FGI Weekly Betting Picks – Wells Fargo Championship
FGI Weekly Betting Picks – Wells Fargo Championship
Jeff Bergerson (4 Winners, Luke List 90-1 Farmers, Tom Hoge 66-1 Pebble Beach, Scottie Scheffler 30-1 WMPO, Sam Burns 25-1 Valspar)
Tony Finau, 22-1. If last week was an early indication that Finau is returning to form, then it is best we get aboard early. The tee to green game has been outstanding (7th in SG:T2G and 4th in SG:APP), and now he gets back to bentgrass greens where he has always been better (+.228). I locked this in on Bovada today.
Keegan Bradley, 33-1. Strong form coming in with three Top 15s in his last five events played. Tee to green stats are strong as usual and the putter has not been nearly as bad for him recently. He finished T5 on this course in 2017 for the Quicken Loans. Historically a better putter on bentgrass greens (+.205) Hasn’t won since 2018, so certainly overdue. This price is similar at most books.
Keith Mitchell, 50-1. I have been onboard with Mitchell pretty much all year in DFS and he has paid off nicely. Seven Top 15 finishes since the fall season and coming off a T13 at TPC Sawgrass. Outstanding off the tee and although I normally like him more on bermuda greens, the splits are not that different. You cannot go wrong betting on strong form.
Adam Long, 80-1. I owned a lot of him last week at 100-1 and there were a couple of times I thought he had a chance. Ultimately, he fell back each time and finished T15. He also finished T12 at Harbourtown three weeks ago. He is doing it with his all-around game lately (24th in SG:T2G, 12th in SG:OTT, and 33rd in SG:P over his last 16 rounds).
Brandon Wu, 80-1. We had seen signs of a breakout leading into last week and we got that with a runner-up finish. That makes two Top 5 finishes in his last four events. We know how talented this young guy is and he seems to have connected the dots how to translate it to the PGA Tour. I would suspect the 80-1 prices will disappear with another performance or two like last week. Let’s see if he can keep it up this week for a nice price.
Greyson Sigg, 125-1. Puling the trigger on this super long one again this week. I like what I have seen from him recently and worth a couple bucks.
Erik Dantoft (3 Winners, Hideki Matsuyama 16-1 ZOZO, Cam Smith 22-1 TOC, Scottie Scheffler 30-1 WMPO)
Recommended Bets for the Wells Fargo Championship:
To Win Outright (Odds via @DKSportsbook)
Keegan Bradley – 28/1: Keegan Bradley should be a serious threat to win the Wells Fargo Championship after a T8 finish at the Valero Texas Open last time out. Not long before that he finished in solo 5th place at THE PLAYERS Championship. He made the trip to Potomac, Maryland back in 2017 for the Quicken Loans National and showed then how well TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm suits his game with a T5 finish. If Bradley gets his tee-to-green game working early again and holes a few putts, then it should surprise no one if he is in contention come Sunday afternoon.
Sergio Garcia – 35/1: Sergio Garcia will look to keep his good form going at the Wells Fargo Championship after a strong start to his 2022 PGA TOUR season by making four of four cuts so far with a T23 finish coming last time out at the Masters. He should quickly figure out TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm where quality ball-striking is rewarded. Garcia’s tee-to-green game is one of the better ones this week in Potomac, Maryland and if his flat stick also behaves, then winning the Wells Fargo Championship should be well within reach.
Joel Dahmen – 60/1: Joel Dahmen must be respected to go well at the Wells Fargo Championship this week. He is coming off a successful outing at the RBC Heritage last time out where he finished T12. A T39 finish at the Valspar Championship and a T33 finish at THE PLAYERS Championship also shows that Dahmen’s game is in good shape right now. He is also extremely comfortable golfing at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm this week as evidenced by his T23 finish at the 2018 Quicken Loans National. All Dahmen needs is for his normally reliable tee-to-green game to show up and if he also has a great putting week, then he should be in the mix once again in Potomac, Maryland.
C.T. Pan – 80/1: C.T. Pan seems slightly underestimated at the Wells Fargo Championship after a T29 finish at the Mexico Open at Vidanta last week. Prior to that he made the cut at the RBC Heritage, the Valero Texas Open and the Valspar Championship where it was his putter letting him down. The 2017 and 2018 leaderboards of the Quicken Loans National when played at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm showed that you do not need to be a great putter to be in the mix here. Pan proved that back in 2018 when he relied on his tee-to-green game and finished T17. A similar effort seems reasonable this time around as well and if his flat stick also carries its weight, then Pan offers some of the most value after the bigger names at the top of the market to be in the mix at the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship.
Nikolai Lazar (4 Winners, Sungjae Im 28-1 Shriners, Cam Smith 22-1 TOC, Joaquin Niemann 60-1 Genesis Invitational, Wu Ashun 55-1 Kenya Open, Shaun Norris 90-1 Steyn City)
Zach Turcotte (2 Winners, Scottie Scheffler 30-1 WMPO, Scottie Scheffler 28-1 The Masters)
Keegan Bradley 33-1 – Keegan is one of the top ballstrikers on tour and comes into the week in great form. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in SGTG among this field and is 9th in SGTOT. While he is still on the negative side of SGP during that time, he’s been better this season overall compared to how miserable he’s been with the flat stick over the years. He has three Top-10 finishes in his last five starts and finished 5th at this course back in 2017.
Cam Young 40-1 – Outside of stumbles at Augusta and TPC Sawgrass, Young has been in great form making the cut in eight of his last ten starts including six finishes of 26th or better and two Top-5 finishes. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks 1st among this field in both SGTG and SGTOT. There really has not been a weak part of his game over the last few months and has even fared well against some tougher fields. It is only a matter of time before he breaks through for his first win on tour.
Max Homa 45-1 – It might be Max Homa chalk week. He’s a little too cheap relative to the way he’s play this season. He’s missed only two cuts in thirteen starts this season, has seven Top-25 finishes and a win. He’s an excellent ballstriker with reasonable accuracy off the tee and solid approach work from the key ranges we are interested in this week. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks 16th in SGTG and 7th in SGTOT. He’s not as good on bentgrass as other surfaces, but with scoring being at a premium, I am not as worried about him needing to be a birdie machine.
Matt Kuchar 50-1 – We are not getting away from Matt Kuchar quite yet. If it is a Par 70 course with tight fairways where a great short game can put him in play and he’s made his name at these types of tracks throughout his career. Even when he has not been at his best, he’s still managed to have success in similar events and has gained an average of a stroke per round on comp courses throughout his career. He enters the week on fire with a 16th place finish at the Valspar, 2nd at Valero and 3rd at the RBC Heritage. He ranks 1st in SGATG and SGP over the last twelves rounds and has missed only three cuts this season.
Brian Harman 66-1 – After a less than spectacular fall, Harman has settled down in 2022 making eight of ten cuts and getting back on track and playing much more like the cut maker he has been for us the last couple of seasons. He’s accurate off the tee, has played well this season on approach shots from beyond 175 yards and can still putt well. He has two Top-5 finishes this year and his tee to green play is in good shape. He ranks 20th among the field over the last 24 rounds in SGTG and 12th in SGTOT. He finished 8th and 23rd the last two years at Colonial, our closest comp course which should help him to handle the challenges of TPC Potomac.
Joel Dahman 66-1 – The man in the bucket hat is here this week and he’s one of my favorite cash game options. Like several other already mentioned, he’s very accurate off the tee and ranks 7th on tour this season in GIR%. He’s made thirteen of sixteen cuts this season and most recently finished 12th at Harbour Town. His short game has been a little lacking this season, but his game sets up well to get him to the weekend where in a field this soft, anything can happen.
Sprinkle Plays
Brandon Wu 80-1
Matthew NeSmith 80-1
Matthias Schwab 90-1
Nate Lashley 125-1
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