
Notes- Everything lines up for a guy in terrific form and has made the leap to Top 20 in the world.
My Exposure % – 25-30%
Hideki Matsuyama, $9,000
Course History – Positive
Current Form – Negative
Course Comparisons- Positive
Price Value (Odds vs Pricing) – Neutral
Putting Splits – Positive
Course Fit – Positive
Leverage on the field (is this a contrarian play) – Positive
My Feel – Neutral
Score- 18
Notes- Will be ignored completely and we can easily get to 2X the field without a ton of risk. Has played well at Torrey over his career and has the elite ball striking required.
My Exposure % – 18-22%
Maverick McNealy, $8,600
Course History – Positive
Current Form – Positive
Course Comparisons- Positive
Price Value (Odds vs Pricing) – Neutral
Putting Splits – Positive
Course Fit – Positive
Leverage on the field (is this a contrarian play) – Positive
My Feel – Positive
Score- 24.5
Notes- Love Mav on the West Coast and is in good form coming in.
My Exposure % – 30-34%
JJ Spaun, $8,500
Course History – Positive
Current Form – Positive
Course Comparisons- Negative
Price Value (Odds vs Pricing) – Neutral
Putting Splits – Neutral
Course Fit – Positive
Leverage on the field (is this a contrarian play) – Neutral
My Feel – Positive
Score- 19
Notes-
My Exposure % – 20-24%
Cameron Davis, $8,400
Course History – Positive
Current Form – Positive
Course Comparisons- Neutral
Price Value (Odds vs Pricing) – Neutral
Putting Splits – Neutral
Course Fit – Positive
Leverage on the field (is this a contrarian play) – Positive
My Feel – Positive
Score- 21.5
Notes- Has the power and experience at Torrey
My Exposure % – 24-26%
Justin Rose, $8,100
Course History – Positive
Current Form – Neutral
Course Comparisons- Positive
Price Value (Odds vs Pricing) – Neutral
Putting Splits – Neutral
Course Fit – Positive
Leverage on the field (is this a contrarian play) – Negative
My Feel – Positive
Score- 18.5
Notes-
My Exposure % – 22-24%
Hayden Buckley, $8,000
Course History – Neutral
Current Form – Positive
Course Comparisons- Neutral
Price Value (Odds vs Pricing) – Neutral
Putting Splits – Neutral
Course Fit – Positive
Leverage on the field (is this a contrarian play) – Neutral
My Feel – Positive
Score- 18
Notes-
My Exposure % – 20-24%
Taylor Pendrith, $7,900
Course History – Neutral
Current Form – Neutral
Course Comparisons- Negative
Price Value (Odds vs Pricing) – Neutral
Putting Splits – Negative
Course Fit – Positive
Leverage on the field (is this a contrarian play) – Positive
My Feel – Positive
Score- 13.5
Notes- Chalk up the mc last week to rust (hopefully). Torrey is a good course for him.
My Exposure % – 15-20%
Wyndham Clark, $7,900
Course History – Neutral
Current Form – Positive
Course Comparisons- Positive
Price Value (Odds vs Pricing) – Neutral
Putting Splits – Positive
Course Fit – Positive
Leverage on the field (is this a contrarian play) – Positive
My Feel – Positive
Score- 22
Notes- Has the type of style that can win at Torrey and his putter can get red hot.
My Exposure % – 20-24%
Alex Smalley, $7,700
Course History – Neutral
Current Form – Positive
Course Comparisons- Neutral
Price Value (Odds vs Pricing) – Neutral
Putting Splits – Neutral
Course Fit – Neutral
Leverage on the field (is this a contrarian play) – Positive
My Feel – Neutral
Score- 22
Notes-
My Exposure % – 18-22%
Thomas Detry, $7,600
Course History – Neutral
Current Form – Positive
Course Comparisons- Neutral
Price Value (Odds vs Pricing) – Neutral
Putting Splits – Neutral
Course Fit – Neutral
Leverage on the field (is this a contrarian play) – Neutral
My Feel – Positive
Score- 16.5
Notes-
My Exposure % – 18-22%
Dean Burmester, $7,500
Course History – Neutral
Current Form – Neutral
Course Comparisons- Neutral
Price Value (Odds vs Pricing) – Negative
Putting Splits – Neutral
Course Fit – Positive
Leverage on the field (is this a contrarian play) – Positive
My Feel – Neutral
Score- 14.5
Notes-
My Exposure % – 10-14%
Will Gordon, $7,400
Course History – Neutral
Current Form – Positive
Course Comparisons- Neutral
Price Value (Odds vs Pricing) – Neutral
Putting Splits – Positive
Course Fit – Neutral
Leverage on the field (is this a contrarian play) – Positive
My Feel – Neutral
Score- 17.5
Notes-
My Exposure % – 18-20%
Patrick Rodgers, $7,300
Course History – Neutral
Current Form – Positive
Course Comparisons- Positive
Price Value (Odds vs Pricing) – Positive
Putting Splits – Positive
Course Fit – Neutral
Leverage on the field (is this a contrarian play) – Neutral
My Feel – Neutral
Score- 18.5
Notes-
My Exposure % – 16-20%
Brendan Steele, $7,300
Course History – Neutral
Current Form – Neutral
Course Comparisons- Positive
Price Value (Odds vs Pricing) – Neutral
Putting Splits – Neutral
Course Fit – Neutral
Leverage on the field (is this a contrarian play) – Positive
My Feel – Neutral
Score- 15
Notes-
My Exposure % – 15-18%
Ben Griffin, $7,300
Course History – Neutral
Current Form – Positive
Course Comparisons- Neutral
Price Value (Odds vs Pricing) – Negative
Putting Splits – Neutral
Course Fit – Neutral
Leverage on the field (is this a contrarian play) – Neutral
My Feel – Neutral
Score- 14.5
Notes-
My Exposure % -13-16%
Matthew NeSmith, $7,100
Course History – Positive
Current Form – Negative
Course Comparisons- Positive
Price Value (Odds vs Pricing) – Positive
Putting Splits – Neutral
Course Fit – Positive
Leverage on the field (is this a contrarian play) – Positive
My Feel – Neutral
Score- 17
Notes-
My Exposure % – 15-18%
Ben Taylor, $7,100
Course History – Neutral
Current Form – Positive
Course Comparisons- Neutral
Price Value (Odds vs Pricing) – Neutral
Putting Splits – Neutral
Course Fit – Neutral
Leverage on the field (is this a contrarian play) – Neutral
My Feel – Neutral
Score- 13.5
Notes-
My Exposure % – 15-18%
Kevin Streelman, $6,800
Course History – Positive
Current Form – Negative
Course Comparisons- Positive
Price Value (Odds vs Pricing) – Neutral
Putting Splits – Positive
Course Fit – Positive
Leverage on the field (is this a contrarian play) – Neutral
My Feel – Neutral
Score- 17
Notes-
My Exposure % – 12-14%
Eric Cole, $6,700
Course History – Neutral
Current Form – Positive
Course Comparisons- Neutral
Price Value (Odds vs Pricing) – Negative
Putting Splits – Neutral
Course Fit – Neutral
Leverage on the field (is this a contrarian play) – Positive
My Feel – Neutral
Score- 15.5
Notes-
My Exposure % – 6-9%
Tyson Alexander, $6,500
Course History – Neutral
Current Form – Positive
Course Comparisons- Neutral
Price Value (Odds vs Pricing) – Negative
Putting Splits – Neutral
Course Fit – Neutral
Leverage on the field (is this a contrarian play) – Positive
My Feel – Neutral
Score- 15.5
Notes-
My Exposure % – 6-9%
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