Jeff’s Hardcore Core- Farmers Insurance Open

We now have three events in the books for 2018, and for the second time in three weeks we have a Top 5 player in the world come away victorious.  Jon Rahm was the model of consistency for four days at Career Builder and solidified the fact that he is one of the very best in the world today.  We now come into a stretch of golf that is very exciting starting with the Farmers this week and then the Waste Management Phoenix Open the following week.  Tiger’s return this week is going to bring more people than ever into playing DFS golf and we need to take advantage of it.

I will talk about our strategy and core for The Farmers as I always do, but this week I am going to do something a little different for Team FGI. It is something that I believe is extremely important and critical to your success in GPPs.  I documented and analyzed the lineups of one the best players in DFS golf from last week to help re-enforce what we at FGI have been preaching about GPP strategy for the last three years.

Before I do that however let’s review last week’s core for the Career Builder Challenge.  Anytime you head into a week knowing it is going to be a scoring fest, there is a level of unpredictability.  Shooting 7 under par in the first three days of the event and not being in the Top 70 players and missing the cut is crazy, but exactly what we had last week.  Basically anybody who shot even par on any of the days, which is not usually a disaster, had virtually no chance to recover and play on Sunday.  This is the reason we saw a bit of a mish-mosh leaderboard outside of Jon Rahm.  Guys in my core like Webb Simpson (T36), Steele (T20), Howell (T20), Reavie (T36), Cook (T14), Cauley (T14), Streelman (T29), Glover (T29) who I was really high on all had solid weeks, but just could not keep up with the super low scoring that you needed to have to post Top 10s and get us in contention in GPPs.  Kevin Chapell was one of the few guys who could overcome a poor round, because he absolutely killed it the other three rounds and finished T6.  I thought he was the best value on the board last week when you simply compare talent to price.  It was a very similar situation to Jason Dufner the week before.  I have no idea how Dratkings misses these so badly in their pricing model, but we need to hammer these plays in cash games for certain, and despite heavy ownership in GPPs we also need to consider them.   The big misses last week were J.J Spaun, Brandt Snedeker, Bill Haas, and Brian Stuard all of who did not make it to Sunday.  As Snedeker picked up steam in the industry throughout the week (as I detailed in my Wednesday email) he became a very viable fade option.  There was uncertainty surrounding him because he has not played much golf in the last seven months and if he was going to garner a ton of ownership in a wide open tournament where you need to score all four days to compete, I think if you ended up fading him you made a wise move.  The guys who I mentioned as being good low ownership, tertiary type plays actually ended up working out the best.  John Huh (T3), Scott Piercy (T6), and Aaron Wise (T17) all ended up posting very nice finishes and were very cheap, although Piercy did end up with some ownership after being talked about in the industry throughout the week a bit.

The most success that I had last week was with weekend golf.  I hope you read my email on Friday night and were able to act on it.  I saw a phenominal opportunity that we do not often have in weekend golf with some players playing much easier courses on Saturday than others.  Usually everybody is beyond the cut and playing the same course, but because of the funky set up last week, we had a chance to select players that could post a big round on Saturday and put us ahead of our competition.  I loaded up on guys (who I mentioned in my email) who had big Saturdays on the easier courses (LQ & Nick) and that was enough to easily win cash games and contend and even win weekend GPPs.  I saw a ton of FGI logos atop the leaderboards for weekend golf and really glad we could capitalize on an opportunity like that.

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