Jeff’s Hardcore Core- AT&T Byron Nelson

Jeff Bergerson
By Jeff Bergerson May 17, 2016 23:39

Jeff’s Hardcore Core- AT&T Byron Nelson

Some real ups and downs from the Hardcore Core last week. We were fortunate enough to have a few FGI Members let us know that they cashed in with huge paydays, including one who took 3rd in the $33 Dogleg for $15,000. I unfortunately did not have any big cashes myself. There were too many grenades included in the Core that blew up most of my rosters. We did have Day, which was critical last week along with some other good plays like Kuchar, Summerhays, and Hearn. Knox, ZJ, and Haas all were in the Top 10 at one point or another, giving me hope for a huge week, but fell off and disappointed us. Then the obvious MCs by Spieth, Fowler, and Stenson, which if I could have predicted, I would be a very rich person right now. But, unfortunately I cannot see the future and predict near impossibilities, but that is the nature of GPP play and DFS Golf in general. If you had a bad week, it does not mean your process is broken, it just means you have succumb to the variance for a week or two. Stick to the Core and you will win in the long-term.

This week is about the exact opposite in field strength as last week at The Players. There are a few big names, but not many. For that exact reason we are going to see extreme ownership bunching. If you remember back to a few weeks ago for the Zurich when there were 3 elite players in the field (Day, Rose and Fowler) I predicted ownership of nearly 25-35% of each of them and that a solid strategy might be to fade them and try and separate yourself from the masses in GPPs. Sure enough it paid off in a big as Jason Day was the only one of the three that played decent, but even he underperformed his price.

We find ourselves in a similar position this week. I believe Dustin Johnson will be owned by a very large percentage of the field, possibly upwards of 30% in some GPPs. Even Jordan Spieth who looked awful last week will get owners, because the options are so limited. Other guys that I believe will have a huge following are Matt Kuchar, Ryan Palmer, and Gary Woodland. The tough part is that I actually like them all this week. You need to make up your mind whether to fade those players, like DJ that look automatic this week to try and avoid a large percentage of the field. I think there are some decent contrarian options this week that will be overlooked that I think could surprise and help you make a big score. You will see by my list of players in The Core that I like a balanced approach this week and a lot of guys in that $8-9k range. It has been an enormous feat to try and get six guys through the cut this season and this week will not be any different. For that reason I am going with guys who are going to give me the best shot of doing that. Whether they will or not remains to be seen, but I want to go with the odds. Best of luck to all of you and keep me updated if you are in contention.

The Hardcore Core:

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Dustin Johnson (every metric points to DJ as being a strong play, but a fade due to ownership is a legitimate strategy that might pay off big for you)
Brooks Koepka
Marc Leishman
Brandt Snededker
Ryan Palmer
Jimmy Walker
Danny Lee
Gary Woodland
Tony Finau
Scott Piercy
Colt Knost
Bryce Molder
Lucas Glover
Zac Blair
Tim Wilkinson
Martin Flores

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Jeff Bergerson
By Jeff Bergerson May 17, 2016 23:39

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