Jeff’s Hardcore Core- Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches

Now that we have said goodbye to California and the West Coast swing, we say hello to the Florida swing and this week the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches.  Formerly known as the Honda Classic, the important part is that it is still being played and the very fun PGA National.  I always find the transition interesting between the West Coast and Florida, and going from primarily POA putting surfaces to bermuda.  PGA National has been a difficult test in the past, although last year it played quite a bit easier with Joe Highsmith winning at -19 and eight guys scoring at -15 or better.  In the past -15 would generally be good enough to win.  It still features a bunch of blow-up holes that bring double bogey into play.

Best of luck this week my friends.

Jeff’s Strategy & Core- Coginizant Classic in the Palm Beaches

PGA National has best been described as a mine field.  In the past it has ranked as one of the most difficult courses on tour with narrow fairways, speedy TiffEagle bermuda greens (12 on the stimpmeter), and tons of water hazards.  As a matter of fact water is in play on 15 holes.  Double bogey or worse is in play on most holes and if there is any wind it gets hairy.  As I talked about before Highsmith won last year at -19 , but before that here are the winning scores: -17, -14, -10, -12.  The average green size is 7,000 square feet, which is very similar to a couple of courses we have seen thus far this year (TPC Scottsdale and PGA West for the AMEX).

The course is 7,223 yards and is a par 71.  It is a Tom and George Fazio design, but reworked by Jack Nicklaus in 1990 and 2014.  It features one of the most famous three hole stretches in golf (15-17) referred to as the Bear Trap.  It is extremely important to be accurate both off the tee and into greens, avoid too many blow-up holes, and score on the par 5s (because there is not a ton of scoring to be had elsewhere).  Fairways and rough are composed of perennial ryegrass overseed and rough will be at 3”.

I talk about this every year, but with the level of difficulty and massive amount of trouble, there is going to be that much more variance and unpredictability than even a normal week on the PGA Tour. Just one glance at the tournament history page and you will see the inconsistency throughout the years for the players.  Most everybody who have the best track records at PGA National over the past ten years, also have some really poor finishes mixed in. I always play a contrarian style in GPPS, but that is the case even more so this week.  EMBRACE THE VOLATILITY THIS WEEK.

Although current form is one of the main aspects I analyze coming into a week, we need to remember that the type of golf this week is far different than what we have seen the last several weeks on the west coast.  The courses are much different, the grass is obviously different, the field strength is different, and the weather will be different.  If we know a guy typically plays the Florida swing well, I would not hesitate to own him even if he hasn’t shown much the past month on the West Coast.

Comparison courses I will be using in our course comp tool this week:

#1 Bay Hill

#2 Innisbrook

#3 East Lake

#4 TPC Sawgrass

#5 TPC Scottsdale

#6 Country Club of Jackson

PGA National is a really difficult course and We need to give a bump to guys who play well on difficult courses.  We can do this on the course comp tool. Copperhead and East Lake would for sure be great for this type of search.  You could also throw in Colonial as a short, tough course, or even Quail Hollow, although it is quite a bit longer.

My FGI Model- 45% Current Form, 30% Key Stats, 12% Vegas, and 13% Course History. For stats- 20% SG:T2G, 5% SG:OTT, 15% SG:APP, 20% SG:P, 5% DA, 5% PROX, 10% PAR 5, 7% BOB, 8% BOW, and 5% SCRAM.

I do own Lowry and Gerard up top, but much can be said for building more balanced lineups this week, because Lowry and Gerard are going to see massive ownership with all the WDs in the top tier.  I like the options in the low $9k and $8k range and think they will have some reduced ownership given the lineup builds most folks will gravitate toward this week given the situation.

 

Shane Lowry, $9,900

• The only guy left in the field above $9,500, which sucks because now he will get a ton more ownership than he would have before.  It is just too easy to build a quality roster with him, so I am not going to fade him.
• PGA National is a place he has thrived over his career having never missed the cut in eight appearances and registering a T11, T4, T5, and runner-up the last four years.
• Ranks high on my course comp model, and a guy I always target once the Florida swing starts.

 

Ryan Gerard, $9,700

• Solid play so far this year with a couple of runner-ups (Sony and AMEX), a T11 at Farmers and a T28 last week.
• In his two appearances at PGA National he has finished 4th in 2023 and T25 last year.
• Puts .289 strokes better on bermuda than other turf and you can easily stack him with Lowry or a Hojgaard.

 

Rasmus Hojgaard, $9,500 and Nicolai Hojgaard, $9,400

• These guys will not doubt be popular, but for good reason.  Nicolai ranks 1st in SG:T2G, 12th in SG:APP, 19th in SG:P, and 2nd in SG:TOT over his last 12 rounds while Rasmus ranks19th in SG:T2G, 38th in SG:APP, 14th in SG:P, and 5th in SG:TOT.
• Nicolai finished T18 here last year after a mc in 2022.  Rasmus only has one appearance in 2024 and mc.
• Both gain strokes on the field on bermuda grass.
• Both have come out in 2026 and played strong, especially Nicolai who has two Top 5s already.

 

Michael Thorbjornsen, $9,200

• I am betting on sheer talent here as this kid is legit.  Mixed results so far this year with a mc at AMEX and T78 at Pebble, but had a T18 at Farmers and T3 at the most similar course to PGA National in TPC Scottsdale.
• In his 2026 rounds he ranks 32nd in SG:T2G and 64th in SG:APP.  Not good has been his putter, but he does putt better on bermuda.
• High upside/low downside play here.

 

Daniel Berger, $8,900

• Some might write him off because of his last two duds, but you need to separate the West Coast from the Florida swing.  Berger is a Southern guy.
• His only rounds on bermuda this year came at Sony where he finished T6 and the course most similar to PGA National was TPC Scottsdale where he finished T16, his two best finishes this year.
• This is one play where you need to separate what we have seen in California from what he is capable of in Florida.

 

Will Zalatoris, $8,400

• I might not like him much in a loaded field, but in this field there is no reason he cannot compete.  We have only seen him twice this year as he finished T18 at AMEX then blew up in his 2nd round at Torrey shooting 75 after an opening round 68.
• Never played PGA National, but gains .751 strokes on comp courses.
• If the course plays tough like it has in the past, I really like Zalatoris that much more.

 

Alex Smalley, $8,300

• Playing better his last two appearances (T35 in Phoenix and T19 at Pebble).
• Ranks 29th in SG:T2G, 18th in SG:OTT, and 27th in SG:TOT so far this year
• Finished T18 here last year

 

Mac Meissner, $8,000

• Here is a play I think gets overlooked because of the price and also he has not put up any great finishes yet this year.
• He has not missed a cut this year and finished T18 at comp course TPC Scottsdale.
• He ranks really high on my course comp model as well as on turf splits tool gaining .314 strokes on bermuda while losing .33 strokes on other turf.
• This will serve as a contrarian play for me and we can be at least 2X the field at only 30%

 

Ricky Castillo, $7,500

• We will see if 30-40th place finishes in better fields translates to a Top 20 in this field for Castillo (T31 at Sony, T44 at AMEX, and T43 at Farmers)
• Gains .229 strokes on bermuda vs other turf and gains .912 total strokes on comp course albeit a small sample size.
• I really like this play as he is a young kid (24) who has the opportunity to break through in an easier field.

 

John Parry, $7,500

• Not bad so far this year for the Englishman having not missed a cut and posting a T19 in Hawaii and T35 in Phoenix
• 25th in SG:APP, 19th in SG:P, and 22nd in SG:TOT over his 2026 rounds.
• Super small sample size but has putted much better on bermuda than other turf (+.98 strokes)

 

Tom Kim, $7,400

• Not amazing so far in 2026, but certainly not bad, especially considering where he is priced this week. He finished T38 at AMEX, T35 in Phoenix, and T34 last week at Riviera.
• Putts like shit on bermuda, but somehow he has finished ok on some comp courses in his career.
• I don’t love the play, but there are not a ton of great options down here.

 

Billy Horschel, $7,100

• This pick backs up the fact that I put full faith in my theory that we need to disregard West Coast golf when it comes to this week, because Billy has been bad.
• He seems to turn it around when it comes to Florida as he has finished T16, T42, T16, T42, T9, and T25 here his last six appearances.
• Last year he finished T25 coming off two straight West Coast missed cuts.
• He did make the cut at Sony and finish T27 at AMEX, so it has not been a complete disaster.

 

SH Kim, $7,000

• Perfect 4 for 4 in made cuts in 2026 and he had a couple nice finishes early at Sony (T13) and AMEX (T18).
• Has been good off the tee thus far this season (19th in SG:OTT) and with the putter (26th in SG:P).
• Made the cut both times at PGA National

 

Zecheng Dou, $6,900

• Perfect in made cuts thus far in 2026 with his best finish coming in his last appearance in Phoenix finishing T13.
• The recent stats look good ranking 20th in SG:T2G, 7th in SG:APP, and 20th in SG:TOT over his 16 rounds in 2026.

 

Davis Riley, $6,600

• Not a guy I have rostered yet this year, but he is on a Florida course with bermuda greens now and the last time he played on bermuda he finished T6 at Sony.
• He is four for four in made cuts here at PGA National.
• Gains 1.093 strokes on Florida courses.
• Worth 10-15% exposure with the limited reasonable options down here.

 

A few low cost/low owned guys I will own at 10% or less:

Michael Brennan, $7,200

Joel Dahmen, $7,000

Austin Smotherman, $6,500