Jeff’s Hardcore Core- Charles Schwab Challenge
Bouncing back after a major championship is never easy, especially after one that ended in the type of fashion last week’s PGA Championship did with Phil Mickelson defying the odds and winning. Just like with Harbourtown, a course I really like and have had tons of success with DFS with following The Masters, we have another course this week that I have done well with in the past, Colonial. In 2015, which now seems like an eternity ago, I had a huge week winning over $50k and qualifying for the Fantasy Golf World Championship (FGWC). I will never forget being up on a family fishing trip on the Minnesota/Canadian border and finding a local bar to watch the last 30 minutes of play and coming out victorious. I can only hope history can repeat itself and I can win another ticket to this years FGWC to add to the three I have already. Speaking of qualifying, I wanted to give a shout out to loyal FGI member Brian Gallucci won a qualifier last week. Nice job Brian. That now makes at least six tickets for Team FGI that I know about already. Keep up the great work folks! Anyway, I like Colonial, have had success with it in the past, and look forward to another big week. I will be upping my weekly bankroll exposure this week a bit as I always do for events that I have done well with in the past. Good luck Team FGI!
Jeff’s Strategy & Core- Charles Schwab Challenge
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The first thing we need to do before we get into any strategy, player identification, or anything else is we need to wipe the slate (and our brains clean) from last week. I talk about this every tournament following a major and especially those majors played on really difficult courses. Kiawah Island was a different animal. The course was an absolute beast, totally different than Colonial, some really difficult conditions, etc. Now, if a guy did well last week, I will take that as a bonus, but not necessarily indicative of how well they will play this week. If a guy did poorly, I am going to completely disregard it. I do not care, it is irrelevant no matter how bad they may have looked. Along the same lines, I am also hesitant to place much emphasis on last years results either. As you remember it was the very first event back after the long covid hiatus. Guys were clearly rusty and many were not their normal selves. Again, if a player did well, great, but if they normally play well here and did poorly, I think the long lay-off likely could have been a significant factor.
Characteristics for Colonial are the following- 7,200 yards, Par 70, with fast bentgrass greens. Narrow fairways with medium to difficult rough (and trees, lots of trees), and difficult scoring.
I talk often about identifying what “type” of player to target based upon the specific course that is being played that week. A good share of weeks on the PGA Tour bombers have such a monster advantage, especially on those courses with generously wide fairways. Colonial is not that course. It features well below average width of fairways, is a shorter course, and has significant trouble in the form of trees and thick rough for those who do not hit the fairway. It is a course that bombers do not have a significant edge. As a matter of fact it is one of only a few courses that we see during the year that I believe accurate players off the tee actually have a significant advantage.
As for comp courses I will be using the following-
#1 Harbourtown
#2 Waialae CC
#3 TPC Potomac
#4 Copperhead
#5 Firestone CC
#6 Riviera
One thing I always like to do for courses like Colonial is compare driving accuracy to driving distance on our rolling stats tool under the fairways/greens on the scroll down menu and look for guys who usually struggle in the distance category, but are strong in the accuracy department (also GIR). It has served me very well to do this over the years and helped identify some guys that get overlooked because they get lapped on longer, more open tracks.
My FGI Model will look like this- 43% Current Form, 32% Key Stats, 10% Vegas, and 15% Course History. Current Form- 10% Last 52 weeks, 50% Last 13 weeks, 25% Last 2 weeks, and 15% Last 1 week. For Stats- 20% SG:T2G, 10% SG:APP, 20% SG:P, 15% DA, 10% PROX, 15% BOB%, and 10% SCRAM.
Jordan Spieth putted so horribly the first two rounds last week that I physically became ill watching him (lost 1.858 and 2.508). He bounce back strong on Saturday and had one of the better rounds of anybody on moving day. He putted better on Sunday, but his approach game was off. Overall it was pretty much worst case scenario for Spieth last week and he still managed to make the cut and finish T30, which shows how on point he is lately. Obviously his track record at Colonial is amazing (T7, T14, T2, win, T2, T32, T8, and T10). Home state, comfortable course, great form, I am going to own 33-35% this week.
I am rarely an owner of Collin Morikawa because he typically lets me down when I own him and his horrific putter drives me absolutely insane. Colonial however sets up as the absolute most perfect course for Morikawa. 1st in SG:T2G, 3rd in SG:OTT, 1st in SG:APP, 4th in DA, and 1st in GIR over his last 16 rounds simply is too good for me to pass on. He finished runner-up here last year, has two straight Top 10s coming into this week and won at the WGC Workday a couple of months ago. At comp courses lately he also has a T7 at Harbourtown and T7 at Sony. The price is high, but we can certainly fit him in and actually pair him with a top notch $8 or 9k guy. 30-32%
Abraham Ancer has been playing lights out golf most of the year, but struggled last week at Kiawah for the first three rounds. He mounted an incredible final round on Sunday and climbed all the way up to a tie for 8th. He gets a much different course this week and one he has success on going 3 for 3 in made cuts here and finishing T14 here last year. Before last week he had strung together eight straight Top 30 finishes, including back to back Top 5s. He is striking the ball beautifully ranking 14th in SG:T2G, 28th in SG:APP, and 2nd in SG:OTT. He is one of the most accurate players off the tee on tour, which will behoove him greatly at Colonial. He is yet to win on the PGA Tour despite many runner-up finishes, but this week could be the one he breaks through. His ownership will be extremely high this week for all the reasons I just listed and it is possible that it reaches as much as 25% or even higher in smaller GPPs. I am going to own 40%
Corey Conners is such the prototypical type of player for these shorter, really narrow courses. Conners is extremely accurate off the tee (12th on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy) and his approach into greens (6th in SG:APP). He continued his stretch of good, solid consistent golf last week with a T17 at The PGA Championship making it 9 consecutive cuts made and seven Top 25s in that stretch. Not surprisingly Conners has been good at Colonial in each of his three appearances finishing T8, T31, and T19. I have owned Conners just about every single week he has played this year and the vast majority of the time I am pleased by the output, so I will stick with him on a perfect course for him. Along with Ancer, Conners will be one of the most popular players owned this week. 40%.
I will be up front and say that I do not like Charley Hoffman. The guy has burned me every single time I have owned him. With that being said, it is hard to argue with both his current form (9 straight made cuts and of which 7 were Top 20s). There were a couple of courses in there that I did not think were great fits for him and he still produced solid results. He comes to Colonial this week, which I do believe is a really nice course fit for him. Before last year when he missed the cut (but I am ignoring for the reason I stated above), he made eight consecutive cuts here with five Top 25 finishes. He has been killing it from tee to green this season and ranks 3rd in SG:T2G and 7th in SG:APP over his last 16 rounds. He will likely be pretty popular this week, but he has so many things lining up for him that I cannot ignore him even though he will likely burn me like he always has.
I think we all know by now that Ryan Palmer’s home course is Colonial. In 2015 when information like that was considered super important and when people found out about it they went crazy. I used that to my advantage and intentionally faded him knowing his ownership would be through the roof because that information was new and hot. These days however it is old news and ownership rarely skyrockets for anybody. I like Palmer’s current form (14 straight made cuts before last week) and although inconsistent at Colonial through the years with three missed cuts in the last ten years, he has shown tremendous upside with four Top 6 finishes in that time. 28%
Brian Harman missed the cut at Kiawah and as I talked about earlier, I do not care. He has had an excellent 2021 making every cut and finishing Top 20 in each of his last five events, excluding the PGA Championship. He has been terrific at Colonial having not finished worse than 31st in each of the last five years and finishing Top 25 in four of those. His short game and putter have been scorching hot this entire season and ranks 6th in both SG:ATG and SG:P in his last 16 rounds played. 28%
Short course where accuracy is huge is a great place for Emiliano Grillo and he has shown that at Colonial a few times with a T24 in 2017, 3rd in 2018, and T19 in 2019. He missed the cut here last year after the long covid break. Grillo has been less consistent making the cut this year, but he does have some high upside finishes with a T11 at Puerto Rico, T6 at Puntacana, T2 at Harbourtown, and T14 at Wells Fargo. Typically, Grillo is more accurate off the tee, but recently not as much. His approach game is superior and ranks 9th in SG:PP over his last 16 rounds. Always a horrific putter, he is less terrible on bentgrass by .309 strokes. He is just the type of player I like to target at Colonial. 25%
It seems like it is safe to say that Brandt Snedeker has figured out what was ailing him for a long period of time last year into this year. He now has five consecutive made cuts, including four Top 20 finishes. Colonial is a great spot for him where he has had success in the past making the cut in each of his past seven appearances. 30%
I have had this week circled for Chris Kirk as a place/tournament that he can make his comeback complete and win again on the PGA Tour. He has played here a lot over his career and was able to win in 2015 along with helping me win about $50k and a ticket into the 2015 FGWC live final. Outside of a dud at Kiawah Island, which I will be completely ignoring, Kirk has had a very strong season with only two missed cuts and seven Top 25s in ten events played. I don’t think Kirk is going to have much for ownership having missed his last two cuts, having not played here in 2019 and finishing T60 here last year. The price is right as well for Kirk this week and I think he can do some damage. 25%
Sitting up top in total strokes gained in my course comparison tool with a really large sample size is Matt Kuchar. He missed the cut here last year, but he had a T32, T12, T6, mc, 2nd, T26, and T16 in the years prior to that. He is an accuracy based player, so it makes sense that he has done really well here in the past. I would not consider owning him a couple months ago, but lately he has shown some signs of coming out of his slump including a nice run at the match play, T12 at Valero, T18 at Harbourtown, and T17 at Byron Nelson. I still do not trust Kuch completely, but I like the price and obviously love the course fit.
Three straight Top 40 finishes for Russell Knox (T21, T18, and T39) is certainly promising. What is also promising is how nice of a fit Knox is for Colonial as he specializes in driving accuracy (17th in DA in this field over his last 16 rounds) and approach game (11th in SG:APP). Outside of last year, Knox has been terrific at Colonial with four Top 25 finishes in four events played. Good form, good history here, and great course fit, makes me like Knox a lot this week. He has only one appearance at Colonial finishing T49 last year. 20%
I have included Matthew NeSmith in my core multiple times this year and for the most part he has delivered. For a guy consistently in the los $7k and $6k range he has made 9 out of his last 11 cuts, including his last six straight. What I really like about NeSmith is how accurate he has been lately ranking 23rd in DA and 6th in GIR over his last 16 rounds. He struggles with putting overall, but he is much better on bentgrass (.317 vs -.141). 14%
Extremely short off the tee (118th in DD over his last 16 rounds), but extremely accurate (3rd in DA), Brendon Todd does not have a ton of tournament history at Colonial, but he does own a T5 (2014). He missed the cut here in 2016 and last year, but that is a very small sample size. He missed the cut last week, but before then he made six straight. Plus he has a couple higher finishes at TOC (T13) and WGC Workday (T18). His lack of distance will not be nearly the hinderance it is most weeks and his accuracy will be a huge benefit. His putting remains stellar (10th in SG:P over his last 16 rounds). Cheap price for a guy who has been making a lot of cuts this year.
Not too many courses allow Brian Stuard to have an advantage, but Colonial is one of them. Stuard is far from long off the tee, but he is extremely accurate. That would explain most of the success he has had in his career taking place at courses with real narrow fairways (Waialae, Harbourtown, Silverado, San Antonio) and of course Colonial where he has made the cut in each of his last four tries. He has made the cut in three of his last four and placed in the Top 40 in all three of those. Over his last 24 rounds he ranks 34th in SG:T2G and 13th in SG:APP. He is a cheap option that is a terrific course fit.
One of the prices that stood out to me immediately when I opened the Draftkings app was that of Vincent Whaley at $6,200. That was validated by our odds vs pricing tool where Whaley is +14 and atop the list. Whaley has made eight straight cuts and has finished within the Top 36 in his last seven of those. A consistent cut maker at $6,200 is very appetizing because it frees up so much salary cap to allocate elsewhere. The only thing that scares me a bit about Whaley is his lack of accuracy off the tee. I will own about 8-10% of Whaley, which may or may not make me 2X the field, but I am not willing to go much higher.
Spieth $11,200
Morikawa $10,500
Ancer $9,700
Conners $9,400
Hoffman $8,700
Palmer $8,600
Harman $8,000
Grillo $7,900
Snedeker $7,900
Kirk $7,600
Kuchar $7,600
Knox $7,300
NeSmith $7,300
Todd $7,100
Stuard $6,700
Whaley $6,200
A few low owned/low priced guys I will own at 10% or less:
Redman $7,200
Ghim $7,200
Stanley $7,100
Garnett $6,200
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