Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- WGC HSBC

OVERVIEW
Another no cut event this week, but we’ve got a better field to play with. Last year Russell Knox notched his first PGA Tour win by shooting an amazing 20 under par (67-65-68-68) and fighting off a charging 62 out of Danny Willett (this was about the time where Willett was getting his steam as a Masters pick). When looking back the past few years, the favorites haven’t really done much as far as challenging for the top prize. I’m not sure if that’s due to lack of concern because there’s no cut or what, but it’s something to monitor. Also worth noting is that Hideki Matsuyama has withdrawn from this event twice in the last three years and the time he didn’t withdraw, he finished 41st; don’t get burned by him this week if he decides to take his ball and go home.

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

o The Course
• Sheshan International Golf Club
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,261 yards
• Greens: Bentgrass
o Location: Shanghai, China
o Expected scoring: We’ve seen a median winning score of -18 over the last three years with DJ’s low score of -24 in 2013. I think that number will be tested this week and we could see an even better number this week assuming the weather cooperates (at the time of writing this Thursday calls for rain, but the rest of the days look to be overcast and cool). I don’t see any edge in the draw since there won’t be a cut.
o Past Champions (dating back to 2010):
• 2016: Russell Knox -20 over Kevin Kisner [-18]
• 2015: Bubba Watson -11 over Tim Clark in a playoff
• 2014: Dustin Johnson -24 over Ian Poulter -21
• 2012: Ian Poulter -21 over Jason Dufner, Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson, Scott Piercy [-19]
• 2011: Martin Kaymer -20 over Freddie Jacobson [-17]
• 2010: Francesco Molinari -19 over Lee Westwood [-18]

KEY STATS TO TARGET

o Strong Emphasis – SG: OTT, SG:APP, SG:T2G, Birdie or Better %, SG:P, Par 5 Scoring
o Important – Ball Striking, Scrambling

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STARS:

Rory McIlroy (DK $12,100)
• Course History: 11th – 6th – 4th – 5th
• Form: WIN – 42nd – WIN – 31st
• Stats: 1st – SG:OTT, 31st – SG:APP, 36th – SG:ARG, 135th – SG:P, 2nd – SG:T2G, 9th – DD, 11th – GIR, 2nd – Birdie Avg, 33rd – Prox, 88th – Scrambling, 2nd – Par Breakers, 2nd – BOB%
• Other – Rory’s rested up after a passionate Ryder Cup where he played really well compared to how he’d faired for the first three-fourths of the year. His approach game looked really sharp at Hazeltine and he drained some really long and important putts, but the question is does he get up for this event like the Ryder Cup? My guess is no, and that comes from him not making an appearance here during previous Ryder Cup years. I’ll probably be fading Rory this week.

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,900)
• Course History: 5th – WIN
• Form: 6th – WIN – 8th – 18th
• Stats: 2nd – SG: OTT, 26th – SG:APP, 75th – SG:ARG, 36th – SG:P, 3rd – SG:T2G, 2nd – DD, 43rd – GIR, 1st – Birdie Avg, 7th – Prox, 70th – Scrambling, 1st – Par Breakers, 1st – BOB%
• Other – When looking at the previous winners here, it seems fairly obvious that all players possess strong ball striking ability (Knox, Poulter, Clark, Kisner, Dufner, Piercy, Molinari all possess these skills) and DJ is a freak athlete (something we’ve also had drilled into our heads by golf media) who now possesses an elite off the tee game, strong approach game and a really good putting game. If any favorite is going to break the cycle of favorites not winning this event, it’s DJ.

Henrik Stenson (DK $9,800)
• Course History: 11th – 24th – 31st – 13th – 9th – 5th – 9th – 18th – 32nd
• Form: 41st – WD – 2nd – 7th
• Stats: Didn’t qualify – 291.7 yards – DD, 72.10% – GIR, 4.26 – Birdie Avg, 36’5” – Prox, 54.55% – Scrambling, 24.52% – BOB%
• Other – The Iceman is another player who’s well rested posted Ryder Cup and possesses a lot of skills that translate to success at this course. The current course history results are a bit of a concern, but we know he can turn it on when we least expect it; (cough) BMW International win following a withdraw at the US Open (cough). I think the play here is to fade him as well, mainly because I think DJ is the play at the top and load up with birdie makers below, but if you have a soft spot for him I wouldn’t argue too much if you played him.

ALSO CONSIDER – As mentioned above, Hideki Matsuyama (DK $10,000) has a less than stellar track history at this event and I strongly recommend fading him this week. I don’t think he’ll withdraw two years in a row, but this price and the overall feeling I get from him is that he’s not comfortable here. Paul Casey (DK $9,600) isn’t the favorite this week and that makes me very happy. Casey’s a ball striker and has some decent length and accuracy off the tee. He deserves to be part of your core this week and I really like pairing him with DJ as a 1-2 combo at the top. Justin Thomas (DK $9,300) went back to back as mentioned in this article last week, but when everyone will be jumping on the bandwagon, we jump off. He finished 27th here last year which isn’t terrible, I just don’t think he has it in him to follow up a win with another Top 5 performance.

 

VALUE PLAYS:

Rafa Cabrera-Bello (DK $7,600)
• Tournament History: N/A
• Form: 10th – 31st – 12th – 5th
• Stats: N/A – 290.8 – DD, 69.93% – GIR, 3.44 – Birdie Avg, 57.61% – Scrambling, 20.26% – Birdie or Better
• Other – The price on RCB means he’ll be uber chalk. I really don’t know how this happened other than his odds align with Si Woo’s. Regardless, plug him in and move on – he’s basically the free square this week in cash games. I’ve already bet him to win this event at 66/1, love him this week.

Kevin Chappell (DK $7,500)
• Course History: N/A
• Form: 45th – 2nd – 61st – 8th
• Stats: 45th – SG:OTT, 9th – SG:APP, 62nd – SG:ARG, 160th – SG:P, 13th – SG:T2G, 46th – DD, 71st – GIR, 72nd – Birdie Avg, 41st – Prox, 79th – Scrambling, 55th – Par Breakers, 55th – BOB%
• Other – Chappie let everyone down that backed him last week, myself included. Instead of getting mad about it and fading him this week I strongly suggest playing him on another course that fits the strengths of his game. He’s in a good range for value this week and Jason Day isn’t in the field. If he puts up another stinker, I’ll only suggest him when Jason Day IS in the field and the course fits his game (so we can watch him take 2nd for a fourth time).

Thongchai Jaidee (DK $7,100)
• Tournament History: 11th – 41st – 46th – 29th – 53rd – 53rd – 15th
• Form: 22nd – 8th – 9th – 20th – MC – MC – 29th
• Stats: Euro Tour – 70.77 – Scoring Avg, 61.26% – DA, 281.72 yards – DD, 69.08% GIR
• Other – Jaidee was a pre-tournament withdrawal last week due to paying respects to the king of Thailand so this week I could see some good karma in his future. Jaidee doesn’t do a lot of good things great, but he does do them slightly above average and the course this week is short enough where his accuracy should set him up for some good shots into the greens. At this price he’s a pretty solid value play considering there’s no cut and it’d be foolish to not play him coming off of four straight Top 25’s on upper echelon Tours (meaning he’s not doing it on the Asian/Web/Challenge Tours).

ALSO CONSIDER – Martin Kaymer (DK $8,700) isn’t playing in the United States this week and isn’t the favorite. That’s really all you need to know as far as analysis on him as he’s been good outside of the US for the past two years, has posted back to back 6th place finishes in Euro Tour events and has three Top 10’s in his last four appearances here – translation: he’s a great value play this week. Daniel Berger (DK $7,800) finished 11th here last year after a really weird, but good rookie campaign. His ball striking looked really good during the Fed Ex Cup championship so last week’s clunker was a bit weird to see. Maybe he was spending some much needed time with Victoria; that would certainly take my focus off of golf. Si Woo Kim (DK $7,700) I hope you played him last week and if you’re betting on golf I hope you tailed my each-way tip of him as well as he finished 10th and cashed a nice Top 10 bet for me. We’ll be riding this guy all year and this week is no different. I really like him again this week as a play on DraftKings as well as betting. He’s currently anywhere from 66-76/1 for betting prices. I like him this week for the same reason I liked him last week; course is short, and he’s a ball striker who can putt. Play him in cash, play him in GPPs and watch the money roll in on Sunday.

 

DEEP DIVERS:

KT Kim (DK $5,900)
• Course History: 27th – 49th – 41st – 24th – 24th
• Form: 3rd – 32nd – MC – 53rd – 39th – 19th
• Stats: Didn’t qualify – 279 yards – DD, 61.62% – GIR, 3.14 – Birdie Avg, 36’ – Prox, 18.43% – BOB%
• Other – Unlike Jaidee, Kim has done most of his damage on the Asian and Web.com Tours in the last month, but he’s got plenty of course history here to make me consider him at this price. Last year he started out on the wrong side of par opening with a 74, but his rounds got progressively better shooting 71, 68, 66 and finished T27. At this price I’d like to think he’d finish higher than dead last, so that’s why he’s being highlighted in this section. If you’re going to use him in cash, I wouldn’t recommend tilting the weekend away and you better be getting three or four top tier players.

Bradley Dredge (DK $5,900)
• Tournament History: 21st – 21st – 32nd
• Form: MC – 11th – 13th – MC – MC – 2nd
• Stats: Euro Tour – 70.39 – Scoring Avg, 60.09% – DA, 290.79 yards – DD, 67.47% – GIR
• Other – If you’ve been following the European Tour at all this year you’ve heard of Mr. Dredge, or Judge Dredge or whatever everyone else calls him. He’s got some course history here, albeit from 2009, but with no cut this week we’re going to have to go off the board a bit without being stupid and I think that’s exactly what Dredge presents us with here.

ALSO CONSIDER – Joost Luiten (DK $6,400) and George Coetzee (DK $6,500) come into this event at a good time and price. Luiten has been struggling since his win in his home country, and Coetzee’s been on the “miss the cut in every other event” train. Both players are considered better than average in this field and should be in consideration when looking for price relief. For an ultra-deep sleeper, take a look at Young-Han Song (DK $6,500). Song beat Jordan Spieth last year at the SMBC Singapore Open and has been killing it on the Japan Tour over the last two months with five Top 10’s in his last seven events and I doubt people will want to pay up for him at that price.

 

GPP PLAYS:

Brooks Koepka (DK $8,500)
• Course History: N/A
• Form: 32nd – 57th – 70th
• Stats: 13th – SG:OTT, 89th – SG:APP, 113th – SG:ARG, 20th – SG:P, 37th – SG:T2G, 19th – DD, 59th – GIR, 6th – Birdie Avg, 71st – Prox, 152nd – Scrambling, 5th – Par Breakers, 5th – BOB%
• Other – It’s tough to say how Brooks will do coming off the emotional Ryder Cup win, but a no cut event is a great place to kick off the new season. Koepka is in a similar spot as Knox last year, coming in without any course history, and possesses a much stronger all-around game. If anyone is going to take the title away from DJ this week, I’d like to think it could be Brooks. The only issue here is that the general public loves Brooks, so his ownership should be fairly high.

Charl Schwartzel (DK $8,200)
• Course History: 35th – 64th – 4th – 16th – 48th – 6th – 48th – 20th – 32nd
• Form: 10th – 4th – 70th – 53rd
• Stats: 47th – SG:OTT, 7th – SG:APP, 33rd – SG:ARG, 124th – SG:P, 10th – SG:T2G, 44th – DD, 24th – GIR, 26th – Birdie Avg, 77th – Prox, 69th – Scrambling, 26th – Par Breakers, 26th – BOB%
• Other – Charl has ample course history and comes in off a pretty hot finish to the Fed Ex Cup playoffs where he finished with two Top 10’s. I’m not 100% sure on this, but I really think he’ll go overlooked this week based on what I think others perceive to be low birdie making ability numbers. He’s accurate and has strong ball striking skills so this could be a really good week to get him at sub 10% ownership and that to me is a huge bargain as people primarily look at him for cash games in events that have a cut.

ALSO CONSIDER – Emiliano Grillo (DK $7,800) may go overlooked as well given his lack of “good” course history here (35th last year) and letting people down that played him the last two weeks (17th & 26th). Hitting greens and putting the ball in the hole on the first try are things he excels at, and if people try to go “stars & scrubs” where they’re stuffing the top guys in, it literally makes it impossible to get him in your lineup. Scott Piercy (DK $7,900) is probably on the minds of some people after his success two weeks ago, but with minimal golf coverage last week I’m not sure if anyone saw him finish 10th, let alone play any holes. Piercy seems to have everything going right now which is either really good for this week or setting him up for a win in his hometown of Las Vegas at the Shriners. For my sake, I hope it’s this week. I also think Sean O’ Hair (DK $7,300) & Roberto Castro (DK $7,600) could play very well on this course. That’s mainly a gut call due to their ball striking abilities, so that take for what it’s worth. Also, I wrote those players up in the order I like them, in case you’re wondering from a “rankings” perspective.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

– Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)

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