Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- Waste Management Phoenix Open

OVERVIEW

One of my favorite non-major events is upon us. If you don’t watch golf on the weekends I strongly suggest doing so this week at some point. The PGA Tour tried to tame the fun on the 16th hole last year, but the crowd and the players were still able to put on a good show. A lot of narratives this week will be surrounding the Super Bowl and Phil’s bets, Jon Rahm (Arizona State University alum) returning to his home course and Rickie’s poor decision making last year on the 17th hole where he chose to hit driver instead of a lesser club. Accuracy off the tee isn’t a must, but if you’re not very long off the tee it’ll help your chances as shown last year by Danny Lee (42nd in DD, 1st in DA) and Jon Curran (56th in DD, T3 in DA). These are the outlier performances that can help you win GPP’s this week (not these specific players, but identifying players that fit this mold). The bombers will get all the attention this week and rightfully so, but don’t ignore those that average 295+ yards and are strong ball strikers as they have been able to have success here as well. As far as DraftKings’ pricing goes, apparently they want everyone to roster Spieth and/or Matsuyama this week as pricing is Charmin-eque soft. Leaving money on the table has been the way to go the last two weeks, and it could be this week as well.

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

o The Course
• TPC Scottsdale
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,216 yards
• Greens: Bermuda
o Location: Phoenix, Arizona
o Expected scoring: The course is fairly easy compared to last week, weather won’t be an issue as it rarely is outside of a brisk wind from time to time so I think if we can target 5-6 guys in the -14 range that should be enough to take down some GPP’s this week.
o Past Champions:
• 2016: Hideki Matsuyama -14 in a playoff over Rickie Fowler
• 2015: Brooks Koepka -15 over Hideki Matsuyama, Ryan Palmer & Bubba Watson [-14]
• 2014: Kevin Stadler -16 over Graham DeLaet & Bubba Watson [-15]
• 2013: Phil Mickelson (3) -28 over Brandt Snedeker [-24]
• 2012: Kyle Stanley -15 over Ben Crane [-14]

KEY STATS TO TARGET

o Strong Emphasis – SG:OTT, SG:T2G, Greens or Fringe In Regulation, Birdie Or Better
o Important – Par 4 Scoring, Par 5 Scoring, Scrambling, Bogey Avoidance, SG: Putting

STARS:

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $11,700)
• Course History: Win – 2nd – 4th
• Form: 33rd – 27th – 2nd – Win – Win
• Stats: 17th – SG:OTT, 3rd – SG:APP, 103rd – SG:P, 4th – SG:T2G, 65th – DD, 67th – DA, 35th – GIR, 4th – Birdie Avg, 15th – Prox, 46th – Scrambling, 6th – P4 BoB, 13th – P5 BoB
• Other – Even though the stats above are from last year I have to mention where he’s at this year in 8 measured rounds. 1st in SG: ARG, 2nd Birdie Average (6 birdies per round), 1st Scoring Average (68.72), 4th P4 BoB, 2nd P5 BoB, and 3rd in total BoB %. He’s on his game thus far and I don’t see that slowing down. He proved the nay-sayers wrong at the Sony even though he had a poor showing on the weekend on a course that’s much tougher than what he’ll see this week. Mats and Thomas should be 1a & 1b. this week for GPP’s and if JT had better CH, he’d be in play for cash as well.

Justin Thomas (DK $11,500)
• Course History: MC – 17th
• Form: Win – Win – 4th
• Stats: 97th – SG:OTT, 20th – SG:APP, 131st – SG: P, 53rd – SG:T2G, 24th – DD, 94th – GIR, 35th – Birdie Average, 66th – Prox, 151st – Scrambling, 59th- P4 BoB, 30th – P5 BoB
• Other – Like Matsuyama, Thomas’ stats from last year don’t explain what he’s been doing this year so to paint a better picture here’s where he falls this year in 12 measured rounds – 4th – SG:OTT, 7th – SG:APP, 9th – SG: P, 4th – SG:T2G, 12th – DD, 27th – GIR, 2nd – Birdie Avg, 11th – Prox, 29th – Scrambling, 1st – P4 BoB, 43rd – P5 BoB, 2nd – Total BoB%. I don’t think we can start looking at 2017 stats yet for most players, but Thomas is close to hitting the threshold primarily because he’s playing much better than he did last year. Can he go for the three peat this week? I think if he continues to putt as well as he has been, he will. His proximity and putting have been the biggest differences in his game this year.

Rickie Fowler (DK $9,500)
• Course History: 2nd – 46th – MC – MC – 26th – 13th – 2nd – 58th
• Form: MC – 3rd (Hero)
• Stats: 15th – SG:OTT, 47th – SG:APP, 64th – SG:P, 8th – SG:T2G, 23rd – DD, 113th – DA, 15th – GIR, 41st – Birdie Avg, 97th – Prox, 21st – Scrambling, 36th – P4 BoB, 22nd – P5 BoB
• Other – For the very small percentage of players that chose to play Fowler last week, you were let down and if you paired him with the likes of Day or DJ as a 1-2 punch, you were looking at a 4/6 lineup before you finished your 2nd beverage at your local establishment. This week we’re jumping back on in all formats as Fowler let one get away last year and I don’t think he makes that mistake this year. I can’t say for a fact that he’ll win, but he’ll be in the mix all week and should be low owned again in GPP’s. I’d go Hideki in cash, Fowler (or both) in GPP’s.

ALSO CONSIDER – Jordan Spieth (DK $12,000) showing up means he’s sticking to his word on playing more events this year, but I don’t know how to process this. He’s really good at golf and my guess is he will play well. It’ll be nice to see someone take ownership away from Mats, Fowler and Watson, but it’s scary too because it makes you decide if you’re going to roster him. At this moment, I will play him in GPP’s for sure, but I don’t know where I will sit on the overweight/underweight fence. He finished 7th here in his debut and comes in off back to back 3rd place finishes. Patrick Reed (DK $8,900) is in play this week as he’s considered a value play that’s underpriced. His game hasn’t been exceptionally sharp in early rounds this year, so if he does make the cut this week I’d like him as a rounds 3 & 4 player if you’re playing in the FanDuel beta games as a GPP play and as a general GPP play on DraftKings. Brooks Koepka (DK $9,100) disappointed the heck out of people at this event last year as a lot of us thought he’d give us a repeat of the year prior. He makes for a solid play in both formats as his game fits the course and vice versa.

 

VALUE PLAYS:

Gary Woodland (DK $9,000)
• Course History: 33rd – MC – 37th – 16th – 26th – 5th – 53rd
• Form: 20th – 6th
• Stats: 12th – SG:OTT, 30th – SG:APP, 122nd – SG:P, 12th – SG:T2G, 10th – DD, 23rd – GIR, 52nd – Birdie Avg, 91st – Prox, 59th – Scrambling, 72nd – P4 BoB, 9th – P5 BoB
• Other – Woodland slipped last week after sitting in the Top 5 for 75% of the event. Think of this as a blessing because the people who used him are probably disappointed with the result and will look in other spots this week. The thing is, his game is still better than its ever been (his words) and conditions were difficult on a course that played tougher than the course they’ll be on this week. I like Woodland more this week than last.

Brendan Steele (DK $8,200)
• Course History: 17th – 26th – 6th – 6th – 5th – 53rd
• Form: 20th – 6th – 6th
• Stats: 26th – SG: OTT, 57th – SG:APP, 149th – SG: P, 49th – SG:T2G, 20th – DD, 25th – GIR, 90th – Birdie Average, 82nd – Prox, 162nd – Scrambling, 93rd – P4 BoB, 36th – P5 BoB
• Other – Steele’s numbers from 2015-2016 are a bit different than they are this year through 14 measured rounds as well so I feel compelled to list this year’s stats: 30th – SG:OTT, 20th – SG:APP, 64th – SG:P, 16th – SG:T2G, 54th – DD, 11th – GIR, 21st – Birdie Avg, 39th – Prox, 1st – Scrambling, 72nd – P4 BoB, 11th – P5 BoB. With that being said he’s putting much better, hitting more greens in regulation and scrambling his ass off which is a very good sign of things to come because it means he’s not losing strokes in situations where he would last year. His form shows he’s a stronger player in weaker events, but he still played well at a tough course last week where he couldn’t get anything going for a full round – he basically did enough to not shoot himself out of the tournament.

Kevin Na (DK $7,500)
• Tournament History: 24th – 26th – 19th – 36th – 5th – MC – 53rd – 3rd – 4th – 67th – 2nd
• Form: 36th
• Stats: 155th – SG:OTT, 2nd – SG:APP, 79th – SG: P, 45th – SG:T2G, 170th – DD, 64th – GIR, 32nd – Birdie Avg, 29th – Prox, 89th – Scrambling, 11th – P4 BoB, 119th – P5 BoB
• Other – Lock in cash game Kevin and move on. The interesting thing on him this week will be ownership in GPP’s. Na has the nappy factor to cash in on and while I don’t think he can get it done this week, he makes for a very strong value play at this price in all formats. If it does all come together for him and he’s hoisting the trophy come Sunday, he’ll be another name to cash in on the Nappy Factor narrative in the last 12 months.

ALSO CONSIDER – Harris English (DK $8,700) makes for a great rounds 1-2 play on FanDuel as he typically starts strong and fades on the weekend. For DraftKings purposes he meets our necessary criteria as a birdie maker who’s long off the tee and again, is a salary relief value play. English was in the thick of things early Sunday morning, but did Harris English things on the back nine and ended up finishing T14 at Torrey. Phil Mickelson (DK $8,400) will be the mega chalk this week, and I’m fine with the play even with the way he’s been playing in two starts this year. He’s only missed three cuts in eleven years here, so lock him in as a cash game play if you don’t want to pay for Matsuyama. Webb Simpson (DK $7,900) took last week off and will probably be cash game chalk after the other touts get their articles posted. Having only missed one cut in six appearances it’s warranted, but at the end of the day it’s still Webb Simpson we’re talking about. If I’m not forced to play Webb in cash I won’t, but I’m definitely interested in having him in GPP’s. Matt Kuchar (DK $7,400) is basically free, take him & Phil in cash and worry about the other 4 spots to fill.

 

DEEP DIVERS:

William McGirt (DK $7,400)
• Course History: 24th – 30th – 19th – 32nd – 22nd
• Form: 49th – 9th
• Stats: 36th – SG:OTT, 63rd – SG:APP, 29th – SG:P, 41st – SG:T2G, 118th – DD, 51st – GIR, 72nd – Birdie Avg, 101st – Prox, 48th – Scrambling, 53rd – P4 BoB, 122nd – P5 BoB
• Other – Has been nothing but solid every year at this event. He falls in the category of “not long off the tee, but solid with his irons” and could be a huge difference maker in both cash & GPP’s this week. He’s been a perfect five for five with three Top 25’s and isn’t a sexy play at all so I assume he’ll have some low ownership this week.

Bryce Molder (DK $6,800)
• Course History: 6th – 70th – 29th – 24th – 15th – 62nd – 8th
• Form: 41st – 50th – 49th
• Stats: 137th – SG:OTT, 160th – SG:APP, 11th – SG:P, 111th – SG:T2G, 164th – DD, 137th – Birdie Avg, 113th – Prox, 2nd – Scrambling, 132nd – P4 BoB, 146th – P5 BoB
• Other – Molder seems to have TPC figured out having made the cut in all seven appearances and providing Top 10 upside in two of those, most recently as his 6th place finish last year. He’s not a sexy play by any means, but he’ll give you decent salary relief for all formats. His consistency through three weeks has been solid enough for me in cash, and I think he cracks the Top 30 this week. His stats this year in 15 measured rounds are really bad, but he’s making up for it with his play around and on the greens. He’s also member of a nearby course, but says he doesn’t play this course in between events, so take that for what you want.

Patrick Rodgers (DK $6,600)
• Tournament History: 17th
• Form: 4th – MC – T10 – MC
• Stats: 38th – SG:OTT, 117th – SG:APP, 133rd – SG: P, 55th – SG:T2G, 26th – DD, 16th – GIR, 56th – Birdie Avg, 140th – Prox, 101st – Scrambling, 35th – P4 BoB, 83rd – P5 BoB
Other – The Golf version of Jim Halpert was featured in this article last week and was under 1% owned in GPP’s, obviously my reach isn’t as strong as I had hoped. I get that his game is tough to predict, but his length off the tee is such an advantage and we should be looking at him again this week even with a slight ownership bump thanks to his play last week. We’ve seen this out of P-Rodge before, where he can’t close on Sunday, but he won 11 times in college so he knows HOW to do it – it just hasn’t happened yet on Tour. He played well during this period last year but was unable to put together good back to back finishes so if it sounds like he may be chalky closer to lock I have no qualms about fading him in cash and reducing your ownerships in GPP’s.

Also consider – James Hahn (DK $7,300) is from the area and has played the course hundreds of times. He has said that he likes the fast greens and the fact that “you can hit it anywhere you want and try to make as many birdies as you can”, and that’s the kind of guy I want on my teams this week. It doesn’t hurt that he was the 36 hole leader here last year, but slid back on the weekend to a 17th place finish. Grayson Murray (DK $7,100) was a chalk play when rosters locked last week and he missed the cut. I doubt people go back to him this week, but they should in GPP’s at the very least. He ranked 4th in driving distance, 1st in birdie average and 1st in the All-Around ranking on the Web.com Tour so I’m chalking last week’s missed cut up to a blip on the radar and going back to him this week. Roberto Castro (DK $6,900) is in the field this week and makes for a solid cash & GPP play. He hasn’t played here since 2014 where he finished 19th as well as finishing 16th the year before and comes in off a 28th place finish at Torrey Pines. Castro’s ball striking & putting should be the difference maker for him this week. He’s not super short off the tee either, so maybe this will be more of a sneaky cash play that garners 10% ownership from our peers in GPP’s. John Huh (DK $6,500) fell victim to the MDF last week, but most people will see the dreaded “MC” unless they look into it. He was 6th here last year and looks like a bounce back candidate this week on a much easier course.

 

GPP PLAYS:

Jon Rahm (DK $9,700): Well, he did it! I know I said I was going to leave him here until he won, but if you haven’t paid attention to how the 2016-2017 season has gone let me remind you that Justin Thomas and Hideki Matsuyama have both won back to back events this year. If you need any kind of narrative to play a player, he’s your guy this week. The ASU alum finished 5th as an amateur in 2015 and looks to be a solid fit on a course that rewards the aggressive play that Rahm is known for. If he hadn’t won last week, I figured he’d be the chalk for One & Done’s, but now that the cherry has been popped, he could be much lower owned than expected and since he sets up so well here, I have no issues with burning him coming off the win.

Bubba Watson (DK $8,300): I’m not playing Bubba in cash this week primarily because of how bad he looked in Hawaii at the ToC. He finished 14th here last year, but he didn’t play well for the majority of the event and I’m not going to risk that in cash games. I will be playing him in GPP’s this week at a slightly overweight rate because he does possess the upside that we need in our lineups. He’s never won here, but he does have three Top 5’s in his last five appearances.

Tony Finau (DK $7,600): Another bomber who’s playing well, Finau should feast on this course this week. He missed the cut last year, but finished 22nd the year before in his debut. Finau may be a fairly popular play after his Sunday at Torrey which saw him finish the day -1 in a tie for 4th.

Ryan Palmer (DK $7,100): Disappointed as the chalk in Hawaii so he’s sure to be lower owned than he should be this week. Palmer’s inaccuracy off the tee won’t be an issue this week as there’s plenty of room to move the ball between hazards. Two Top 5’s in his last four appearances, 24th last year. He likes how the course suits his natural draw ball flight, and we need someone who has positive takeaways from re-designed courses.

Robert Streb (DK $6,800): Streb’s heating up and I’m hoping no one is noticing. 2/2 in cuts made here with his best being a 10th in 2015. Averaging 303 yards off the tee is a good thing on a course that throws accuracy off the tee out the window and being a good putter should help increase his birdie or better average numbers. Finished 37th last year.

Kyle Stanley (DK $6,800): Finished 14th last week following his 36th place finish at the Sony. He won here in 2012 following a disappointing Sunday finish the week prior so there are some good memories for Stanley in Phoenix and he’s strung together two solid tournaments. He’s got sneaky upside and the course fits his game much better than Torrey did. He finished 45th last year after missing the cut in his two previous appearances at this event.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

– Pari (@hitthehighdraw)