Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- Zurich Classic of New Orleans

This week the PGA Tour heads to The Big Easy, New Orleans Louisiana and the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. The tournament has been played at various locations since its inception in 1938, but it began being played at the TPC of Louisiana in Avondale in 2005. Damage from Hurricane Katrina forced the event to move to English Turn Golf and Country Club in 2006, but returned to TPC Louisiana in 2007 and has been there since. After a week off last week from a course favoring distance, The TPC Louisiana is a Par 72 and is 7,425 yards long (over 300 yards longer than Harbour Town was last week for the RBC Heritage). Its length is very similar to Augusta, Redstone Golf Club (Shell Houston Open), and Bay Hill (Arnold Palmer Classic) in which the Tour visited over the past month. The course features four Par 5s and four Par 3s.

The last three years the winner of this tournament has been at 19 or 20 under par as the course is usually one of the easiest on tour. Because of this we are looking for scorers this week, especially par 4 scoring, those guys that can put up low numbers. There is a lot of wetlands and over 100 bunkers, and some trees, although nowhere near last week at Harbour Town. Greens in regulation and driving accuracy are not as important as they were last week. Driving distance will be an important stat we will be looking at closely this week as well.

The field this week is not spectacular, but has 5 of the Top 20 players in the world, including Jason Day, Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler, and Dustin Johnson. Steve Stricker will make his second appearance of 2015. One of Fantasy Golf Insider’s favorite players, John Peterson is playing in the town where he played his college golf (LSU).

Last year Seung-Yul Noh won his first PGA Tour event. First time winners have been frequent at the Zurich Classic winning seven of the past ten years, including the last three (Billy Horschel in 2013 and Jason Dufner in 2012). Noh went bogey-free until the final round, when an opening bogey helped Keegan Bradley to briefly pull even. Bradley, though, soon fell off the pace with a triple-bogey on the 6th hole. Andrew Svoboda and Robert Streb tied for second.

Last week was a good, but not great week for our recommendations. Jordan Spieth was fine, but did not play up to his ability and ended T11. We warned that he might be a bit rusty, and he sure was on Day 1, but he roared back on Day 2 and climbed into contention. The biggest disappointment for the week for us was Patrick Reed. He was 2 under par on day 1 going into the 18th hole and shanked his drive out of bounds and ended with a double bogey. Reed never seemed to be able to recover from that and missed the cut. Our value plays proved really nice as five of six made the cut with de Jonge (T18), Kokrak (T18), Knox (T18), Streelman (T55), and Summerhays (T60). Charles Howell let us down with a rare missed cut. The only sleeper that did well for us was Stewart Cink who easily outperformed his price with a T31.

We promise that we will continue to out-work everybody in the industry to make our members successful and profitable in season long and daily fantasy golf. If there is anything that you would like to see us do or offer to our members, let us know and we will try to make it happen. As always, stick to solid lineup building, diversification, smart game selection, and disciplined bankroll management. See: How to win playing daily fantasy golf.

A key factor that we analyze every week is Tournament History. A couple of the players that stand out this week include Justin Rose and Steve Stricker. Check out our Tournament History page to see exactly who has had success in the past at TPC Louisiana and the Zurich Classic.

For those of you who play Daily Fantasy Golf (DFS), every once in a while the pricing on Draftkings is a bit wacky, and this is one of those weeks. We have contacted Draftkings several times trying to understand the model they use to determine pricing, but they will not release that information. Generally, we have found that they are close to the sportsbook odds, with maybe 10-12 mis-priced players each week that present us value. Last week the top values according to our sportsbook vs. daily pricing tool were Brendon Todd, who ended up finishing T4, Lucas Glover (T18), Ben Martin (T37), Zac Blair (T44), and Vijay Singh (T51). When you can identify great value and have them perform well, it gives you such a tremendous advantage in cash games and GPPs alike. This week however there is a tremendous amount of discrepancy between the sportsbook odds and Draftkings Pricing. We are not sure if this was a mistake on their part or if they have changed up their pricing model. At any rate, this presents us and our premium members with an unbelievable opportunity as they blatantly mispriced a lot of players and some by as much as $1,200. We will discuss this further below and point out those players that we will want to target this week in our section for premium members.

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As we mentioned above, this is a strange week for Draftkings pricing. Whether it is a mistake on their part or a change in their model, the bottom line is the differential between the sportsbook odds this week and Draftkings pricing is insane. On a normal week, a large differential would be a 10-15 for Draftkings on our sportsbook odds vs daily pricing tool. What does that mean? It means that if the odds on favorite to win a tournament according to the consensus of the sportsbooks is Rory Mcilroy, but Draftkings has his salary as the 6th most expensive golfer, you are receiving value, so his score would be +5. In contrast, if the sportsbook odds determined Billy Horschel as having the 20th best odds to win a tournament, yet a daily site priced him with the 5th highest salary you would be receiving negative value or a score of -15. This is just an example, because the top priced guys never differ very much from the sportsbook odds, but it is rather the middle to lower tier guys.  This week there are some unbelievable differentials and we are going to point those out to our premium members, so you can capitalize and crush this weekend. Cash games are where you will receive most of the benefit because that is where you want to maximize value and build a roster with the most guys that outperform their price as possible. Here is what we are talking about: This week Robert Streb is listed as the player who is 33rd most likely to win the tournament according to the consensus of 10 different sportsbooks. However he is priced at $6,200, which is the 74th priced player according to the Draftkings pricing, a value of +41! In terms of salary cap dollars, the 33rd priced player on Draftkings this week is Bo Van Pelt at $7,300. That is a difference of $1,100 in salary cap! That is unbelievable, and we have only seen that twice before in the last couple of years. Here is another example: Tony Finau according to the Sportsbooks is the 67th most likely player to win this weekend, but he is priced at 130th on Draftkings at $5,100, a differential of +61. The 67th most expensive player is Greg Owen at $6,300, a difference of $1,200. That is nuts. Below are some other players that are incredibly underpriced on Draftkings in comparison to the sportsbook odds this week. Now, here is the disclaimer. Just because these guys are underpriced, does not mean that they are going to perform. Robert Streb could come out and play terribly and miss the cut. In that instance it does not matter if his price was $4,000. The mispricing does not necessarily guarantee that these players will play well. So how do you use this information? You use a variety of lineups incorporating severalof these underpriced players that also check out with our other metrics, like tournament history and current form. For instance Marc Leishman is +41, but his current form is lousy, so we might mix him in just because of the outstanding value, but we are certainly not going to go crazy on him. Be sure to not use the same guys on every lineup, but rather choose several different, mix and match, and diversify the risk.

Jhonattan Vegas +55
David Hearn +53
John Merrick +50
Michael Thompson +55

For the complete list of every player in the field go to our sportsbook vs daily pricing page.

 

Top Stud Picks:

 

Dustin Johnson- We can hardly contain our enthusiasm for where Dustin Johnson’s game is right now. It is evident that Johnson has gotten his head straightened out, which has always been the one thing standing between him and being one of the elite players on tour. In his appearances since returning from his long layoff Johnson is White Hot and has a T4 at Pebble Beach, 2nd at Northern Trust, MC @Honda, win at WGC Cadillac, T6 at Valero, and T6 at The Masters. His length will come in huge at this course and his ability to put up really low numbers gives him a great opportunity for a Top 5 finish. This is Johnson’s first appearance at TPC Louisiana, which is a negative, but not nearly enough of a negative to avoid him. For you DFS players, Johnson becomes an even more valuable player, because of his ability to birdie and eagle holes. This is such an overlooked factor by most DFS players, but is extremely important. On Draftkings for example, birdies receive 3 points and eagles receive 8 points. In comparison, a bogey only has .5 points subtracted and double bogeys -1. So you would much rather have a player that alternates birdie-bogey every other hole than one who has pars every hole (par receives .5 points) to rack up points. Johnson is a perfect example of this type of player. He actually had 3 eagles in his Saturday round of the Masters, which alone accumulated 24 points from 3 holes. In comparison a first place finish in the tournament receives 30 points. This illustrates the importance of choosing a player that has the capability of frequently putting up birdies and eagles even if it means he is prone to more bogies. Johnson is not only a great play for DFS, but is also a great fit for season long leagues. He is ranked 1st in driving distance, 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, and 5th in Total Strokes Gained. Take advantage of the zone he is in and choose him this week. (Mostly GPP, but also could be a decent cash game option)

Justin Rose- The fall season was typical Justin Rose as his highlights included a runner-up finish at the DP World Championship, T4 at the BMW Masters, a T6 at the Hero World Challenge, T12 in Abu Dhabi, and T13 at the Qatar Masters. Then Rose came over to the PGA tour and looked miserable, as he missed the cut in his first two events (Farmers and Honda Classic). Then he was only able to muster a 55th (in a 70 player field) at the WGC Cadillac, missed the cut at Valspar and T37 at the Shell Houston Open. Rose’s woes were apparently due to a nagging wrist injury. Then miraculously he healed and his old form surfaced at the Masters and Rose put up rounds of 67, 70, 67, and 70 to finish runner up. In the past three years in this tournament Rose has finished 8th last year, in 2013 he finished 15th, and in 2012 he finished 10th. His statistics outside of driving distance (ranks 39th) frankly stink. Last year Rose finished 4th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green and 6th in Total Strokes Gained. So far this season, he ranks 92nd in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green and 146th in Total Strokes Gained. We are going to go with the idea that his wrist was the reason he stunk early on this season and that it healed and now he is back to his normal Top 10 in the World self. (GPP)

Rickie Fowler- Call it a gut feeling, but we think Rickie is going to break through one of these weeks and win a PGA event. Is this the week? He has been playing steady, but not outstanding as he has made eight of eight cuts this season, with three Top 25s, and a 3rd at the WGC HSBC. He looked really good in his last round of golf, which was at The Masters where he fired a 67 in route to a T12. We featured Rickie in our Fantasy Golf Crystal Ball article prior to the season and predicted he would win an event this season (we also predicted Spieth would win a couple including a major). As you know, Rickie had Top 5 finishes in every major last year so we know he has the talent. Statistically he has not been great this year ranking 80th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green and 98th in Total Strokes Gained. He missed the cut at Zurich last year, but prior to that he had a 32nd, 10th, and 26th. What we like best about Rickie in DFS, especially Draftkings is his ability to rack up points with birdies and eagles, much like Dustin Johnson. Even if he places in the 20s or 30s he typically racks up enough big points via birdies and eagles to put him in the Top 10 in scoring on Draftkings. If he is able to land in the Top 5 he will produce mega points. (GPP and Cash games)

We also really like Jason Day this week, but Zach Turcotte, will talk about him extensively in his Daily Spin Article, which comes out on Wednesday.

 

Top Value Plays:

 

Harris English- Three missed cuts this season, but two of them were in the fall, so in the New Year, English has made all but 1 cut, and has 3 Top 10s. He lost in a playoff at Farmers and took 3rd at the Sony Open. He did not play at Zurich last year, but he did in 2013 and took 6th. His statistics are very good this year as he ranks 27th in driving distance, 48th in greens in regulation, 46th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 18th in Strokes Gained Putting, and 20th in Total Strokes Gained. We are not thrilled with his price in DFS, as it seems a bit steep, so keep that in mind when you are building your rosters. We really like his chances of another Top 10 this week. (Mostly GPP because of his price, but we are not against using him in cash)

Brendan Steele- Consistency has been the name of the game for Steele this season as he has made the cut in every single one of his 12 events played this year. In addition however he has also put up 6 Top 25 finishes, and two Top 10s, including a runner up finish at Humana (also was played on a couple of easier courses). Steele ranks 15th on the PGA Tour in driving distance, 13th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, and 16th in Total Strokes Gained. He has played in this tournament twice and placed 52nd last year and 32nd in 2013. A player who has been a guaranteed cut maker is a great play alone, but one that has the ability to place in the Top 10 is a wonderful play. (GPP and Cash Game)

Russell Knox- We recommended Knox last week at the RBC Heritage and he performed well with a T18. He is not as consistent as Steele as he has missed 4 cuts in 14 events played. But when he does play well he has the capability of placing high, as he has shown in his four Top 25s including two 3rd place finishes. Knox ranks 22nd in greens in regulation, 50th in Strokes Gained Tee-To–Green, and 39th in Total Strokes Gained. Knox missed the cut here last year, but Seung-Yul Noh missed the cut in 2013 before he won it last year, so that is not a deal breaker. We like his ability to get hot as he did on Friday last week at the RBC Heritage to make an incredible charge with a 7 under 64 and make the cut. (Mostly GPP)

Brendon de Jonge– This will be the third consecutive week (outside of the Masters) that we have recommended de Jonge. In the previous two he had a T5 at the Shell Houston Open and T18 last week at the RBC Heritage, we will take it. He did not play here last year, missed the cut in 2013, 18th in 2012, and 26th in 2011. Before his 5th at Shell he had a MC at Valero, T33 at Valspar, T10 at Puerto Rico, and T25 at Honda. He ranks well in several statistical areas including 50th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 46th in Total Strokes Gained, 37th in Greens in Regulation,  and 29th in Driving Accuracy. We expect another solid performance from De Jonge as he has done quite a bit of this season. (GPP and Cash Game)

Morgan Hoffman- Three straight nice performances for Hoffman with a T9 last week at RBC Heritage, 28th at The Masters, and a 4th at Arnold Palmer. Hoffman has shown glimpses of the ability to explode like last year when he took 3rd at the BMW and T9 at Barclays, but with that came a lot of inconsistency as he missed the cut 12 times in 32 events played. This year he has missed 4 cuts in 12 events played (withdrew at Arnold Palmer, but would have missed the cut after an opening round 80), but has five Top 30s in his last seven events and he is only 25 years old, so maybe he has improved. He has had a couple solid performances in his two appearances at Zurich with a 34th and 21st the last two years. He is a bomber and ranks 31st on the PGA Tour in driving distances, as well as 50th in Total Strokes Gained. For you DFS players, Hoffman is a player who can rack up the points with his ability to accumulate birdies and eagles, which is always good especially this week on the TPC Louisiana course. If he gets hot he can make a run at a Top 5 finish. (Mostly GPP)

John Peterson- We at Fantasy Golf Insider are happy to say that we have been on John Peterson since the fall season, before a lot of people knew who he was. That has paid off handsomely for us and our premium members as he has had a very good season. In 14 events played this year he has made 13 cuts including highlights of a T16 at OHL Classic at Mayakoba and T11 at Valero Texas Open. Having played at LSU in college, he knows the lay of the land at TPC Louisiana. Peterson did miss the cut here last year, but as we have said every time we recommended him, that this is a new year for Peterson and he is not the same player as in the past. He did have an 8th place finish here in 2013 however. He ranks 32nd in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, and 58th in Total Strokes Gained. If he were to improve on his putting, Peterson would be a Top 10 type player on tour. We like the fact that he is playing well, and it is a homecoming for Peterson.  We do not like his price in DFS, and think it is too much, especially for cash games.  Another thing that we do not like is that we believe he will have high ownership in DFS.  So do not overexpose yourself to him this week (Mostly GPP because of price)

We also like Cameron Tringale.

 

Top Sleeper Picks:

 

John Senden- In 2014 Senden put together a really nice season as he made 22 cuts in 27 events played with five Top 10s. 2015 has been different however as he has missed the cut in four out of his last six tournaments. We are not ready to completely give up on him yet as TPC Louisiana has been a place where he has consistently played well over his career. He has made the cut here in 6 of his past 7 appearances and has two Top 15s in the time. None of his stats really stand out on the page, but he is ranked 32nd in total driving and 77th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green. We are not in love with Senden, but he will fly under the radar this week, which will mean low ownership in DFS and he might surprise some people with a steady Top 30 and outperform his price. (Mostly GPP, but because of his price could be a cut making, salary saving option in DFS. Just do not load up on him in all your cash game lineups, because of his poor recent form)

Lucas Glover- Quiz Time: How many Top 10s does Lucas Glover have at the Zurich Classic in his career? The Answer: 4. For those of you who said that, you know so much about golf that we want to hire you. That is correct, in 9 appearances in the Zurich Classic Glover has 4 Top 10s including a 4th two years ago. His ball striking is absolutely incredible, but his putting is embarrassing. He ranks 4th in greens in regulation, 41st in driving distance, and 12th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green. Unfortunately he ranks 204th in Strokes Gained Putting (actually 1.7 strokes lost putting). On TPC Louisiana he might be able to get away with being a poor putter, like he did last week with some easier type greens at Harbour Town. Last week at the RBC Heritage he took T18, and before that he missed four cuts in his last five events. He is by no means a slam dunk this week, but more of a half-court shot.  (GPP only)

Jason Bohn- When you analyze statistics closely like we do, occasionally certain guys stick out that you would not expect to see amongst the leaders in certain categories. Jason Bohn is one of those players and has some categories that he stands out in like 9th in Par 4 Scoring, 14th in Birdie Average, 23rd in scoring average, and 4th in scoring average (the top 3 are Webb Simpson, Jason Day, and Jordan Spieth). Bohn has had some success at Zurich in the past including a win in 2010. He did not play here last year, took 47th in 2013 and missed the cut in 2012. He has been playing solid most of the 2015 season as he has made 11 of 13 cuts, five Top 25s and two Top 10s, including a runner up at Sanderson Farms in the fall. The only thing we do not like about Bohn is his lack of distance, but you cannot have it all near the bottom of the list of players. He is one of our top sleepers this week and look for him to have a cut made with a legitimate chance of a Top 25. His price in DFS, specifically Draftkings was a shocking $7,900, which we feel as though is too high for cash games and that you can get much better value. (Mostly GPP, but an occasional cash would be fine with his ability to make the cut)

David Hearn- He missed the cut last week at the RBC Heritage, but he did last year as well and bounced back with a T34 at Zurich. As a matter of fact, he missed the MDF cut in 2013 at RBC and turned around and had a T21 at Zurich. Not to beat a dead horse, but he missed the cut at RBC in 2012 and took 24th at Zurich (2 weeks later). What does this tell you? Yes, he can come back from a missed cut at RBC and play well at Zurich, very good you got it. The nice thing is that most others will just look at last week and decide not to pick him this week. His season has not been stellar thus far, but it has not been terrible either. Before last weeks missed cut he had a T25 at Shell, MC at Valero, T43 at Arnold Palmer, and T53 at Valspar. Overall in 2015 he has made 9 cuts in 14 events played including 5 Top 25s. His stats are actually pretty lousy ranking 132nd in Strokes Gained-Tee-To Green, and 95th in Total Strokes Gained. He is definitely not a cash game player for you DFS players, or a guy who we can confidently say will perform great for you, but he is a sleeper and a guy that could very well outperform his price. (GPP only)

Jeff Overton- Now having missed the cut in two straight tournaments, Overton will not be on the tips of most people’s tongues. Last week at RBC Heritage he missed the cut by one stroke by shooting a 75 in the first round, but then fired a 68 in the second round. Before those two missed cuts he had made four consecutive cuts including a T7 at the Honda Classic. He has had a lot of success at Zurich in the past including making six consecutive cuts, four Top 20s, a runner up finish in 2010 and a 4th place finish last year. He currently ranks 54th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 53rd in Total Strokes Gained, and 45th in scoring average. Given that he will not be on a lot of people’s radars we like him as a decent sleeper option this week. (GPP only)

 

Best of luck to all of you this weekend and we look forward to hearing about your continued success!

-Fantasy Golf Insider