Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- Wyndham Championship

OVERVIEW

The final week of the regular PGA Tour season is finally here and the FedEx Cup Playoffs are on the horizon! It’s been a long grind for a lot of our favorite players and some not so favorite. This week we’ve got some bubble boys to discuss, but as usual we’ll lean on course horses and players in form. Last year we saw Tiger Woods contend for three days, a hole in one by Scott Brown and this year’s American Ryder Cup Captain Davis Love III hoist the trophy on Sunday afternoon after shooting the second best round of the day (Spencer Levin shot 63, Love shot 64). The greens speed up this week and we’re back on Bermuda grass so make sure you take note and look to your favorite “Bermuda putters” to return to glory here. Speaking of the greens, they’re big & have some decent undulations to them, proximity to the hole will be important to ensure they’re not putting through various breaks. Brandt Snedeker, Webb Simpson, & Bill Haas have all had good success over the course of their careers here and I don’t expect that to change this week. There’s only two par 5’s on the course this week, but you absolutely have to score on them or you’ll get lapped by the field so I’ll be using all of the scoring to Par statistics this week as opposed to just Par 4 & Par 5 scoring performance/birdies or better.

 

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

• The Course
• Sedgefield Country Club
• Par: 70 (two Par 5’s)
• Yardage: 7,127 yards
• Greens: Bermuda Grass
• Location: Greensboro, NC
• Expected scoring: Could we see another round in the 50’s this week? I wouldn’t bet on it, but there should be plenty of 65’s and a couple outlier sub 65’s out there this week. Expect the winner to come in around -15 or better.  
• Past Champions (dating back to 2009):
• 2015: Davis Love III -17 over Jason Gore [-16]
• 2014: Camilo Villegas -17 over Bill Haas & Freddie Jacobson [-16]
• 2013: Patrick Reed -14 in a playoff over Jordan Spieth
• 2012: Sergio Garcia -18 over Tim Clark [-16]
• 2011: Webb Simpson -18 over George McNeil [-15]
• 2010: Arjun Atwal -20 over David Toms [-19]

 

KEY STATS TO TARGET

• Strong Emphasis – SG: APP, SG:T2G, Par 4 Scoring, Par 5 Scoring, Birdie or Better %, Scrambling
• Important – SG:Putting

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STARS:

Patrick Reed (DK $12,200)

• Course History: 24^th – WIN – 66^th  
• Form: 11^th – 11^th – 13^th – 12^th – 10^th – 52^nd – 39^th – MC – 8^th – 15^th – MC – 28^th
• Stats: 58^th – SG:OTT, 8^th – SG: ARG, 72^nd – SG:P, 32^nd – SG:T2G, 46^th – DD, 51^st – Birdie Avg, 33^rd – Scoring Avg, 114^th – GIR, 28^th – Sandies, 57^th – Rough Prox, 9^th – Prox from 200-225, 41^st – Prox from 75-100, 33^rd – Prox from 50-125, 7^th – Scrambling, 81^st – P3 BoB, 29^th – P5 BoB, 43^rd – BoB %
• Other – America failed to crack the top ten yet again, but he played well enough to backdoor a Top 15 in Rio after three days of mediocre play. He hasn’t lived up to the hype when he’s been amongst the top tier in pricing this year, but you can see he’s doing just enough to give everyone hope that another win is coming. Even though he’s the favorite this week, I think he’ll still garner a decent ownership in GPP’s because of his popularity. I’ll be fading him this week personally, but I don’t have any issues with playing him other than the fact that he’s the most expensive player.

  Jim Furyk (DK $11,000)

• Course History: 9^th (2011)
• Form: 5^th – 73^rd – 13^th – 59^th – 42^nd – 21^st 2^nd – 52^nd – MC – 35^th – MC
• Stats: 54^th – SG:APP, 25^th – SG:ARG, 59^th – SG:P, 180^th – DD, 25^th – DA, 92^nd – GIR, 20^th Scoring Avg, 183^rd – Birdie Avg, 96^th – Sandies, 31^st – Prox from 50-125, 20^th – Prox from 125-150, 20^th – P3 BoB, 184^th – BoB %
• Other – One week removed from his record setting 58 at the Travelers, Furyk will more than likely be a popular play. I love the consistency he brings as a cash game starter, but for GPP’s I’d look to pivot away from Furyk, going up to Hideki (who has a less than stellar record here and disappointed a lot of people last year at this tournament). Furyk has minimal course history here, but I don’t see that being an issue as he’s a seasoned vet who knows how to manage his game regardless of the course.

Brandt Snedeker (DK $9,800)

• Course History: 43^rd – 5^th – MC – 28^th – MC – 8^th – 5^th – 69^th
• Form: 56^th – 5^th – 22^nd – 21^st – MC – 17^th – MC – MC
• Stats: 79^th – SG:OTT, 66^th – SG:APP, 23^rd – SG:ARG, 62^nd – SG:P, 40^th – SG:T2G, 76^th – DD, 122^nd – DA, 107^th – GIR, 38^th – Birdie Avg, 24^th – Scoring Avg, 91^st – Prox from 125-150, 34^th – Prox from 50-125, 18^th – Scrambling, 6^th – P4 BoB, 43^rd – BoB %
• Other – As mentioned in the overview, Sneds is a horse for this course having only missed the cut twice in eight tries. His form is somewhat skeptical, but he’s never really been a strong major championship player outside of a few good finishes at the Masters a few years ago. Look for Sneds to continue the trend of playing well on courses he’s familiar with as he did at the RBC Canadian Open.

ALSO CONSIDER – Ryan Moore (DK $10,600) – Normally I wouldn’t suggest playing a player coming off a win, but Moore is a weird one. I wouldn’t look to burn him in one & done’s this week because I don’t think he wins again this week, but you’ve got to like him as a GPP play with low ownership because the general public will fade him coming off the win. He’s a horse here and naturally he had to win last week to throw a wrench in trying to get him at a discount this week. Jon Rahm (DK $10,400) – Rahm looks legit for both cash and GPP’s this week. He’s a solid scorer and bounced back very nicely last week after a very disappointing first round. I really like his aggressive style of play for GPP’s and the fact that his worst finish in seven starts is a 59^th makes me like him a lot as a cash play. Webb Simpson (DK $10,200) – Speaking of course horses on a good run, Webb has a win and three additional Top 10’s here under his belt since 2008. His golf has come around since the birth of his most recent child. You’re probably going to hear a lot of Webb chatter on twitter this week, and even though he seems like a good cash game play, don’t get sucked into this line of thinking. I’m only recommending Webb for GPP’s because the minute you play him in cash, he shoots 77 on course he’s normally lit up over the course of his career.  

 

VALUE PLAYS:

 Jason Dufner (DK $7,900)

• Course History: 51^st – 7^th – MC – 34^th – MC – 26^th
• Form: 60^th – 22^nd – 51^st – 8^th – 33^rd – 6^th – 24^th – 49^th
• Stats: 53^rd – SG:OTT, 21^st – SG:APP, 89^th – SG:ARG, 28^th – SG:T2G, 82^nd – DD, 64^th – DA, 12^th – GIR, 20^th – Birdie Avg, 18^th – Scoring Avg, 53^rd – Prox from 50-125, 14^th – Prox 125-150, 85^th – P3 BoB, 27^th – P4 BoB, 30^th – P5 BoB, 26^th – BoB %
• Other – Duf returns to a place that’s seen him have some mixed results, but overall he’s a solid play for this course. Duf will plod his way around this course without showing any emotions even if he’s leading by 20 come Sunday afternoon. His ball striking ability is what makes him such a good play even with a cold putter, and if his putter gets warm he makes an even better play. This is said basically every week he tees it up, and looking at his finishes, you can see when he putted well.

 Harris English (DK $7,500)

• Tournament History: 31^st – 10^th
• Form:60^th – 46^th – 27^th – 37^th – 26^th – 2^nd – 49^th – MC – 17^th
• Stats: 78^th – SG:APP, 51^st – SG:ARG, 6^th – SG:P, 110^th – SG:T2G, 35^th – DD, 116^th – GIR, 36^th – Scoring Avg, 83^rd – Prox from 50-125, 45^th – Prox from 125-150, 83^rd – Scrambling, 62^nd – P5 BoB, 112^th – BoB
• Other – Harry hasn’t missed a cut in what seems like forever ago (THE PLAYERS) and while his latest tournaments haven’t produced the best finishes, he was very close to winning at the Dean & Deluca (where he pressed a bit too hard) and at the Wells Fargo where he finished inside the Top 20. His distance off the tee no doubt will help him here which is evidenced by his past performances, so let’s just hope he doesn’t bring a balky putter this week (putting has been the strength of his game this year).

ALSO CONSIDER – William McGirt (DK $8,700) – Dirt McGirt returns and he couldn’t have picked a better time! He’s made the cut here in three of his last four attempts with a best finish of 8^th in 2014 and has a win, 7^th and 10^th place finish in his last six starts (he also has a 59^th and two MC’s in there as well, but I love McGirt’s consistency for cash games this week). He’ll be part of my core players that’s for sure. Jerry Kelly (DK $7,300) – Kelly did the unthinkable last week for those that were willing to pay up for him and missed the cut. This week he’s priced back where he should be on a course where he’s never missed the cut and has two top 10’s. I’m always in for playing price reduced players the week after they’re super expensive, especially when they miss the cut and this a perfect time to get back on board with Kelly. Matt Jones (DK $6,300) – Suggesting Matt Jones as a play doesn’t exactly excite me, but you’d be silly to ignore someone who’s made five straight cuts including two majors. Just like Kelly, Jones was overpriced for the caliber player he is (as was a lot of the field last week) and returns back to his normal price range this week offering some much needed value in this price range.

 

DEEP DIVERS:

Henrik Norlander (DK $6,600)

• Tournament History: 16^th
• Form: 27^th – 25^th – 59^th – 47^th – 41^st – 65^th – 49^th – 71^st – 31^st
• Stats: 107^th – SG: OTT, 106^th – SG:APP, 139^th – SG:ARG, 109^th – SG:P, 127^th – SG:T2G, 110^th – DD, 77^th – DA, 39^th – GIR, 126^th – Birdie Avg, 126^th – Scoring Avg, 40^th – Prox, 85^th – Rough Prox, 9^th – App from 250-275, 40^th – App from 225-250, 49^th – App from 100-125, 50^th – App from 50-125, 38^th – App from 125-150, 61^st – App from 175-200, 34^th – App > 200, 50^th – Scrambling, 140^th – Putts inside 10’ (86.81%), 24^th – P3 BoB
• Other – Norlander has quietly caught my attention the past few weeks and although he ranks fairly highly as a ball striker, his scoring has been pretty impressive over the past few months; 48 birdies and an eagle in his last three tournaments. He’s exceeded the price he’s at this week, in those last three events as well and should continue to make it rain golf balls in Greensboro this weekend. I think there’s something to be said about watching your fellow countrymen win major championships and silver Olympic medals.

 David Hearn (DK $6,500)

• Tournament History: MC – MC
• Form: 30^th – MC – 20^th – 12^th – 41^st – 27^th – 17^th – 28^th – MC – 20^th
• Stats: 22^nd – SG:APP, 69^th – SG:ARG, 68^th – SG:P, 65^th – SG:T2G, 22^nd – DA, 42^nd – GIR, 87^th – Birdie Avg, 79^th – Scoring Avg, 113^th – Prox from 50-125, 22^nd – Prox from 125-150, 42^nd – Scrambling, 16^th – P3 BoB, 37^th – P4 BoB, 78^th – BoB %
• Other – Hearn let me down at the Olympics, but as you know I’m not one to hold grudges. His ball striking and putting ability make up for any short-comings off the tee and if not for an extremely slow start last week, he would’ve cracked the Top 25 and probably could’ve played his way into the Top 15 if things worked out like I wanted. I think everything plays out the way it should and Hearn returns to the Top 15 this week.

David Toms (DK $5,800) 

• Course History: MC – 18^th – 16^th – MC – 17^th – 2^nd – 24^th – 41^st
• Form: 73^rd – MC – 11^th – MC – 26^th – 25^th – MC – 71^st – 36^th
• Stats: 35^th – SG:APP, 23^rd – SG:ARG, 47^th – SG:P, 72^nd – SG:T2G, 15^th – DA, 82^nd – GIR, 146^th – Birdie Avg, 54^th – Scoring Avg, 7^th – Sandies, 37^th – Prox from 50-125, 29^th – Prox from 125-150, 14^th – P3 BoB, 161^st – BoB %
• Other – Toms is very boring in his play and to watch as a golfer, but he’s consistent and when trying to make cash & GPP teams I think he fits as one of the cheaper guys you can at least count on to try his damnedest to make the cut for your team and possibly make a decent run on the weekend. His performance last year fell flat especially amongst other old guys (specifically Davis Love III), but his tournament history is among the best here and he’s one of those players that plays well on familiar courses regardless of how old or how bad his form is coming in.

ALSO CONSIDER – Michael Thompson (DK $5,700) – Thompson is more of a ball striker than anything else (he’s not really a bomber or a good putter per say) and because the rest of his game is so volatile I can’t recommend him for cash games this week, but he makes for a very sneaky GPP play after two consecutive weeks of being touted by several respectable punters. This looks like one of those “one-to-two weeks late” situations where he pops up at a very good value. Erik Compton (DK $5,600) – Compton was DQ’d last week after missing a Pro-Am due to come communication issues between the PGA Tour and himself. Regardless, we’re back on Bermuda greens and that’s where Compton does his most work. Don’t sleep on him this week. Troy Merritt (DK $5,400) – Merritt’s made the cut in 2/3 tries here with no finishes really to speak of, but in this range you’re just asking for four days of play and hopefully reaching a very low ceiling to meet value. Merritt has played well on tracks that have not necessarily suited his game, which is the exact opposite of how he sets up here this week. I think he’s a good play in both cash & GPP’s this week.

 

GPP PLAYS:

Kevin Kisner (DK $8,300)

• Course History: 8^th – 46^th – 59th
• Form: 18^th – 26^th – 76^th – 16^th – 49^th – MC – 10^th – MC – MC
• Stats: 38^th – SG:OTT, 12^th – SG:P, 98^th – SG:T2G, 112^th – DD, 43^rd – DA, 127^th – GIR, 29^th – Birdie Avg, 40^th – Scoring Avg, 83^rd – Prox from 50-125, 5^th – Prox from 125-150, 89^th – P3 BoB, 10^th – P4 BoB, 75^th – P5 BoB, 28^th – BoB %
• Other – Kis has been an extremely odd player to target this year, but that’s something we should expect after having so much success last year and coming off his first win earlier this year. As with a lot of the players in this article, Kis’ strengths are ball striking & putting, specifically on Bermuda grass. He’s played here less than a handful of times and his best finish came two years ago (when he was a relatively unknown player on Tour) so he could be overlooked when building GPP lineups and I think that’s a mistake considering how well he’s been playing the last two months.

Adam Hadwin (DK $7,400)

• Course History: 51^st
• Form: 8^th – MC – 49^th – MC – 11^th – 22^nd – 58^th – 39^th – 61^st – 36^th
• Stats: 74^th – SG:OTT, 14^th – SG:P, 60^th – DA, 78^th – GIR, 23^rd – Birdie Avg, 66^th – Scoring Avg, 59^th – Sandies, 95^th – Prox from 50-125, 129^th – Prox from 125-150, 1^st – P3 BoB, 74^th – P4 BoB, 73^rd – P5 BoB, 24^th – BoB %
• Other – I wrote him up last week here and he came through with a solid performance finishing 8^th so he gets the nod again this week on a course that fits his game. Hadwin’s excellent putting is always what determines whether or not he’ll be making the cut or finishing in the Top 25 and he seems to have worked things out after his last missed cut, and that putter is also what makes him a GPP play only this week in my opinion.

 

ALSO CONSIDER – Bill Haas (DK $9,600) – When someone says “GPP play” Haas may not be the first person that comes to mind, but his history here is ridiculous; three top 10’s in his last four starts, four for four Top 20’s. Any time I can get a place bonus on a guy who normally flies under the radar, I’m taking it and that’s exactly what you’re getting with Haas this week. I’ll be looking to pair him with the likes of Patrick Reed, Hideki Matsuyama and Kisner for my “GPP anchors”. Justin Thomas (DK $8,600) – He’ll be popular, but he’s worth a look. Last year I was high on him coming in and he laid a dud after playing really well for four straight weeks coming in. Hopefully getting some rest after the PGA Championship will give us an inspired JT looking to try to play his way onto the Ryder Cup team as a captain’s pick. Roberto Castro (DK $6,000) – Another ball striker with good form, Castro should be a nice low owned option this week. His form isn’t the greatest, but he’s made 18 of 22 cuts and more importantly has made eight of his last eight cuts including two T11’s and a 2^nd (where he lost in a playoff to James Hahn at the Wells Fargo). Andrew Loupe (DK $5,700) – To be clear, this is not a ringing endorsement for Loupe. The general public will look at how he played this past week and how he played day one at the Travelers (a course that didn’t suit his game) and think that he’s a good, cheap play this week when in fact he’s a terrible play for this course and you should avoid falling into this trap. Loupe is a fluky player that takes forever to hit a single shot and that is what causes him to continuously miss cuts. Stay away this week.  

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

 

• Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)

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