Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview – Wyndham Championship

What a way to end the final major of the year, with Jason Day beginning Sunday on top and never letting up on the gas pedal in route to his first major championship. It makes it all the sweeter that he was one of our top recommendations in our preview columns. It was so great to have been able to be in attendance this past weekend at Whistling Straits and witness this great event. We had an excellent time walking the entire course and see every golfer play up close.

Our recommendations did really well for the PGA Championship and we have heard from an overwhelming number of our members who crushed cash games and had amazing performances in GPPs. One FGI member Ron Van Elsis, screenname HooDooGuru, actually tied for third in the Millionaire Maker event this past weekend. This is an absolute incredible achievement considering there were 188,925 other entries. Congrats Ron, terrific work! Also congratulations to all the other FGI members who we heard from that did well in the Millionaire Maker (a lot in the Top 500) and all other contests. From the massive amount of feedback and winning results we have received via emails and Twitter, we know that the FGI family is making a huge impact throughout the DFS industry.

We will continue to keep this momentum going, but this is the time that we need to stay disciplined and stick to our strict bankroll management. See: How to win Playing Daily.  It is easy to get excited after a monster week and overextend our bankroll on the coming week/s events, but DO NOT DO IT. Our goal is to be profitable over the long term, we always have and we always will, but it will get all fouled up if you get careless and blow all our profits over the short term. We would love to be able to slaughter the fantasy golf industry with our members every single week, but honestly that is not possible. We will have losing weeks ever once in a while, but if you stay disciplined and stick to your bankroll management, your losses will be small and wins like last week will be large. We will win far more weeks than we lose. Our system is tested and successful and will make you profitable in the long-term so stick to it, keep working hard, and reap the rewards!

As you know the recommendations were amazing last week as we recommended each of the Top 5 finishers- Jason Day (1st), Jordan Spieth (2nd), Brendan Grace (3rd), Justin Rose (4th), and Brooks Koepka (5th). In addition we recommended Robert Streb who finished T10, Martin Kaymer T12, Justin Thomas T18, Louis Oosthuizen, Jim Furyk, and Rickie Fowler T30, Jason Bohn and Hideki Matsuyama T37. The only guys who we recommended that were bad were Shane Lowry, Pat Perez, and long shot Richie Ramsey who missed the cut. Overall it was an unbelievable week and one that we will continue to work our asses off to repeat.

Before we turn the page on the PGA Championship, we just wanted to review a couple key concepts to be sure to remember come next season about the Millionaire Maker Tournament on Draftkings and contests surrounding major tournaments in general. First of all, we talked about the fact that in major tournaments, unlike other tournaments during the course of the year, the cream always rises to the top. The top players in the world always dominate the Top 10 and usually one of them wins it. For this reason, we cannot implement a strictly balanced approach only rostering players around $8,300. As with every other major this year, most of the top priced finished near the top. We highlighted this fact in our preview article last week and it came to fruition as lineups including Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, and Justin Rose dominated the top of standings in most contests. The other thing we highlighted was the fact that to win the Millionaire Maker event you needed all of your guys to finish in the Top 20 and once again that was the case as the winning MM roster was comprised of: Jason Day (1st), Branden Grace (3rd), Justin Rose (4th), Brooks Koepka (5th), Tony Finau (10th), David Lingmerth (12th). We will store this knowledge in the back of our minds for future monster events.

We realize the final major has come to an end, and in about a month the FedEx Cup playoffs will come to a completion marking the end of the 2014-2015 season. This however does not mark the end of fantasy golf and DFS Golf. We have found that the fall season, which starts October 12th with the Frys.com Open is THE BEST time to win playing DFS Golf. There are a couple reasons for this: 1. Attention from content providers shifts to covering football and the masses are not as well informed. Our members do not have to worry about this as we cover golf and only golf 12 months a year. New rookies make their debut on the PGA Tour in the fall and we have been studying the Web.com tour this past season and we know who will be the ones to roster right away (think Tony Finau and Justin Thomas last year). Virtually nobody knows who these guys are which gives us a huge advantage. 2. There is a large infusion of DFS football guys coming back to DFS sites after a hiatus following the conclusion of last football season. They see this fantasy golf thing and want to give it a shot. How good do you think they will be? What we are trying to get across is if you like playing DFS golf and you like making money, the fall golf season provides a tremendous opportunity and ROI for all of us.

This week the PGA Tour offers us a filler between the PGA Championship and the first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs and that stand-in is the Wyndham Championship. It is played at the Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina. The tournament was founded in 1938 as the Greater Greensboro Open and just recently became the Wyndham Championship in 2007. The field is less than star studded, with only 8 of the current Top 30 players in the FedEx points standings, but it will include Adam Scott, Billy Horschel, Bill Haas, Martin Kaymer and of course Tiger Woods. A key point to note is that there will be several players trying to get into the Top 125 in FedEx Cup points so that they can play in the Barclays next week. Several of those players who need to play well to earn that spot include Camillo Villegas who ranks 126th, Vijay Singh 127th, Luke Donald 134th. Note that nobody in the past five years outside the Top 135 has gained a spot in the first leg of the playoffs.

Sedgefield Country Club is a Par 70 course measuring 7,127 yards. The average winning score over the past seven years has been 17 under par, so we are going to need guys that can score this week. Greens in regulation is usually a very important stat that helps us predict success and various courses, but this week it is essential. Year after year those who hit the most greens in regulation finish the best. For example, last year of the 20 players who hit the most greens in regulation, 16 of them finished in the Top 25, including three of the top four guys in GIR finished in the Top 5. 2013 and 2012 yielded the same results, with Patrick Reed leading the way with the most greens hit and also winning the tournament. With results this powerful we need to make sure we are looking closely at who in the field is ranking well in greens in regulation. Another essential stat that we need to examine and it comes to reason because it is a Par 70 is Par 4 scoring. In addition, for those of you DFS players we are going to look at Par 4 birdies or better average, because we know how important birdies can be in scoring on sites like Draftkings and FantasyAces. Last but certainly not least we will look at good old, and most important, strokes gained tee-to-green. Week after week we see the top of the standings and the leaders in strokes gained tee-to-green coincide with each other.

Many of you have let us know about your success on FantasyAces, and if you have not yet checked it out, we would encourage you to this week. Be sure to check out our own Roger Casey’s article which is written specifically for FantasyAces scoring system and pricing model. They don’t have very large contests as of yet, since they are new, but there is a phenomenal opportunity because most of the people currently playing there have not mastered the different scoring system and the strategy that goes along with it. If you sign up through this link: SIGN UP FOR FANTASY ACES
Use the Promo Code: INSIDER, you will get an outstanding 20% first time bonus (up to $250). If you do it through this link or the banner on our front page we get credit for you signing up and can keep making FGI better. If you have specific questions, feel free to shoot us an email, or hit us up on Twitter @Fantasygolfers.

Be sure to check out our sportsbook odds vs. daily pricing tool, which has proven to be extremely valuable by identifying players who’s price is lower than the sportsbook odds reflect, thus helping us find value.

For access to our Top picks, value picks, sleepers, and more, become a premium member.

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Top Stud Picks:

 

Brooks Koepka- I am sure you are shocked and amazed to see Koepka as a recommendation in our preview. We have recommended Koepka in most every preview this season and for good reason, he is a freaking stud. He is capable of winning every tournament he enters and he is a DFS point scoring monster. We have talked about the importance of accumulating points via birdies and eagles in DFS at length, and Koepka is the single best player to do so. His only appearance at the Wyndham resulted in a 38th place finish last year. We have heard others in the industry talk about his inconsistency, but he has made 16 of 17 cuts this season with 11 Top 25s, and six Top 10s, so we are not quite sure as to what they are talking about. In DFS, even if Koepka finishes outside of the Top 10 in the standings, chances are he will still finish in the Top 10 in points scored. His last six events played have produced a T5 last week at the PGA Championship, T6 at the WGC Bridgestone, T18 at RBC Canadian, T10 at The Open, T18 at the U.S Open, and T3 at FedEx St Jude, so you can say he is on a roll. Finally, he is a statistical juggernaut as you will see below. Still people throughout fantasy golf, ignore him, but we will never make that mistake. (GPPs and Cash Games)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 34th
Strokes Gained Putting- 5th
Greens in Regulation- 19th
Total Driving- 42nd
Par 4 Scoring- 10th
Par 4 Birdies or Better Average- 4th

 

Billy Horschel- After watching Horschel in person last week, he appears to have some of his swagger back and maybe he is catching fire like he did late last season. Horschel has had a very consistent season, but not a dominant one outside of May-mid June where he had four straight Top 17s. Overall he has made 19 cuts in 23 events played, but has only two Top 10s. He looked good last week finishing T25 at the PGA Championship. In three appearances here he has a 47th last year, 49th in 2012, and 30th in 2011. We certainly need better than that this week and we are expecting it. We look at greens in regulation as a key stat this week and there are few players in the game who are better at hitting greens than Horschel. (GPP and Cash Games)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 71st
Strokes Gained Putting- 37th
Greens in Regulation- 10th
Total Driving- 18th
Par 4 Scoring- 50th
Par 4 Birdies or Better Average- 43rd

 

Justin Thomas- This has been an extremely good rookie season for Thomas and he has gone through a few different stretches where he has been unbelievable and he is in the midst of one right now. A T18 last week at The PGA Championship, T4 at Quicken Loans, and T5 at John Deere mark his last three efforts. Overall Thomas has made 19 cuts in 26 events, with 13 Top 25s, and seven Top 10s. He is an explosive player who has the ability to win The Wyndham this week. Like Brooks Koepka, Thomas is an excellent DFS player because of his ability to rack up points via birdies and eagles. Thomas ranks 2nd in total eagles and 3rd in total birdies on the PGA Tour. We like him a lot this week to be in the Top 10 with a chance to win. (GPP and Cash Games)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 23rd
Strokes Gained Putting- 102nd
Greens in Regulation- 44th
Total Driving- 58th
Par 4 Scoring- 84th
Par 4 Birdies or Better Average- 51st

 

Webb Simpson- His tournament history is too good to ignore as he missed the cut in the first of his six appearances at Sedgefield Country Club, but since then had an 8th in 2010, 1st in 2011, 22nd in 2012, 11th in 2013, and 5th last year. Simpson is a local guy who currently has a home in Charlotte and attended Wake Forest University, which explains his comfortability and success on this course. You might remember the other course that he is comfortable on and has great success year after year is Quail Hollow and he took runner-up there this year. His current form includes a T54 last week at the PGA Championship, T25 at WGC-Bridgestone, T40 at The Open, MC at Greenbrier, and T46 at The U.S Open. Simpson is one of the best tee-to-green players in the game today, but his putting is always his kryptonite. Even with his lack of ability on the greens, he is still able to compete in tournaments, especially in those with weaker fields like this week. You will see his strokes gained tee-to-green ranks amongst the best as you would expect. His propensity to play well here year after year is enough reason to believe you will repeat the past this week. (GPP and Cash Games)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 8th
Strokes Gained Putting- 165th
Greens in Regulation- 59th
Total Driving- 17th
Par 4 Scoring- 117th
Par 4 Birdies or Better Average- 155th

 

Bill Haas- Much like Simpson, Haas is also a local guy and has a really good history on this course in The Wyndham Championship. Three Top 10 finishes in the last six years, including a 2nd last year, 20th in 2013, 7th in 2012, and 10th in 2009. He has missed the cut here before, but not since 2011. Haas has shown glimpses of brilliance with T4s at Quicken Loans and The Players in addition to winning the Humana. Lately he has produced mediocre results for his skill level with a T65 last week at Whistling Straits T25 at WGC Bridgestone, and missed cuts at the Greenbrier and The Open. (GPPs and Cash Games)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 28th
Strokes Gained Putting- 148th
Greens in Regulation- 51st
Total Driving- 66th
Par 4 Scoring- 46th
Par 4 Birdies or Better Average- 106th

 

Top Value Picks:

 

Ollie Schneiderjans- When he first came on the scene this season, we had questions whether he could compete at the highest level immediately. Well Ollie has since answered that question with a resounding YES taking T42 at the U.S Open, T77 Scottish Open, T12 at The Open, T22 Canadian Open, and T15 at Quicken Loans. Those are much tougher fields than this week, which gives us now doubt he can contend this week. He obviously does not have any tournament history, since he is a rookie and such few events on the PGA tour that his statistics do not register. (GPP and Cash Games)

Stats not Available

 

Russell Knox- Knox has been struggling a bit missing the cut last week at The PGA Championship and The Open Championship. He also withdrew from the Travelers with an illness. Sometimes however we need to take into account particular events and courses that guys struggle in, and The PGA Championship and Open Championship are high pressure events played on very tough links style courses that would certainly qualify as events outside the norm. Besides those two tournaments Knox has been extremely good this season. He had a T10 at The Scottish Open, T8 at FedEx St Jude T18 at The Memorial, T17 at The Players, T18 at RBC Heritage all over the past three months. Knox has only played in the Wyndham once before three years ago when he finished 37th. He is a greens in regulation master, which is important to us ranking 7th on the PGA Tour this season. Most people will simply look at his last few tournaments played and disregard him as a viable choice without taking into account where his struggles took place. We are not going to make that mistake and capitalize on his form in events and courses similar to this week’s Wyndam. (GPP and Cash Games)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 25th
Strokes Gained Putting- 129th
Greens in Regulation- 7th
Total Driving- 57nd
Par 4 Scoring- 6th
Par 4 Birdies or Better Average- 92nd

 

Will Wilcox- If statistics alone determined winners, Will Wilcox would already be a multiple time winner on The PGA Tour this season. Unfortunately for Will they do not, so he isn’t, but he still has had a very solid season up to this point. He has made eleven cuts in fifteen events played with nine Top 25s and four Top 10s. In his last four appearances he has a T10 at the Barracuda, T21 at Quicken Loans, 2nd at Barbasol, and T8 at John Deere. Last year was his only appearance at the Wyndham and he took 24th. With his current hot streak not being much of a secret, we expect his ownership to be on the higher side this week. That fact still does not dissuade us from rostering him in cash games. (Some GPPs, and a lot of Cash Games)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 19th
Strokes Gained Putting- 40th
Greens in Regulation- 4th
Total Driving- 3rd
Par 4 Scoring- 4th
Par 4 Birdies or Better Average- 39th

 

Brendon Todd- Everything we just said about Russell Knox applies to Brendon Todd. In top notch fields, on long, difficult courses, Todd is not very good. However on shorter, more standard courses, with weaker fields like this week, Todd usually plays well. The great thing is that most people will be off of him because of his MC at Whistling Straits last week, T61 at WGC Bridgestone, an MC at the U.S Open. However on courses more similar to Sedgefield Country Club, Todd has a T6 at Greenbrier, T15 at Travelers, and 17th at the Memorial over the past two months. We should also mention he did have a T12 at The Open Championship. Todd did not play in this event last year, but had a 26th in 2013 after missing the cut in 2012 and 2009. Todd is average at hitting greens, but is one of the best putters on tour. With people being disgruntled about his most recent performances we see this as an opportunity to own him. (GPP and Cash Games)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 66th
Strokes Gained Putting- 10th
Greens in Regulation- 103rd
Total Driving- 93rd
Par 4 Scoring- 46th
Par 4 Birdies or Better Average- 136th

 

Johnson Wagner- In his last appearance he hurt us bad as we recommended him and he missed the cut at the Quicken Loans National. As we have preached numerous times, just because we have been burned in the past by a player, we cannot let it cloud our judgement and ignore them if they are a good play. Before that missed cut, Wagner was on a roll with a T18 at RBC Canadian, T10 at Barbasol, T5 at John Deere, and T32 at Greenbrier. He did not look terrible in his m/c at Quicken either, as he just missed the cut by 2 strokes. He took 38th here last year, missed the cut in 2013 and 2010, and had a 52nd in 2011, and 32nd in 2009. Wagner hits a lot of greens in regulation and actually ranks 13th in the category on the PGA Tour. (Mostly GPP)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 107th
Strokes Gained Putting- 77th
Greens in Regulation- 13th
Total Driving- 72nd
Par 4 Scoring- 103rd
Par 4 Birdies or Better Average- 169th

 

Carl Pettersson- You might see a pattern forming, but here is another local guy with a great tournament history. Four Top 10s in twelve appearances including 4th place finishes in 2012 and 2011, an 18th last year, and a win in 2008. This season has been a bit of a roller coaster with 19 cuts made in 29 events played, four Top 25s, and two Top 10s. Most recently he placed T75 at The PGA Championship, T4 at Quicken Loans, MC at The Open, T12 at John Deere, MC at Greenbrier, and 5th at Travelers. Overall his inconsistency and lousy stats are a big reason we never recommend him, but this week is an exception because his familiarity and success on this course. The big swede lives in Raleigh and attended North Carolina State, and has shown repeatedly that he plays well here. Throughout DFS sites he has a reasonable salary for quite a bit of upside. (GPP only-because he has missed so many cuts this season)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 126th
Strokes Gained Putting- 39th
Greens in Regulation- 171st
Total Driving- 125th
Par 4 Scoring- 80th
Par 4 Birdies or Better Average- 64th

 

Top Sleeper Picks:

 

Austin Cook- This is our favorite sleeper pick of the week and we love the fact that he is under most people’s radars. He only has a limited number of events played this season on the PGA Tour, but he has made the most of them. In six events played he has a T22 at Barracuda, T7 RBC Canadian, T6 at Barbasol, T22 at FedEx St Jude, MC at Byron Nelson, and T11 at Shell Houston. We have recommended Cook twice this year and both time he delivered and the best part is that he was owned by about 1% of the field in DFS. We expect that number to be up a little higher this week, but he still has not become a household name. We think he is a great GPP option as well as a fine cash game play. With his limited amount of events played on The PGA Tour this season, he does not qualify for the official rankings, but we have used his numbers and assumed he did qualify to tell you where he would have ranked had he had enough events under his belt. (Mostly GPP)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 13th
Strokes Gained Putting- 8th
Greens in Regulation- 103rd
Total Driving- N/A
Par 4 Scoring- 6th
Par 4 Birdies or Better Average- 86th

 

Vaughn Taylor- Only $6,700 on Draftkings in a week where pricing is hard? We just do not understand that, but we will take advantage of it. Taylor has made 10 out of 11 cuts this year and has been really good lately with a T30 at Quicken Loans, T41 at RBC Canadian, T10 at Barbasol, T44 at John Deere, and T18 at FedEx St Jude. Taylor does have three career Top 10s at the Wyndham, although he had a strong of missed cuts up until 2013 where he had a 10th place finish. He did not play last year. Taylor does not have to do much this week to out-produce his price, and he has shown the ability to do that this entire season.

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 8th
Strokes Gained Putting- 79th
Greens in Regulation- 25th
Total Driving- 45th
Par 4 Scoring- 46th
Par 4 Birdies or Better Average- 4th

 

Chad Campbell- He has missed the cut in his last two appearances in the Wyndham, but he is also playing better golf right now than he has in years. Seven straight made cuts which have included a T11 at Quicken Loans, T11 at RBC Canadian, T48 at Barbasol, T28 at John Deere, T37 at Greenbrier, T25 at Travelers, and T8 at FedEx St Jude. Campbell has actually had some success at this tournament having recorded two Top 10s in seven career appearances with a 4th in 2012. Again we have a guy who hits a lot of greens in regulation, ranking 35th in the PGA Tour. We like Campbell’s consistency and in DFS having a cut-maker at his price-point is valuable. (GPP and Cash Games)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 50th
Strokes Gained Putting- 123rd
Greens in Regulation- 35th
Total Driving- 94th
Par 4 Scoring- 117th
Par 4 Birdies or Better Average- 168th

 

Jim Herman- Since the start of April, Herman has made 11 cuts in 13 events played with six Top 40s, which is exactly what we need from a guy priced where he is most weeks. In his last two events he has a T30 at Quicken Loans and T22 at RBC Canadian. He missed the cut here last here, but took 11th in 2013. I would be difficult not to include a guy who ranks 2nd on the PGA Tour in the most important statistic that we are weighting this week, greens in regulation. Herman will be a low owned player in DFS this week and someone you can roster to save you some cap space yet still give you a reliable cut-maker. (GPP and Cash Games)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 76th
Strokes Gained Putting- 133rd
Greens in Regulation- 2nd
Total Driving- 11th
Par 4 Scoring- 84th
Par 4 Birdies or Better Average- 154th

 

Chez Reavie – After an absolutely hellacious start to this season where we saw Reavie miss 10 cuts in his first 13 events played, he has since made five consecutive with 3 Top 25s. Those five appearances include a T41 at RBC Canadian, T65 John Deere, T22 Greenbrier, T25 Travelers, and T12 FedEx St Jude. Chez did not play in this event last year, but in four appearances here actually has two Top 10s incluing a 9th in 2011 and 10th in 2009. We have talked about how important the statistic greens in regulation, well Reavie ranks amongst the Top 20 players in this field in that category. A made cut and possibly a Top 40 would make us happy and pay of his price in DFS. (Mostly GPP)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 62nd
Strokes Gained Putting- 156th
Greens in Regulation- 20th
Total Driving- 26th
Par 4 Scoring- 50th
Par 4 Birdies or Better Average- 80th

 

Best of luck to all of you, Team FGI on another successful and profitable week. Be sure to keep us updated!

 

-Fantasy Golf Insider

 

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