Jeff’s Hardcore Core- AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

If you have been playing DFS golf a while, you know how difficult it can be most of the time to win, especially when we talk about GPPs. Not unlike most other things in life, you constantly need to keep learning and adapting to changing surroundings. Over the past 4 years of playing DFS golf, I have seen the landscape shift unimaginably from where we started. We are proud to say that we at Fantasy Golf Insider were one of the very first golf websites catering to DFS golf players. Back then, if you knew tournament history, you had the leg up on most everybody.

Since then, we have introduced to people the importance of ownership trends, aggregate ownership, recency bias, fading the chalk, lineup composition, stacking tee times, contrarian plays, pivoting, etc, etc. I feel like we have come to another point that we need make an adjustment to our strategy. Recently Draftkings has presented pricing that has us scratching our heads to say the least. Last week guys like Mickelson, Watson, Berger, Oosthuizen, Kuchar were severely underpriced for no particular reason. These plays stood out to me like Daniel Berger’s girlfriend. I figured that because it was so easy for me to identify these guys that ownership would be through the rough across all GPPs. For that reason, I took the stance of fading a couple of them and being underweight on the others, despite the fact that I loved their chances of outperforming their price. Almost every single one of those guys I listed had ownership lower than I had thought, especially in the lower dollar buy-ins like the large $3. This is not unlike the majors, when we see super soft pricing and expect the ownership to be high on guys, but is usually not as we expected. For this reason, I am going to shift my strategy and not try to be as contrarian and intentionally underweight, but rather to be overweight those guys and take the value. This is especially true when you are multi entering tournaments. Last week is just one example, but I have seen this become a trend lately.  You will see many of these guys in my Hardcore Core this week and weeks going forward -or- until Draftkings stops with the blatent misses.

Last week the highlights for the Core were Matsuyama (which is always key to have the winner), Spieth, Mickelson, Steele, Laird, and Oosthuizen. The obvious lowlights were Woodland, Perez (WDs are impossible to predict, but that doesn’t make it any less painful), Knox, and List. Like I mentioned above, I loved Daniel Berger, but faded him intentionally because I thought his ownership would be through the roof. As it turned out he was only owned by 10% in the $27 and 9% in the $3.  I guess people outside of Team FGI are not as smart as we give them credit for.

Best of luck this week.

Jeff’s Hardcore Core-

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