Jeff’s Hardcore Core- Arnold Palmer Invitational

Week two of the Florida swing this week at Arnie’s Place (Bay Hill) and we have another elevated event, so the field is loaded and we get to see the top guys navigate a fun course in Bay Hill.  We have a nice run of events starting this week and then going into The Players next week, Copperhead the following week, and The Masters in just a little over a month.  A great time for us DFS diehards.

Best of luck this week Team FGI!

Jeff’s Strategy and Core- Arnold Palmer Invitational-

First of all, the key thing to remember is that we have a small field and there is a cut (Top 50 and ties and anyone within 10 shots of the lead).

Following PGA National always works nicely as we have another typical Florida course in Bay Hill with speedy Tiffeagle bermuda greens, which average 7,500 square feet in size.  Like last week there is plenty of water with double bogey in play (9 holes with water in play).  Bay Hill is 7,466 yards, Par 72, average to wide fairway length, long rough, plenty of sand, and average to difficult scoring.

Length off the tee, long iron play, strong scrambling ability and scoring on Par 5s are all factors that I emphasize here every year.  Arnold Palmer wanted the setup to be similar to a major championship.  Most of the Par 4s are extremely difficult so most of the scoring has to be done on the par 5s.  In the past, players have made the comparison to Augusta on and around it’s greens.  This is mainly because you need to hit certain spots on the greens or the ball will run off and you will have a difficult chip back on.  The greens typically run between 12.5 and 13 on the stimpmeter at Bay Hill and are among some of the largest on tour.

Much like PGA National last week, wind helps significantly dictate the difficulty.  Unlike PGA National however, Bay Hill remained really difficult last year with only the winner, Russell Henley shooting better than -10.

Be sure to check out the forecast Wednesday night for opportunities to stack some Main and Showdown rosters.

Here are the main courses I will use in my course comparison tool:

#1 PGA National (Honda).  Not as long as Bay Hill and only a Par 70, but PGA National is a Florida course with speedy bermuda greens.

#2 Innisbrook, Copperhead (Valspar).  Slightly shorter, Par 71, but another Florida course with fast Bermuda greens and very difficult.

#3 TPC Sawgrass, Florida course that I used for Honda last week.

#4 Country Club of Jackson (Sanders Farms).  Similar in length, Par 72, and speedy Bermuda greens.

#5 Augusta (The Masters)

#6 East Lake

Here is how my FGI Model will look this week- 45% Current Form, 30% Key Stats, 5% Vegas Odds, and 20% Course History. Current Form- Last 52 weeks 10%, Last 13 weeks 60%, Last 2 20%, and Last 1 10%.  Stats are 20% SG:T2G, 10% SG:APP, 20% SG:P, 8% DD, 10% PROX, 10% PAR 5, 10% BOB, 5% BOW %, and 7% SCRAM.

Scottie is going to put it all together one of these weeks and this week could very well be it, but again his price does not allow much of a lineup beyond him ($7,180 per player).  I like guys down in the low $7k and $6k range, just not five all on the same roster.  I will keep pushing my luck with the fade of Scottie as it has worked so far.

 

Rory McIlroy, $11,600

• Rory’s B-game remains better than just about everybody’s A-game.  He shot 66-65-69-67 and finished runner-up at Riviera and I don’t think he even played that amazing.
• 2nd in SG:T2G and 3rd in SG:APP in this field in his 8 rounds this year.
• Plays Bay Hill every year and has finished Top 10 six times and won in 2018.
• The discount from Scottie should not be this much at the moment.

 

Tommy Fleetwood, $10,300

• Two great performances in 2026 so far (T7 and T4) as his worst round was a 70 at Riviera.
• Over his 8 rounds he ranks 5th in SG:T2G, 13th in SG:OTT< 39th in SG:APP, 1st in SG:ATG, and 24th in SG:P.
• He has been pretty good at Bay Hill throughout his career and kills it on comp courses.
• I think he is worth paying up for.

 

Matthew Fitzpatrick, $9,800

• I also have an outright on Mr Fitzpatrick this week I like him so much.
• His tee to green game has been sensational so far in 2026 (4th in SG:T2G, 12th in SG:OTT, 3rd in SG:APP, and 4th in SG:BS.  Where he has struggled is with the putter (62nd in SG:P), but now we are in his wheelhouse on bermuda where he is .306 strokes better.
• Bay Hill has been a regular stop for Fitz throughout his career and he has been consistently good with seven Top 25s and four Top 10s in his last 10 appearances.
• I am loading up here at 40-45%

 

Ben Griffin, $8,700

• Last week I talked a lot about separating what happened on the West Coast with what typically happens in Florida and Griffin falls in that category.
• Ho hum finishes of T37 at Pebble and T41 at Riviera in his last two should have him off most folks radars.
• Ranks really well on comp courses gaining 1.129 total strokes and putts .531 strokes better on bermuda grass.
• Minimal history here at Bay hill with a T45 last year and a T14 in 2023.
• We don’t need a ton of exposure to be 2X the field, probably only 25-28%

 

Jake Knapp, $8,600

• The price seems too good to be true considering how well he has played in 2026- T11, T5, T8, T8, and T6 are his finishes.
• Recent stats are stellar across the board- 11th in SG:T2G, 19th in SG:APP, 2nd in SG:P over his last 16 rounds.
• Gains 1.68 total strokes on comp courses in a small 5 event sample size.

 

Chris Gotterup, $8,300

• On bent/POA grass this season Gotterup has a T18 at Torrey Pines, T37 at Pebble, and MC at Riviera.  On bermuda grass this season Gotterup has a win at Sony and a win at Waste Management.  Over his career he is .531 strokes better on bermuda than other turf.
• Looking at his 2026 rounds played he ranks 2nd in SG:T2G, 4th in SG:OTT, 17th in SG:APP, 14th in SG:ATG, and 13th in SG:TOT.  The only place he lags is SG:P (59th) and most rounds have come on POA.
• Just like with Ben Griffin, I think Gotterup has fallen off people’s radars and we get him at less ownership than normal.

 

Shane Lowry, $8,100

• I would be lying if I said I wasn’t nervous about how last weeks collapse could negatively impact him this week, but not considering that, he is a terrific play this week.
• +1.303 strokes on comp courses and a T7 and T3 here at Bay Hill the last two years.
• Approach game and putter have been locked in, so I am going to hope he can put last week behind him and grab a 20-25% stake.

 

Pierceson Coody, $7,600

• I have been on Coody all year, so why change now as he has rewarded us with great finishes in all but one event this year.  A T2 at Torrey, T13 at Sony, T10 in Phoenix, and T16 at Riviera.
• Over his last 16 rounds he ranks 9th in this field in SG:T2G, 1st in SG:OTT, and 11thin SG:APP.
• The comp course numbers and putting splits are not good, but I am not sure they reflect how good of a player he has become now.

 

Nicolai Hojgaard, $7,200

• I will ride the hot hand here as Nicolai has been terrific his last two events played with a T3 in Phoenix and T6 last week at PGA National.
• Over his last 12 rounds he ranks 6th in SG:T2G, 10th in SG:APP, and 15th in SG:P.

 

Ryan Gerard, $7,200

• A great run early this year with back to back runner-up finishes at Sony and AMEX.  Lately has not been as good, but still not bad with a T28 at Riviera and T23 at PGA National last week.
• His tee to green game has been really strong ranking 26th in SG:T2G and 4th in SG:APP over his last 16 rounds.
• He ranks well on the course comp tool and gains +.278 strokes more on bermuda.
• One of the stronger plays down in this range.

 

Daniel Berger, $6,800

• I went back to Berger last week because he was back in Florida and he played pretty well (T32)  shooting 67-71-71-69.
• He has not played Bay Hill a ton in his career, but he finished T15 here last year.
• He was outstanding from tee to green last week in the 1st, 2nd, and final rounds and a disaster on Saturday.
• I think he is worth going back to at this price this week.

 

Corey Conners, $6,900

• I consider the start of Conner’s season when the Florida swing begins.  It has been a quiet 2026 so far, but now is when he shines.
• The last five years here he has gone 3rd, T11, T21, T18, and 3rd last year.
• He gains .62 total strokes on comp courses and is a bit better on bermuda.
• Conners ranks 3rd on the odds vs daily pricing tool this week at +6

 

Ryan Fox, $6,700

• A couple of T24 finishes at Pebble and TPC Scottsdale, then he popped at Riviera with a T7.
• Fox is a much better putter on bermuda (+.406 vs -.049) and gains 1.075 total strokes on comp courses.
• He has just one appearance here in his career in which he finished T14 in 2023.
• Long off the tee and the recent stats look pretty good.

 

A few low cost/low owned guys I will own at 10% or less:

Keith Mitchell, $6,900

Sahith Theegala, $6,800

Taylor Moore, $6,400