Jeff’s Hardcore Core- Career Builder Challenge

What a weekend of sports it was between the NFL playoffs and the dramatic games it produced along with the Sony Open going to a playoff. I am still recovering from witnessing my team the Minnesota Vikings be the beneficiary of the most miraculous final play of a game I have ever seen. No fewer than two seconds after I muttered to my family, “another year, another letdown”, Stephon Diggs leaped up, caught the pass from Case Keenum and the Saints defender made the worst play by a defensive back in the history of the NFL by diving into the ground allowing Diggs to glide into the endzone for the game winner. I have seen hail mary’s converted before and many incredible plays in the thousands of NFL games I have watched, but never anything like that and certainly I have never been on the right side of one like that.

Of course after the conclusion of football the Sony Open provided us a dramatic ending as Patton Kizzire defeated James Hahn on the 6th playoff hole. I was especially happy with the result as I had an outright bet on Kizzire to win. I was expecting a big year from Kizzire as I featured him in my Crystal Ball Article: 2018 Edition. I wish I would have had him in my core and owned him more than I did in GPPs last week.  Speaking of my Core, it was very solid again this week, despite the fact that I did not have the winner. As you would guess, I am kicking myself for not having Kizzire in my core since I was looking forward to a big season from him and I owned most everybody else that I featured in that column. I need to make a more concerted effort to not miss any more winners from that column because there have been so many winners from that column the last few years.

Having four guys in my core finish in the Top 10 (Harman, Simpson, Stanley, and Kirk) certainly helped my cause as I was able to easily make it into the money on many of my rosters. Jordan Spieth certainly did not do us any favors, finishing a disappointing T18 and not nearly getting close to producing value. In my Wednesday email, I let everybody know that I had decided to fade Jason Dufner based upon what I figured would be massive ownership in GPPs. I feel like the hypothesis was correct as he was owned by 31% in both the $8 and $33 and 41% in the $333. The move did not prove to either help or hurt me that much as Dufner finished T18, but a few of the guys I chose to pivot off of him in favor of (Stanley, Kirk, and Cook) all finished the same or better than Dufner. I will continue to pull the trigger on fades for players that are going to reach such high ownership levels because the reward is so much greater than the risk.

The only real killer for me in the upper or mid-tier was Russell Henley who made a miraculous effort to miss the cut on Friday. After starting the second round at +2 following a lousy first round, Henley came out strong and got to -2 and inside the cutline. Then he had a 2 foot 8” putt for par on his 13th hole of which he missed. Then he had a 4-foot putt coming back for bogey for which he also missed. It was a dreadful choke and what made it worse was the fact that he ended up birdieing his 16th hole and eagling his 18th to miss the cut by a stroke. Really painful missed cut from a guy I had significant exposure to.

It was an o.k. week, but again one that I am not satisfied with. We are close and as you know in GPPs, we only need a few times each year that we hit the nuts and we have done that the last four years, so there is no doubt in my mind that it will happen again this year. Keep disciplined with your bankroll management to make sure you are in the game. Keep researching hard by using all of the tools on the site. Keep building strong lineups. And finally and maybe most importantly, yet rarely talked about throughout the industry is apply smart game theory.

This week is one of those quirky weeks as we have the Career Builder Challenge which is a pro-am event and it is held on three different courses, so the cut will take place after 54 holes. I have some thoughts on how this type of event effects the players and I will discuss in-depth the strategy and lineup composition that I will be employing this week as well as the players in my core for GPPs.

Jeff’s Strategy & Hardcore Core- Career Builder Challenge
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