GPP Strategy and Summary for 2018 – Part II

In our first installment on GPP strategy, I began to outline some of the ideas that Jeff and I have covered extensively over the last few years, but never really focus on all at one time. We heard so much noise and debate about lineup construction when we initially started FGI and even now from time to time, that we thought it was important to go through each year and to dig into the data to see what the numbers can tell us in terms of how winning lineups are built and if there are any sort of patterns that stand out over a season.

For the last four seasons, we have started to track the data to see what types of lineups tend to win GPP events of various sizes. Our belief from the outset has always been that there is an art to lineup construction that is underappreciated and only understood by a handful of players throughout the industry. Our instincts were pretty clear on the matter. In cash games, you want to try to minimize risk. There is no extra value gained between being at the top of the field or from just barely cashing so it does not make a whole lot of sense to think outside the box in owning those players that are only owned by 0-3% of the field for a given week. When you are right, it is simply another player through the cut, but when you are wrong, you are punished to a much greater degree as only you, and a small handful of others are hurt. That is the biggest reason why using the chalk plays is less of a risk. If 40% of players are on a golfer that misses the cut, then it does not necessarily wipe out your chances of winning for a given week.

On the flip side, in GPP play, where only about 20% of the field will cash and where most of the prize money is concentrated in the top few places, it is not only important, but essential to take chances on players that are owned by a smaller percentage of the field. In these events, when that same player who is owned by 40% of the field misses the cut, your team has a much lower likelihood of cashing and no chance of winning. The point here is that conformity does not necessarily hurt you in cash games, but too much of it will make you a losing player in GPP events.

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