FantasyAces Tournament Preview – Greenbrier Classic

Greenbrier Classic, 7/2/15-7/6/15
By Roger Casey

 

RECAP

Well, THAT was certainly interesting. And if you bought any Russell Knox, Justin Thomas, Jerry Kelly, Brendon De Jonge, Louis Oosthuizen, or *sigh* Kevin Na, Vijay Singh, Stewart Cink, or Patrick Reed, you probably were not the happiest camper. Not to mention the fact that you might have missed out on 10 extra FA points because Mr. Watson showed up and won the whole thing. But, hopefully, you diversified your lineups enough to mitigate some of the variance that is PGA DFS and threw in some Sergio, Ken Duke, Chris Stroud, Patrick Rodgers, and Harris English.

The real takeaway here is cut line variance. When you have a tournament playing easy enough to move a cut to a better score than E, it is highly likely that you are going to see some major field “favorites” underperform and MC. Why? Because, for all of you that play golf, you know that -1 is really *not* that bad of a score, and when any Tom, Dick, or Harry can go out there and shoot a 66 on a course (rather “flat” distribution of performance vs. salary for you stat nuts out there), this is just going to happen a higher percentage of the time.

The moral of the story regarding draft strategy is to always take into account course difficulty when creating a draft strategy. You can be very, very risk tolerant in lower-scoring tournaments because scrubs have a better chance of performing than usual on easier courses, so guys that you might normally call pure dice-rolls week-to-week (think Harman, Pettersson, Van Pelt, Donald, and the rest of the scrub-filled top 20 of the Travelers) have the potential to be much higher value, particularly if the field is still trying to draft safe with Russell Knox and Justin Thomas. Anyhow, onward and upward!

OVERVIEW

The Course:

Old White at the Greenbrier Resort (I’ve played there many times, it’s gorgeous!)
Par 70
7,287 (longer than Travelers, but not by much)
o Two par 5s, four par 3s
• Location – White Sulphur Springs, WV
• Forecast – Mid-high 70s, 50% chance of rain every day as of 6/30 (sigh…)

Scoring Expectation – Historically higher than Travelers
o -16 in 2014
o -13 in 2013
o -16 in 2012
o -10 in 2011
o -22 (!) in 2010

Cut Expectation – Slightly under par
o E in 2014
o -1 in 2013
o -1 in 2012
o +1 in 2011
o -2 in 2010

Past Champions in Field

o Angel Cabrera (2014)
o Jonas Blixt (2013)
o Scott Stallings (2010)

KEY STAT ANALYSIS
• STILL IMPORTANT – GREENS HIT!
o Just like last week, guys who crushed this event have been near the top of the field for the week in GIR%.
• IMPORTANT – Strokes Gained: Tee-Green
o This is probably never going to move – generally speaking, on courses that are super easy to putt (e.g. Old White), this stat shall reign supreme.
• IMPORTANT – Par 4 Scoring
o Any time we’re playing a par 70 course with only two par 5s, we have to love this stat as a great predictor of success.
• NOT SO IMPORTANT – Strokes Gained: Putting
o An easy course to putt. This is the week where guys like Cabrera, Stallings, Blixt, and others off in the deep space of SG:P can flourish.

FANTASYACES DRAFT STRATEGY
FantasyAces PGA scoring will force us to shift our strategy from other PGA DFS sites quite dramatically. The system is as follows:

• DblEag = 8.00
• Eag = 5.00
• Brd = 3.00
• Par = 1.00
• Bog = -0.50
• DblBog = -2.00
• DblBogPlus = -4.00
• Win = 10.00

Notice a few things a bit different than what you’ve seen elsewhere? Here are the variables changed and implications.

Variable: Only the winner gets position points. This scoring system makes zero distinction between the guy who is 2nd and 72nd. While other sites like DK award a whopping thirty points for the win, FantasyAces only awards ten, and nothing else to anyone else.

Variable: Hole-by-hole scoring is somewhat different. A double will erase two pars or 2/3 of a birdie, a triple will erase a birdie and a par. Eagles aren’t quite as strong, and pars are a little stronger.

Implication: Far more aggressive drafting strategy. By aggressive, I mean you want the guys who are putting up crazy amounts high-variance scoring with birdies and bogeys. Your steady-eddie par-machine may get an additional half point per par, but that birdie-minus-bogey 2.5 net points is worth a whole lot more without position bonus.

Implication: MC is not quite as punitive. If no position points are awarded except for the winner, then everything is decided by hole-by-hole performance. On a high-scoring track, an MC can still crush you with all of the birdies, but you should still be able to have a reasonably good week without getting all six through if your MCs make a bunch of birdies and bogeys.

Overall: Be Risk Tolerant. This scoring system will reward players for aggression with drafting strategy in both cash and GPP formats. We can’t be as comfortable picking our lock made cut and T60 here as usual, so we need to be somewhat more risk tolerant than usual. Yes, getting six through will still be valuable and much preferred, but particularly in cash games, you’re going to have to roll the dice a bit.

GREENBRIER DRAFT STRATEGY
It’s rare that you get two events that are likely to play so similarly from week to week, but here they are. You need to be very aggressive this week. There are not a huge number of big names in this field, and there is just a treasure trove of value all over the place in terms of pricing, so don’t be afraid to swallow your puke and play some names that would otherwise be anathema – who the hell was Jonas Blixt before he shipped this in 2013?

Additionally, though I’m a big advocate of a “core” strategy – choosing about 3-4 guys who are your absolute favorites and playing them in an “open parlay” wheel where you have some combination of 2-3 of them in nearly every lineup – I might be a little bit more inclined to roll the “shotgun blast” this week, with possibly 1-2 core guys and then a smattering of studs and heresy plays. Why? Well, it’s super hard to build a core out of incredibly risky plays without the possibility of just having your week ruined, so that idea is out. Yet it’s also just brutally punitive to miss (or lord help you, WD) with a highly-owned core player. The cut line could very well be under par again this week, so prepare for scrubs to possibly do a Riverdance on your field favorites and diversify good and plenty.

THE PICKS:

THE (SOMEWHAT) OBVIOUS

• Bubba Watson ($7,200)

SIGH. In all honesty, I played Bubba a little more on DK than on FA (0% exposure, hah) with the hope of getting rewarded with a big time performance, and lo and behold, the highest-priced player and favorite wins for once. Who knew. Well, fade no more – if Bubba is in form, he’s an animal, and this animal can win any week, particularly in a week where you can balance him with some great options lower on the price scale.

• PROS
o 5th in SG:T-G
o 18th (!) in SG:P (not that it matters too much here, but dear lord… if he can putt)
o 6th in Scrambling
o 46th in Par 4 scoring avg
o Owns a vacation home here and appears in numerous, annoying commercials to tell us about it
o Never missed a cut here and only missed the cut at Chambers Bay this year, which can be forgiven when you win the next week. 

• CONS
o Doesn’t hit as many greens as we’d like – 101st in GIR%
o Has not cracked the top 10 here in two years. Don’t let that stop you though.
o In addition to most of the living, your deceased ancestors will own him from the grave this week.

• Bill Haas ($5,950)

It’s okay Bill, I forgive you for burning me at Chambers Bay because you are just so sickly solid at Old White that you couldn’t possibly do the same to me again, right? No, seriously, he could, but if history serves, he probably won’t. Bill Haas has not missed consecutive cuts since 2013, and he’s about as steady as they come for all intents and purposes. Pick him with reckless abandon in all formats.

• PROS
o 42nd in GIR%
o 31st in SG:T-G
o 30th in Par 4 Scoring
o 4/4 in cuts made here with a runner-up finish in 2011

• CONS
o Not the longest off the tee (100th driving distance) but generally accurate and can get around this course well.
o Putting has been in a bit of a funk this year, but that only makes Old White a better spot for Haas to show up.
o Should be extremely popular in both cash and GPP formats.

• Patrick Reed ($6,400)

So what do we do, ladies and gents, when Patrick Reed fails the field because he’s an erratic, risky GPP play with the capacity to win or defecate himself from week to week? We play him again, because he’s a filthy, egotistical animal who probably believes that he deserves to win this week… and might be correct. Patrick Reed is like a giant neon sign this week shouting LOW-OWNED CONTRARIAN PLAY – BUY ME PLEASE and you must oblige him.

• PROS
o 32nd in SG:T-G
o 25th in SGP
o 27th in Scrambling
o 22nd in Par 4 Scoring
o Five straight made cuts until Travelers, which only will boost his value potential
o Absolutely explosive potential as a player and is only getting better – poor past performances at events are hardly indicative of Reed’s ability to succeed.

• CONS
o A little erratic off the tee (170th in Total Driving), and not the most accurate off the fairway (128th).
o 1/2 in made cuts at Old White with an MC last week

Honorable Mentions (mix into your lineups)
• J.B. Holmes ($6,300) – Could’ve made the main article, but for $6,300 he needs to perform exceptionally well here. Superb scoring potential and has been on fire this season.
• Webb Simpson ($6,550) – Usually steady as they come and great track record here given how forgiving he is on the putter. Has shown some unfortunate blow-up potential this year though.
• Louis Oosthuizen ($6,200) – Another excellent contrarian play. If we can see just a hint of his Chambers Bay performance, he’s nasty.

THE VALUE

• Kevin Kisner ($5,850)

We start this week out with a different (and hopefully more productive) Kevin – Mr. Kisner. There is no golfer on tour playing quite as well as Kevin Kisner right now. He’s an animal, folks, and don’t let his 0/3 record here do anything but encourage you to buy where the field sells. This guy is nasty, and I’m willing to rock him in Cash or GPP all day long.

• PROS
o 45th in SG:T-G
o 68th in GIR%
o 14th in Scrambling
o 30th in Par 4 Scoring
o Allow me to list his last seven starts for you – T12 (US Open), T8 (Memorial), T5 (Crowne), T38 (WF), T2 (Players), T28 (Zurich), 2 (RBC). Need I say more?

• CONS
o Awful course history. No way around it. 0/3 in made cuts here.
o A little expensive for a guy who has been this poor here, but that might work in your favor.
o Tough to tell how much he’ll be owned with the CH downside.

• Kevin Na ($5,750)

Hah! I got you! You thought I wasn’t going to pull the trigger on this guy this week, but I did! There’s nothing I could say about Na this week that doesn’t apply from last week except that this week, there are some grumpy grouchy folks that will fade him to your benefit. Having an incredible year with a solid 3/3 made cuts here. Pick with confidence across the board.

• PROS
o 17th in SG:T-G
o 36th in Scrambling
o 30th in Par 4 Scoring
o Was absolutely on fire up until the US Open/Travelers. What do you think the odds are that he misses three straight cuts? 

• CONS
o Short and a little erratic off the tee
o Could be the most popular “contrarian” (if you can call him that) play this week.
o Does not hit nearly as many greens as we’d like (113th) but at 3/3 made cuts, he can get around here it seems.

• Brendon Todd ($5,650)

Well, when life gives you lemonade… you just drink it, right? I’m probably most proud of my Todd pick last week as the dude came to life as expected on a course that favored him despite a very poor track record. He is a much better golfer this year than in years past. Old White should be no different. The only difference is that he’s actually had success here, and you should play him across all formats with major confidence.

• PROS
o 43rd in SG:T-G
o 13th in SGP (jumped 10 spots from last week, there’ s my homeboy!)
o 18th in Scrambling
o Reasonably strong in GIR% and Par 4 Scoring (top 100)
o 14/18 in cuts made this year with a stout T15 last week
o 2/2 at Old White with a T4 last year

• CONS
o Could be higher owned this week with his strong play and track record here
o Has the potential to be rather inconsistent, and we’d like his GIR% and Par 4 numbers to be higher… but hey, his price didn’t exactly jump much.

Honorable Mentions (mix into your lineups)
• Russell Henley ($5,500) – Has been a little off his game as of late, but he can catch fire at any time and shouldn’t be too heavily owned
• Will Wilcox ($4,500) – Great contrarian play and exceptional value at $4,500. Lots were disappointed by his MC last week but he’s having a solid year and had a nice T4 last year here.
• Scott Stallings ($3,750) – Always a hold-your-vomit-down DFS play, not a great statistical play and can MC any given week. However, loves Old White with 4/4 made cuts and is a past champ here. Tends to perform well on courses he loves too (won and finished runner-up at Torrey Pines consecutively!)

THE SCRUBS AND SLEEPERS
• John Peterson ($3,650)

Looking for an affordable made cut, ladies and gents? Look no further than PGA DFS’s Twitter hero with his cheeky commentary and incredibly consistent play. Peterson is 17/19 in made cuts this year and, while he hit a little rough patch at Crowne and Memorial, is such a bargain at $3,650 that you can afford to take the risk particularly in FA where there’s no distinction made between Peterson’s typical T45 and the runner up. Play him with confidence in cash, though he’s a little conservative for GPPs.

• PROS
o 44th in GIR%
o 50th in SG:T-G
o 33rd in Total Driving
o 17/19 in cuts made this year
o Coming off of a fresh Peterson signature T48 finish at Travelers (he made an eagle though!)
o You’ll be personally rooting for one of the most likeable golfers on tour

• CONS
o Not a great putter, but we really don’t care much about that at Old White
o Pretty low-ceiling play with no top 10s this year
o Missed cut here last year

• Fabian Gomez ($3,900)

Be sure to visit Greenbrier’s wonderful casino during your stay to roll some dice and play Fabian Gomez in your LUs! A now-distant memory, Gomez slaughtered the field at St. Jude to bag his first tour victory, and it was pretty fun to watch him drop a nice 30-footer on 18 to do it in style. A phenomenal GPP gamble likely to be thinly-owned but clearly with the potential to crush it if he gets the ball rolling.

• PROS
o Top 100 in SG:T-G, GIR%, Par 4 Scoring, and Scrambling
o 12/17 in made cuts this year with his nice win at St. Jude
o 2/2 in made cuts here, no good finishes but we’re betting on his form and improvement, not his history
o Almost certainly low-owned

• CONS
o Massively risky, can clearly win or MC whenever
o Not very strong off the tee in distance or accuracy (if it rains, this will only become more pronounced)

• James Hahn ($3,350)

Our favorite former shoe-salesman and underdog Riviera winner finds my list today as another nice low-owned but extremely cheap value play because we know he’s got the potential to come out and get it done. He’s 2/2 here with rather poor results, but we don’t care too much at $3,350 and are hoping for another amazing, explosive finish out of him. GPP only!

• PROS
o Top 100ish in SG:T-G, GIR%, Par 4 Scoring, and Scrambling
o 5/6 made cuts in his last six events, no great results but come onnn big bucks
o Guessing less than 3% ownership in most GPPs

• CONS
o Not exactly a statistical stud
o Finished absolutely dead last among made cuts last year at Old White (hey, better than an MC when you’re getting a point per par!)
o Streaky and erratic, but that’s what we’re betting on.

Honorable Mentions (mix into your lineups)
• Jonas Blixt ($4,100) – Does lightning strike the same spot twice? Who knows, but we can stomach a little risk from Mr. Blixt in a couple GPP LUs considering he’s a past champ and 2/2 made cuts here.
• Ken Duke ($3,600) – Oldie but goodie. Made his last four consecutive cuts with a nice top 10 at Travelers, continue to buy in GPP as a form play with confidence.
• Scott Brown ($3,800) – If they want to keep selling him this low, I’ll keep buying him. Another solid performance at Travelers and he’s now 10/11 made cuts over that stretch.

Thanks for reading, and good luck to all of you from all of us at FGI!