Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- WGC Bridgestone Invitational

How many of you picked Troy Merritt to win last week’s Quicken Loans Invitational before it started? Well we can confidently say that between all of our teams here at FGI, Merritt did not crack any of them. As a matter of fact he was only owned by 1% of the field in the large $3 GPP, which is only 1,475 entries out of 134,167. No doubt most of those people were just randomly pulling names out of the air mixed with some people who actually thought they were picking John Merrick. Either way, nothing pointed to Merritt having success last week, so do not beat yourselves up if you did not have him. Wacky things happen from time to time in golf, but that is good for us, because if there was zero luck involved, there would not be a pool of fish for FGI members to feast on over the long-term. This concept is much like poker, where it is hard to stomach the occasional bad-beat, but we have to realize that is what keeps the novices around and in the long-term, we will be profitable.

A real quick, funny story for all of you. You may or may not know we are from Minnesota and so is Troy Merritt. My uncle actually knows him and his daughters went to the same high school. Well because of this, my uncle has been choosing Merritt on his Draftkings rosters for the better part of the year. I was playing golf with my uncle early Saturday morning and I was joking with him that Merritt finally made the cut this week after being miserable most of the year. My uncle informed me that he finally cut the cord and that he did not roster Merritt this week, because he just kept losing money because of it. As we complete the round of golf, I check my phone and see that Merritt has actually charged up the leaderboard into the Top 5. You should have seen the look on my uncle’s face when I gave him the news. All he could do was shake his head. I made sure to shoot him a nice little text after Merritt closed it out on Sunday, just to pour a little more salt into that wound.

Our picks in this column were very good, but not as outstanding as last week. Overall 10 of the 13 guys mentioned made the cut with the studs really shining with Justin Rose taking T4, Rickie Fowler 2nd, and Justin Thomas T4. Jimmy Walker our other stud pick looked like he was going to be in contention after roaring back on Friday, but in the end finished a mediocre T21 and clearly did not pay off his price. The value picks were a mixed bag with an outstanding T4 performance from Jason Bohn. As we advised to forget about the previous week and roster Kevin Chappell, he proved us correct and bounced back with a T18. Although this was an excellent result for him, it was disappointing that he could not finish better considering he was in the final pairing on Sunday. Johnson Wagner and Andy Sullivan broke our hearts and cost us cash as they both surprised us and missed the cut. Sleepers were solid overall with McNeill delivering a T30, Bryce Molder T39, and Vaughn Taylor looking like a steal at $6,400 on Draftkings and finishing T30. A congratulations goes out to our own Zach Turcotte, a.k.a Myzteriouzly who won the Clubhouse contest on Draftkings and pocketed a cool $12,000 for his hard work. As you know Zach writes The Daily Spin each week on our site, and provides advice and strategy that is far beyond anything else remotely close in the industry. It just so happens that he is able to articulate his advice in a writing style that is worthy of the pages of any top level publication in the country.

We heard from a lot of members who had great weeks last week including those that just got started on Fantasy Aces. Don’t forget to check out FantasyAces, if you have not already. Be sure to get in their cash games, as they are producing very nice results for us and our members. If you sign up through this link: SIGN UP FOR FANTASY ACES
Use the Promo Code: INSIDER, you will get an outstanding 20% first time bonus (up to $250). If you do it through this link or the banner on our front page we get credit for you signing up and can keep making FGI better. Be sure to read Roger Casey’s article dedicated strictly to the FantasyAces game, strategy and scoring.  If you have specific questions, feel free to shoot us an email, or hit us up on Twitter @Fantasygolfers.

After a couple weeks of tournaments that featured very mediocre fields, this week and next week we get to watch all of the very best in the world. This week is the WGC Bridgestone Invitational held at the south course of Firestone Country Club in Akron, Ohio. This event was sponsored by NEC through 2005 (World Series of Golf before that) but Bridgestone became the tournament sponsor in 2006. The field consists of about 75 players, which include the Top 50 in the world, playing members of the last Ryder Cup, and tournament winners of worldwide events since the prior year’s tournament with an Official World Golf Ranking Strength of Field Rating of 115 points or more. Unlike last week where the Quicken Loans National had been played at different courses in the past, Firestone Country Club has hosted the tournament since its inception (except 2002). Tournament history will thus go back to being an important factor that we will analyze closely. Firestone Country Club is a Par 70, has two Par 5 holes, four Par 3 holes, and measures 7,400, which is about the same distance as last week’s Quicken Loans National and one of the longer courses played all year. The South Course includes several long par-4 holes and the Par 5 16th hole measures 667 yards, which is one of the longest holes in existence.

The statistics we will be analyzing this week will include strokes gained tee-to-green, total driving, greens in regulation, Par 4 scoring, and long approach shots. Eight of the holes measure between 450-500 yards. Last year 48 of the 70 players in the field averaged driving distance between 280-305 yards. Quick math tells us a lot of approach shots from the majority of the field will be between 175-200 yards, so we will look at approach shots from that distance, except for those guys who drive the ball over 305 off the tee like Dustin, Holmes, Day, Watson, Scott, etc. Those guys approach shots will be closer and they will be able to use their 9-iron or wedges. Great putting is always necessary for those who want to crack the Top 10 in these events with stacked fields. Three of the four Par 3 holes measure between 200-225 yards, so we will need to look at that statistic as well.

That leads us to talk a little bit about the strategy we will use since The WGC Bridgestone is a non-cut event. Most weeks it is very important to get six guys through the cut on Draftkings and FantasyAces so that they can continue to accumulate points. This week that is  not a concern, so we need to switch up our strategy a little bit. Much like our strategy is in very large field events, like the 100,000+ fields on Draftkings, we need to identify those players capable of finishing high. In normal weeks a T54 from one of your players is acceptable, at least in cash games and smaller GPPs, because that means they had two more days of scoring than eighty other guys who did not make the cut. This week everybody will have four full rounds, barring a withdrawal, so we need to identify those guys who have a better chance to finish high than others. That is not always easy to do, but here is an example: Louis Oosthuizen this year has played in 15 events on the PGA Tour and majors, he has missed the cut four times and has six Top 10s. His missed cut percentage is rather high for a top player, which would be a hesitation to choose him in a normal cut event, but you can see the upside. This week without the downside of a missed cut, players like this who have such high upside need to be weighted heavier. In addition, as we talked about in depth in last week’s tournament preview, and if you did not catch it look back on our expert columns page, we need guys who can accumulate points on the DFS sites. With no threat of a missed cut, guys who are more volatile and put up a lot of birdies and bogies are more valuable than ever.

So, with this non-cut event, should we build more stars and scrubs (a combination of really high priced players and really low priced players) or should we stick with more balanced lineups in DFS? In our premium member section we will analyze both of these strategies to see if we can gain some insight as to which may be better.
Be sure to check out our sportsbook odds vs. daily pricing page to identify some value in the pricing this week in comparison with different DFS sites.  We get this posted as soon as we get the pricing from all the various sites.
For access to our Top picks, value picks, sleepers, and more, become a premium member.

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Before we get to our recommendation, let’s take a look at the topic of what type of roster to construct for the event this week in DFS, particularly on Draftkings and FantasyAces.

First we analyzed several tournaments that had similar scoring as we expect the WGC-Bridgestone to have this week.  This will allow us to see how many points were scored by players who placed in various positions in the final standings. Then we assumed where the player was priced would be where they finish and designated the proper amount of points. For instance we expect the winner of this tournament to score somewhere around 130 points on Draftkings and someone finishing 20th to score 83 points. Please keep in mind this is for illustration purposes only to help guide in lineup composition.

We will build two lineups with the $50k cap and then list the corresponding Draftkings points that we would expect from somebody who finished in that postion.(an estimate based upon that finishing position in other tournaments with similar scoring).
**NOTE these lineups are for illustration purposes and are not recommendation by us in any way.

Lineup #1 Star and Scrubs
$12,500 Jordan Spieth, 130 pts
$7,500 JB Holmes 70 pts
$7,500 Hunter Mahan 70 pts
$7,500 Robert Streb 70 pts
$7,500 Charley Hoffman 70 pts
$7,500 Shane Lowry 70 pts
$50,000                      485 points scored

Lineup #2 Balance Team
$8,700 Matt Kuchar 88 pts
$8,600 Patrick Reed 87 points
$8,400 Brooks Koepka 85 points
$8,300 Jimmy Walker 84 points
$8,200 Brandt Snedeker 83 points
$7,800 Ryan Palmer 79 points
$50,000                       506 points scored

As you can see if you roster Spieth or another high dollar guy, with the salaries the way they are on Draftkings, it does not leave you with many options (average $7,500 for the rest of your players). Plus, this is assuming your top priced guy wins the tournament as we all know is not an easy thing to do. From our example, at least generally speaking, it would be more advantageous to go with a balanced team. One important point to make however is that if you are playing in a large GPP like the $3, $100,000 to the winner on Draftkings, you will most likely need to have the winner on your roster, even if that is Spieth. This illustration was more for cash games and manageable GPP fields of less than 1,000 people. Some of the sub $7,500 guys will jump up and finish better than their price would have suggested, but good luck trying to identify five of them. That is the entire point we are trying to make with this example and hope you took something away from it.

*NOTE: Since there is not a cut this week there will not be a distinction between cash game plays and GPPs for DFS.

 

Top Stud Picks:
Jordan Spieth- We know, We know this is not a bold prediction, but we are not going to avoid him strictly because he is the obvious choice. Our main goal is to be correct and we think Spieth has a tremendous chance at winning this event.  That being said, as we demonstrated earlier it is very difficult to roster Spieth in DFS and still have five other guys who have a legitimate chance of finishing high. We last saw Spieth barely miss the playoff at The Open and the week before that win the John Deere. Of course he has also won The Masters and U.S Open this year, so he is more than capable of beating the best fields. His only appearance in this tournament was last year and he took 49th, but he is the best in the world right now so the past is not going to factor into our thinking. He ranks 82nd in driving distance, 69th in driving accuracy, 40th in total driving, 33rd in greens in regulation, 3rd in strokes gained tee-to-green, and 6th in strokes gained putting. Our best advice is to own Spieth on some of your lineups in large field events, but to fade him in smaller GPPs and cash games.

Rickie Fowler- Before the start of the season, we ranked Fowler as one of the guys we really liked coming into this season and expected him to win at least one tournament. Well, the start of the season produced very underwhelming results for him, but lately he looks to have regained the form he had last year. We all know he won The Players, but since then he also grabbed a win at the Scottish Open. He was not real impressive at The Open Championship with a T30, but he was locked in last week at the Quicken Loans and finished runner-up. His game really fits Firestone Country Club as he has the distance, but is also accurate ranking 45th in driving distance, 59th in driving accuracy, 131st in greens in regulation, 53rd in strokes gained tee-to-green, 131st in strokes gained putting, and 10th in total driving. Excelling in those statistical categories, you would expect good results here for Rickie in the past and he has with an 8th last year, 21st in 2013, 60th in 2012, and runner up in 2011. As with Jordan Spieth, the only bad thing about Rickie this week is his price in DFS.  So if you want to  fade him on some teams, you can, but he is locked in right now and we are expecting him to be in contention, so same advice goes as Spieth.

Jason Day- We would be remised not to mention a guy who is on fire lately, with a win at the RBC Canadian, T4 at The Open, and T9 at the US Open. Frankly he seems to show up at big events and as long as he is healthy, has one of the best chances to win this event. Day ranks 2nd in driving distance, 170th in driving accuracy, 25th in greens in regulation, 25th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 21st in strokes gained putting, and 65th in total driving. He has not had a tremendous amount of success here in the past with a MC last year, 53rd in 2013, 29th in 2012, 4th in 2011, and 22nd in 2010. He is however healthy right now and never played this well in his career so we expect another Top 5 out of him this week with a legit chance to win.

Adam Scott- We recommended Scott for The Open Championship, and he had a legitimate chance to win late on Monday, but a few missed putts from close range derailed him and he finished T10. He clearly has his game back on track since he went back to the anchor putter and got Steve Williams back as a caddie. However his only other appearance in the past month and a half was a T4 at the U.S Open so we do not have a real large sample size. As always he is an elite ball striker, we just need his putter to be ok. He has a great track record here with an 8th last year, 14th in 2013, 45th in 2012, and a championship in 2011. He is the 6th highest priced player, but his salary will afford you a few more options as opposed to the top few guys.

Top Value Plays:
Brooks Koepka- We talked about the importance of having the ability to birdie holes and accumulate points in DFS last week in our preview article and there is nobody better at that than Brooks Koepka. In a tournament that we know he is going to get four rounds in, this ability is monumental. Even if he does not finish in the Top 10, he most likely will put up enough points to put him in the Top 10 in DFS scoring this week. A T18 at RBC Canadian, T10 at the Open, T22 at the Scottish Open, and T18 at the US Open mark his last four tournament results. Koepka’s statistics are outstanding ranking 8th in driving distance, 140th in driving accuracy, 14th in greens in regulation, 34th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 8th in strokes gained putting, and 37th in total driving. The stats that show he scores in DFS are 17th in birdie average, 2nd in eagles, and 10th in birdie or better %. All of that adds up to a fabulous DFS play especially this week with no cut. It is almost a must to roster Koepka in your cash games this week, as almost certainly he will pay off his price (barring a withdraw).

Hideki Matsuyama- Although Matsuyama has not necessarily lived up to expectations in the tournaments with the best fields this year, he has not badly disappointed either. A T18 finish at both the US Open and Open Championship, T17 at The Players, 5th at The Masters, and T23 at WGC Cadillac are all very solid finishes, but he has yet to seriously contend and we think it is only a matter of time before he does. In total this year he has eight Top 10 finishes in 18 events played with two 3rds and a runner up finish. He has played in this event the last two years and finished 12th last year and 21st in 2013. Matsuyama ranks 38th in driving distance, 35th in driving accuracy, 8th in greens in regulation, 1st in strokes gained tee-to-green, 129th in strokes gained putting, and 4th in total driving. If you are taking the approach of a balanced team this week in DFS, and we definitely do not think that is a bad one, Matsuyama is a solid anchor man.

Patrick Reed- Although he is ranked #18 in the world, Reed might not be on everybody’s short list this week, because has not posted a Top 10 since mid-March and plus a lot of people frankly hate him. He has not been playing poorly however with a T16 at the Omega Masters, T20 at The Open, T29 at Greenbrier, MC at Travelers, and T14 at the U.S Open. In his only appearance in this tournament, Reed took 4th last year. He ranks 78th in driving distance, 179th in driving accuracy, 173rd in total driving, 111th in greens in regulation, 35th in strokes gained tee-to-green, and 14th in strokes gained putting. What is so appealing about Reed this week is his price in DFS as he is only the 16th highest in the field, however he has so much upside. In a tournament that does not have a cut, Reed is capable of getting hot over the weekend and far out-producing his price.

Martin Kaymer- We recommended Kaymer for The Open Championship and it paid off as he finished T12. He appears to be trending in the right direction after his awful start to 2015, as he finished 4th in the French Open before his appearance in St Andrews. He is a real boom or bust type of pick this week, and he will be lowly owned in most events, which makes him perfect for large field events. He tends to trend nicely before he scores a big win, as he did last year at The Players Championship and US Open. He has had some mixed results at the WGC Bridgestone in the past with a 56th last year, 9th in 2013, 29th in 2012 and 2011, and 22nd in 2010. Because of his terrible start to the season, his season long statistics are skewed. In his last several events they have improved tremendously and we think he has the opportunity to surprise people this week.

Jim Furyk- This choice is a complete 180 degree difference from Kaymer. A Top 5 finish is hard to envision from Furyk (although definitely not impossible), but we are going to just say he will finish T16. That seems to be where he fits amongst this top field and would be a legit choice for some of your balanced rosters. A 4th at the RBC Canadian, T30 at The Open Championship, T42 at The U.S Open, and T5 at Memorial are how he has finished over the last two months. He ranks near the bottom in distance (170th), but makes up for it in accuracy (11th in driving accuracy and 24th in greens in regulation). All together he ranks 7th in strokes gained tee-to-green, which puts him high in our book. He knows Firestone County Club real well and has a tremendous amount of success here in the past with a 15th last year, 9th in 2013, 2nd in 2012, 23rd in 2011, and 6th in 2010. He is the 13th highest priced player on Draftkings, so we are not going to load up on him, but he is a guy who will provide some stability on some of your rosters.

 

Top Sleeper Picks:

 

Brendan Todd- We liked Todd as one of our recommendations last week before he pulled out of the Quicken Loans. In his three years on the tour, Todd seems to play some of his best golf June to August, which might mean he is comfortable with the heat from his Georgia days. This year has been no different as Todd has caught fire with a T12 at The Open, T6 at Greenbrier, and T15 at Travelers in his last three events. Last year he took at unexciting 45th, which is his only appearance at the Bridgestone. Statistically Todd ranks 187th in driving distance, 7th in driving accuracy, 80th in greens in regulation, 46th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 4th in strokes gained putting, and 94th in total driving. As we have seen in the past, Todd’s putter can get scorching hot and if it does, he will be able to be a factor in this tournament.

Russell Henley- A nice 2015 for Henley has produced 16 made cuts in 19 events played with three Top 10s including a 3rd at Hyundai, 4th at Shell, and 5th at 5th at Greenbrier, so he has some upside. He also looked good in his last outing with a T20 at The Open. Henley has some experience on Firestone Country Club and delivered a 41st last year and 27th in 2013. He ranks 42nd in driving distance, 47th in driving accuracy, 77th in greens in regulation, 107th in strokes gained tee-to-green, and 7th in strokes gained putting. Like Brendan Todd, he is a very good putter and it can help propel him way up the standings. We are looking for a guy who can surprise and think Henley is one of those guys.

Robert Streb- He seems to play really good golf on any course or any field. Streb has seven Top 10s in 24 events played this season with a runner-up and a win. He has also shown propensity to play well in big events with strong fields placing T18 at The Open, T30 at The players, and T42 at The US Open, each time easily outperforming his price. Streb is perpetually underpriced in these stacked fields and we are taking advantage of it. He has been playing extremely lately with a T14 at John Deere, T2 at Greenbrier, and T18 at Memorial. This will be his first appearance in the WGC Bridgestone, but we are not concerned with that. He ranks 45th in driving distance, 112th in driving accuracy, 9th in greens in regulation, 31st in strokes gained tee-to-green, 30th in strokes gained putting, and 44th in total driving. His price again is lower that we think it should be, and for that reason he will be on many of our rosters this week producing value.

Danny Lee- Outside of the U.S Open and The Open Championship, Lee has played tremendous golf over the past month and a half. The fact that both Opens were on links style courses leads us to believe that was the problem for Lee. Outside of those he has a T4 last week, T3 at John Deere, win at Greenbrier, and T25 at Travelers. As with Kaymer his season long statistics do not tell the entire story with Lee, since it has been just lately that he has caught fire. He is a very good putter and ranks 33rd on the PGA Tour and ranks 83rd in strokes gained tee-to-green. At $7,700 on Draftkings he presents a lot of value and should be a fixture in your cash games along with Brooks Koepka.

 

Best of luck to all of you.  Let us know of your results and if you are in the running for a nice GPP, so we can add to your cheering section.

-Fantasy Golf Insider

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