Jeff’s Hardcore Core- Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Although we have had really lousy fields this fall, it does not mean we do not have the opportunity to win serious money. Last week was one of those weeks for us. A great week in DFS and an 80-1 outright win from Erik Van Rooyen (not to mention a winning DFS week in NFL and a 3 for 3 betting card). It was a huge weekend and one that makes dealing with these fields worthwhile. We have always talked about the fall season being an excellent opportunity to exploit our competition not paying attention and that includes the sportsbooks. 80-1 for a guy like EVR last week in that kind of form and in that weak of a field was a mistake and one of the few that sportsbooks ever make. It does not always work out even when we do identify great value, but it did last week. I hope all of you used the information to fatten your wallets and let’s try and do it again the next few weeks.
This week is the last international event of the PGA Tour season and the second to the last overall. Of course we have the Hero World Challenge, but that does not count toward FedEx Cup standings.
This is the fifth edition of The Bermuda Championship, so we have four years of course history to work with on our tournament history page.
Unlike previous editions of this event, which did not mean a whole lot as far as importance of FedEx Cup points and standings because it was early in the season, this years edition means a ton. This is the second to the last opportunity for guys to accumulate FedEx Cup points in this season and try to secure their spot in the Top 125 and PGA Tour exemption status for 2024.
Jeff’s Strategy & Core- Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Port Royal Golf Club is a Robert Trent Jones design and is a Par 71 and 6,828 yards long. A very short course, it has eight par 4s that will play under 420 yards. The fairways are narrow to medium width, but the rough is low. The only real defense this course has is the fact that it sits right on the coast and if winds kick up then it becomes tricky to control the ball off the tee and into the greens. I will provide my regular update on wind in my Wednesday evening email. We see other courses that sit right on the coast throughout the year including Pebble Beach, Waialae CC, El Camaleon (Mayakoba) to name a few. The greens are bermuda grass, so be sure to consult our turf splits tool to see who putts better on bermuda,
For comparison courses I will be using the following:
#1 Wailalae CC
#2 Harbourtown
#3 El Camaleon
#4 TPC Southwind
#5 Corales Golf Club
#6 El Cardonal at Diamante
My FGI Model will look like this: 50% Current Form, 30% Key Stats, 10% Vegas, and 10% Course History. Current Form- 10% Last 52, 50% Last 13, 25% Last 2, and 15% Last 1. Key Stats- 20% SG:T2G, 10% SG:APP, 25% SG:P, 8% DA, 5% PROX, 5% P75-100, 5% PAR 5, 15% BOB%, and 7% SCRAM.
Overall, I am looking for good ball strikers with a great approach game, especially in the short approach game with all the short Par 4 holes. Approach shots should be around the 100 yard range. From the last four years results, it is apparent that guys who excel in accuracy have done extremely well. When we have very short courses like this, I like to see who the players are that are short off the tee, but are accurate. In most events, they have such a disadvantage, but here distance will not be a factor. Go to the fairways/greens drop down on the Rolling Stats tool and see who ranks poorly in DD, but high in DA. I also like to put quite a bit more emphasis on putting this week as there are going to be a ton of makeable putts in the 8-10 foot range. When looking at tournament history a ton of not necessarily great players, but good putters have played well here and have even won in the past. For example: Brian Gay, Lucas Herbert, Brendon Todd, Peter Malnati, etc.
Thomas Detry, $10,500
I was going between Detry and Scott for my ownership up top and I settled on Detry. He has not had the high upside finishes lately (highest only T23 in his last five events). If not for a really slow start last week, his finish would have been much higher as he went 68-66-68 Friday through Sunday. Detry is a guy who has had success in fall events and in these lesser field, tropical locations including a T15 at Puntacana and Mayakoba, and a T22 and runner-up here at Port Royal. It is hard to tell where his ownership will land this week, but I wouldn’t think it would be real high considering his lack of good form the last couple of months. I like the fact that he has been active and playing in these events though and will have 35-40% exposure.
Akshay Bhatia, $10,000
The price is sickening, but I think we need to stick with our narrative of owning Bhatia on easy, resort style courses in tropical locations. He continued his solid play on those types of courses last week in Mexico with a T10. His finishes this fall have gone T43, T35, T21, and T10. Akshay finished T17 here last year. 35-40%
Ben Griffin, $9,300
Looked good last week (T23 at WorldWide) after a couple bumpy performances at Shriners and ZOZO. I like Griffin as a player and think he has a ton of upside. We almost got a win out of him at Sanderson earlier this fall when he was one par away and an 8-footer away from winning (finished runner-up up, lost in playoff). He has had a good year putting (47th in SG:P on Tour), but especially lately (13th in this field over his last 12 rounds). He also ranks 16th in this field in SG:APP over those same 12 rounds. Griffin maintains some of the highest putting splits in the field (+.641) on bermuda. He played well here at Port Royal last year and finished T3. Eventually his close calls will turn into a win, but there is nothing wrong with just being close for this price in DFS. 35-40%
Alex Smalley, $8,900
I like Smalley as a player even if his form is not all that tremendous right now. Smalley went on a great run last fall that included a T4 at Houston, T5 at RSM, and a T11 here in this event. He also finished T12 here the year before. He stands above most everybody in this price range regarding talent and we might get a break on ownership with his lack of form. 35-40%
Mackenzie Hughes, $8,700 Withdrew from the field. Take him out of your lineups.
A big finish from a struggling Hughes last week at World Wide (T7). I don’t know if this will be a sign of things to come from a guy who was ranked in the Top 50 in the world earlier this year, but he has the ability. Hughes is one of the best putters in the field, which also gives promise to him playing well this week. 25-30%
Dylan Wu, $8,200
Solid in the approach game overall (50th in Tour in SG:APP), but he is really strong in short approach game (27th on Tour from 100-125). He missed the cut at Shriners and Sanderson, and finished ZOZO T59, so his form is not real strong right now. He has made the cut here each of the last two trips (T49 and T46). I am banking on course fit with Wu this week. 20-25%
Vincent Whaley, $8,000
Although it was not a great finish last week (T59), Whaley did continue his consecutive cut made streak this fall (4). His other finishes this fall have been much better (T25 at Fortinet, T29 at Sanderson, T13 at Shriners). His stats this fall (12 rounds) are very impressive ranking 10th in SG:T2G, 27th in SG:APP, and 11th in SG:P. Whaley missed the cut at Port Royal in 2021, but finished T7 in 2022. 25-28%
Lanto Griffin, $7,900
Two straight good performances for Lanto heading into last week (T28 and T13). The reason I was not interested in him for WorldWIde was because of his poor tee to green play. It has strictly been his putter that has been carrying him. Well, if ever the place a pure putter could do well, this would be one of them. Over his last 12 rounds he ranks 5th in SG:P in this field. Back in 2020, Griffin finished T18. 20-25%
Justin Lower, $7,600
Started the fall slow, but has since been better with a T41 at ZOZO and T23 last week. Not many measured rounds for Lower this fall, but over his last 8 he ranks 30th in SG:T2G and 4th in SG:APP in this field. The best part about Lower is his results here the last two years (T17 and T8). 20-25%
Harry Hall, $7,600
A missed cut last week at Worldwide after a couple good performances T21 at ZOZO and T26 at Shriners. Hall is a phenomenal putter and we have seen phenomenal putters win here before (Brian Gay). Hall ranks 4th on Tour in SG:P and 13th from 8-feet. He made the cut here last year, although not a tremendous finish (T63). Its all about reasonable form and great putter for Hall. 16-20%
Adam Long, $7,600
A real streaky player that has begun to play better lately with finishes of T35 at Sanderson, T35 at Shriners, and T23 at WorldWide last week. His stats for Sanderson and Shriners have him ranking 10th in SG:T2G and 21st in SG:APP in this field (last 8 rounds). 18-22%
Peter Malnati, $7,400
Not a good player, but can putt the lights out, which is why he has finished T21 and T7 in his two appearances here. Malnati has won on the PGA Tour and it was in the fall season in a lesser field. I cannot remember the last time I have owned Malnati, but this is a different kind of week. 13-18%
Russell Knox, $7,300
Always a crapshoot when rostering Knox, but at this price in this field, he is more than capable of giving us a Top 30 finish, which is what we would need from him. Three out of his last four cuts made with two Top 30 finishes. At this event he has four made cuts with three Top 20s. Those are amazing credentials for anybody in this price range. 20-25%
Austin Smotherman, $7,200
After a couple missed cuts to start the fall, Smotherman has bounced back well with a T35 at Shriners and T23 at WorldWide last week. Over his last 12 measured rounds he ranks 18th in SG:T2G, 9th in SG:APP, and 71st in SG:P. He missed the cut here in 2022, but posted a T23 last year. A good young player that hopefully will continue his positive trend. 15-20%
Kelly Kraft, $7,200
I continued to ride the Kelly Kraft momentum last week and although he finished only 71st, he did make the cut and for his low price it was not the worst thing in the world. This week he gets a price hike, but it still lands at only $7,200. The recent stats for Kraft are all solid (15th in SG:T2G, 11th in SG:APP, and 16th in SG:P over his last 24 rounds). 15-20%
Brent Grant, $7,000
A couple straight Top 40 finishes (Shriners and World Wide) along with a T35 here last year is enough for me to buy some shares at this price this week. 10-15%
Brian Gay, $6,700
It is tough not to think that Gay will have success on this course as he has gone T3, win, T12, and T11 in his previous visits. His results on the Champions Tour have been pretty solid as he has gone T10, T5, and T11 in his last three events there. At this price, I find I have to have some exposure, 10-15%
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